UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Ribas Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds January 11

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night picks and predictions for January 11 with the main event headlined by Mackenzie Dern vs Amanda Ribas in a women’s strawweight fight. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.

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Mackenzie Dern vs Amanda Ribas: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, January 11	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Mackenzie Dern +160 vs Amanda Ribas -190
Rounds:	4.5 (Over -215 / Under +165)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN+

UFC Fight Night Predictions

Nurulio Aliev -520 vs Joe Solecki +390 

Solecki has one path to victory, and that’s to wrestle and grind out rounds, but Aliev is a  solid wrestler himself so Solecki is going to have to come up something really special in  this one.

Aliev had a nice win in his UFC debut against Alves where he got the wrestling and takedowns working, and he was able to hold control position for most of the fight. 

That being said, Aliev isn’t this amazing title contender, and he has some big holes in his game as his striking isn’t scaring anyone so while I think he wins, there’s no world  where I lay this price on him. Solecki is a talented wrestler and grappler and I think they could end up cancelling each other out in that department so take this fight to go the distance as I don’t see a finish as a strong possibility with these two.

Fatima Kline -800 vs Victoria Dudakova +550 

Kline is my favorite parlay piece on this card. Dudakova isn’t powerful, her striking isn’t notable, and her UFC career consists of a win over Nunes who dislocated her elbow 30 seconds into the fight, a win over Frey who is truly awful and isn’t in the UFC anymore (and Dudakova got taken down and controlled in the first round), and a loss to Sam Hughes.

Kline lost her UFC debut to Jasudavicius, but she was competitive with the wrestling and ground game, and she showed good cardio and activity in a fight she took  on short notice.

She’ll be able to wrestle and control Dudakova, and I expect this fight  to be one way traffic. Kline in an easy win is my prediction.

Magomed Gadzhiyasulov -225 vs Bruno Lopes +185 

Magomed has to be the worst 9-0 fighter I’ve seen with a UFC win. He beat Jose  Medina on Contender Series, and Medina is TERRIBLE, and Gadz couldn’t get the finish, and then he beat Brendson Ribeiro in his UFC debut, and he somehow went to  decision against Ribeiro and showed little to no upside.

His striking is meh, he doesn’t  really have a dynamic wrestling/takedown game to speak of, and he’s ripe to be beat.

I don’t know if Lopes is the guy as he’s coming off a Contender Series win, but it wasn’t a  great performance as he didn’t do much, but his opponent gassed in the second and he won with body shots.

Neither of these guys are good, but I’ll take a sprinkle on the underdog here as Gadz offers nothing special, and I think Lopes can hang with him on the feet and possibly win a couple of rounds. It’s not a client play, but be careful betting on someone named “Magomed” who can’t wrestle.

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Ernesta Kareckaite -298 vs Nicolle Caliari +240 

Kareckaite is a really good kickboxer who impressed on Contender Series with her volume and activity, and although she lost to Barbosa, she put on a good performance with her striking.

She was exposed with her bad takedown defense and defense on the ground, and Caliari is powerful with her takedowns, and is coming off a submission win on Contender Series where she took her opponent down, controlled her and wrapped up the arm.

Caliari can have success on the ground for sure in this one, but  unless she gets the finish, I think Kareckaite is going to have to much activity with the  striking, and if she just prevents 1-2 takedowns early, she’s going to tire out Caliari.

It’s a big price that I’m not willing to lay, but if you like Kareckaite to win, take her to win by decision as she’s not going to submit Caliari, and she’s a volume striker, not a big power  puncher.

Thiago Moises -198 vs Trey Ogden +164 

Moises just hasn’t looked great to me as he got beat really bad by Saint-Denis, and then  he beat a really bad Mitch Ramirez followed up by a loss to Klein where his volume was low, and he couldn’t get any pressure or momentum working, and I’m wondering if the wear and tear is catching up to him.

He’s only 29 years old, but he hasn’t shown any  explosiveness to me, and Trey Ogden should be able to stand and trade strikes or Ogden might be able to work the takedowns and ground game like he did against  Radzhabov.

Ogden is hittable on the feet, but I haven’t seen much from Moises to think he’s ready to outstrike or outgrapple Ogden. The underdog is the play for me in this one.

Marco Tulio -500 vs Ihor Potieria +380 

Potieria has 2 wins in the UFC, against Rua who was retiriing and Bryzczek who was  making his debut, and was terrible.

He’s gotten beat by everyone else as his cardio falls off a cliff after the first round, and he doesn’t have a ground game so he’s going to  have to win this fight on the feet, and probably early.

Tulio looked good on Contender  Series, and he has experience as he’s 12-1 so the stage isn’t going to be too big for him.

He has good striking, he can adapt to his opponents, and he’s a strong fighter that I noted would beat a bad UFC fighter in his debut after his Contender Series win, and I think Potiera is a bad UFC fighter.

Tulio’s striking is going to be to much for Potieria,  especially when we get to rounds two and three, and I think Tulio is going to start off his UFC career with a few wins until he gets a step up in competition. This price by itself is high, but it’s a solid parlay piece.

Jose Johnson -192 vs Felipe Bunes +160 

Both these guys are sloppy fighters, but I like the+160 on Bunes. Johnson really got worked over on the ground by Almabayev in his last fight, and while Bunes isn’t as good as Almabayev, he made his debut aganst Josh Van and had a good first round on the ground before he got tired and finished in round 2.

Now he has a full training camp, and  I expect his cardio to be better, and I don’t see where Johnson has big advantages. 

Johnson is tall, but doesn’t seem to know how to truly utilize his length, and at times it’s a disadvantage as he’s lanky and easy to control and takedown. This isn’t a big bet, but I’m getting +160 against a guy who is 1-2 in the UFC, and has shown real weakness on  the ground. Bunes will be the play.

Uros Medic -198 vs Punahele Soriano +164 

Soriano moved down a weigh division in his last fight, and he got the win against Baeza. His cardio looked much better, but his opponent was really bad in that fight so it didn’t  take much for him to get the win.

To be positive, he just looked much healthier and active at the new division, and the fact that he was active in the third round means good things for him.

He’s still a striker so him and Medic will probably go toe to toe in this one  where whoever lands the big shot first gets the win. In the end, I trust Medic a bit more so I’ll take him to win by KO.

Medic has never been to the scorecards, I don’t see why  this fight would be any different. He has big time power, and even though Soriano looked better in his last fight, I still don’t trust him against a dangerous fighter like Medic.

Austin Bashi -270 vs Christian Rodriguez +220 

The UFC has high hopes for Bashi, and for good reason. He has all the potential in the world, he can strike, he can wrestle, he’s powerful, and he’s undefeated. He was great  on Contender Series, and I think his upside is going to be too much for Rodriguez here. 

Rodriguez likes to grapple, but he was submitted by Erosa in his last fight, and his wins  in the UFC have been a bit underwhelming.

Most people think he should’ve lost against Dulgarian, and he won against Rosas when Rosas gassed after almost finishing him in  round one, and his decision win against Cameron Saiman wasn’t great.

His striking  isn’t good, and I think Bashi is going to figure out quickly that Rodriguez just doesn’t  have weapons he should be scared of.

Look for Bashi to be a bit timid to start the fight in his UFC debut, but to get comfortable in the second en route to victory.

Roman Kopylov -270 vs Chris Curtis +220 

I don’t agree with this line at all. Kopylov has won 5 out of his last 6 fights, but Chris  Curtis is fighter than Di Chirico, Soriano, Ribeiro and Cesar Almeida, and Almeida almost got the win as the fight went to split decision.

Kopylov’s striking has gotten a lot  better, but Curtis has incredible defense on the feet, and he’ll be throwing some  powerful shots back at Kopylov, and I can see Curtis’s body work doing some damage  here.

Kopylov might try and work in some wrestling and grappling, but Curtis has  outstanding takedown defense, and Curtis is going to have the better cardio as Kopylov has shown he can get tired at times later in the fights.

I see this as close to a pick em fight so I’ll gladly take the plus money on Curtis to win a close decision.

Cesar Almeida -290 vs Abdul Razak Alhassan +240 

Alhassan is a power puncher, but there aren’t many levels to his game and Almeida  shouldn’t have problems staying out of danger.

He’s a kickboxer who has made a great  transition to MMA as his striking is never an issue, but his wresting and clinch work has  translated well, and his kicks at range are going to be a problem for Alhassan.

Alhassan has cardio issues outside of the first round so if he doesn’t get the KO early, he’s in  trouble. All of Alhassan’s wins have come in round one except fo the 2nd round KO against Ribeiro, and he’s lost every decision he’s been to.

Almeida should show  patience early, and pull away the later the fight goes. A finish is possible from Almeida, and he can’t submit anyone so taking to win by finish or KO double chance is a great bet.

Santiago Ponzinibbio -110 vs Carlston Harris -110

This is one of the strangest co-mains I’ve ever seen. Ponz has lost 4 out of 5, and  Harris is coming off of getting flatlined by Khaos Williams early in the first.

Ponz should  be the better fighter, but he’s looked awfully slow and low volume recently, but that may  be good enough to beat Harris.

His striking is laughably bad, and he got knocked out  bad against Khaol in his last fight.

He beat Jeremiah Wells before that, but he was losing bad until he randomly pulled out an Anaconda Choke in the third round. This fight is going to be bad, and low quality so while I’ll take Ponz to get the win, I don’t recommend betting on it.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Mackenzie Dern +160 vs Amanda Ribas -190

Interesting fight here as Dern is going to be better with the clinch/takedown/ground  game, and Ribas is going to have the pace and volume here.

Ribas has been fighting  the top women in the division, but she’s only 3-4 in those fights, and her last win was a fight she was losing til the third round and her opponent gassed and she caught Pinheiro with a nice kick and finish.

Dern’s striking defense is bad, and even though  she got the win against Loppy, Dern got beat up on the feet and had damage to her eye so I think Ribas will have her moments on the feet.

This fight comes down to what can Dern do on the ground, and can she win big portions of rounds on the ground or get the  submission because I think her striking and lack of striking defense is a big liability. 

Both should have the cardio to go five rounds, so I’ll stay away from picking a winner,  and I’ll take this fight to go the distance.

I don’t see a KO, and Ribas isn’t submitting Dern, and Dern doesn’t have a submission win in her last eight fights. I see five close rounds in this one.

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