UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs Murphy Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds April 5

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night picks and predictions for April 5 with the main event headlined by Josh Emmett vs Lerone Murphy in a featherweight fight. The main card starts up at 9:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.

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Josh Emmett vs Lerone Murphy: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, April 5	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Josh Emmett vs Lerone Murphy
Rounds:	4.5 (Over -160 / Under +125)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 9:00pm ET / 6:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN+

UFC Fight Night Predictions

Loma Lookboonmee -600 vs Istela Nunes +420 

This fight is a joke. Nunes has 1 win since 2018. Nobody knew what COVID was. I  was 2 years away from joining Wagertalk.

Patrick Mahomes was in his first season as a starter. Taylor Hall was NHL MVP. The Shape Of Water was the Best Picture winner for the Oscars. You get the point.

She’s 0-4 in the UFC, and Loma has won 3 straight. Her striking, wrestling, everything is better. This is a solid parlay piece.

Vanessa Demopoulos -115 vs Talita Alencar -105 

Just take this fight to go the distance. Neither one of these fighters can finish. Alencar is a grappler who has gone to decision in her CS and UFC fights, and her striking is bad.

Demopoulos got finished in her last fight, but that was an exception as her previous 6 fights went the distance, and Vanessa protested that Amorim grabbed the gloves, and she was right.

Demo can get taken down, but she’s active from the bottom so I don’t see Alencar getting the finish if it goes to the ground, and Alencar is an experienced grappler who won’t get submitted. Lean to Demopoulos to get the win, but the over is the way to go here.

Victor Henry -198 vs Pedro Falcao +164 

Falcoa put on a really uninspiring performance in his UFC debut as he pushed Hugo up against the fence, and didn’t do much with it, and he got tired as the fight went on so not  great optics for him.

Henry isn’t great, but he’s active on the feet, and has loads of experience dealing with the low level grappling and wrestling that Falcao will show him. 

He got submitted in his last fight, but his striking was fine against Jourdain who’s a much bigger fighter than Henry, and Henry was submitted when he was on top and in control of Jourdain, he just made a really dumb mistake that I don’t think he’ll make again.

Honestly, I think Falcao is pretty bad, Henry should win this one.

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Daniel Frunza -166 vs Rhys McKee +130 

Frunza is making his UFC debut after a lacklust performance on Contender Series. He  got his ass kicked in the first round, and then his opponent completely gassed and  Frunza got the finish, but make no mistake, he was bad.

His takedown defense was bad, his striking defense wasn’t great, and his striking on the feet only worked when his  opponent was dead tired. Is McKee a great fighter? No. Is he explosive? No. Is he  better than Frunza? Absolutely.

He’s lost his 2 UFC fights since his return, but one was  a split to Chidi Njokuani who is coming off a nice win, and I think he’s going to be able to  clinch and work the dirty boxing long enough to get the better of Frunza.

This fight probably goes the distance, but I’ll gladly fade the debutant in this one. McKee needs a win desparately to keep his roster spot so I expect a spirited effort from him against a guy who was awful on CS. Easy play for me on the dog.

Dione Barbosa -480 vs Diana Belbita +360 

Barbosa ALL DAY in this one. Belbita isn’t going to be able to keep up with the physicality and wrestling of Barbosa, and I don’t even know if Belbita can keep up with the striking.

Barbosa had a really tough couple of fights to start her UFC career, but she got the win against a tough kickboxer in Kareckaite, but Miranda Maverick was able to  defeat her using the ground game advantage, but Belbita doesn’t possess those skills. 

Barbosa will use her striking to set up the wrestling, and I see a lot of control time for Barbosa against the fence and on the ground. It’s a steep price, but this should be in your parlays this week.

Daniel Santos -180 vs Davey Grant +150 

It’s been almost 2 years since we last saw Santos, and I’m not sure why he had the long  layoff, but I think he’ll have success here.

He has powerful striking, and he’s shown the ability to get takedowns and hold guys down, and Grant has a decent ground game, but at age 39 I’m not sure he’s going to have the speed and power to keep up for all 3 rounds.

Grant’s striking is good, but it’s just not as devestating as Santos’s, and I think  that will be the difference. Santos will have the bigger moments on the feet, but Grant is tough guy to finish as he’s never been knocked out. I think Santos edges out Grant on the scorecards, Santos by DEC is the pick.

Luis Gurule -205 vs Ode Osbourne +170 

Ode has lost 3 in a row, and his most recent loss to Ronaldo Rodriguz is not aging well  as Rodriguez looked bad last Saturday in his loss.

Ode has shown bad fight IQ in the past, and his takedown defense and ground game has been bad recently as he’s been submitted twice in his last 3 fights, and then against Rodriguez he had the chance to finish Rodriguez with a choke, and he couldn’t finish it.

On the feet, his striking is ok, but  it’s not scary, and his volune isn’t great either. He shouldn’t have to worry about Gurule taking him down as Gurule is a striker so Ode will have to avoid the big shot, and piece up Gurule on the fight.

As bad as Ode’s ground game has been, Gurule’s is non existant and he barely escaped CS with a split decision win over an opponent that I wasn’t too impressed with.

Some of these CS fighters making their debut have looked bad in the UFC, and I have a feeling Gurule may be in a bit over his head.

Ode is a UFC veteran, I think he’ll show Gurule things that Gurule won’t be ready for, I’ll ride with Ode one more time to get the win.

Torrez Finney -238 vs Robert Valentin Frey +195 

Valentin lost to Loder in TUF finale, and he was dominated on the ground, which is not a  good sign when you’re fighting Finney.

Finney is a tank that will pick anyone up and  he’ll slam them, jump on them and land ground and pound. The issue is he’s so big, and has so much muscle that he can get tired if he doesn’t get the early finish, and  that’s what this is going to come down to.

If Finny gets him on the ground early, he can end this fight quick, but I think Valentin is going to give him some problems.

Valentin has really powerful striking, and if he can get some early damage going on Finney, he can slow him down, and all Valentin needs to do is get out of the first round, and I think Finney gets exhausted.

I don’t think this fight goes the distance, I’ll take Valentin to survive early, and get the finish with Finney gasses in the 2nd or 3rd round.

Brad Tavares -258 vs Gerald Meerschaert +210 

I don’t know what we did to deserve this fight, but this will be a snoozer. Meerschaert needs to get this to the ground to work his submission game, but Tavares is really tough to take down so it’s an uphill battle for sure.

Tavares has lost 4 out of 5 fights, he’s low  volume on the feet, but he won’t need to be too active to win a striking battle against Gerald. I don’t see Meerschaert getting Tavares down and keeping him there for long, I’ll take Tavares to win by decision here.

Kennedy Nzechukwu -325 vs Martin Buday +260 

You can’t have any confidence in Martin Buday despite his solid UFC record. He’s 5-1  in the UFC, but every one of the guys he’s beaten aren’t in the UFC anymore, and the one guy who is still left (Shamil Gaziev) KO’d him with nasty elbows that cut him bad. 

Buday’s last fight was a split decision win against Arlovski, and that was Arlovski’s last  fight for the UFC. Buday was being controlled against the fence for chunks of the fight, and somehow he let Arlovski land good punches when Arlovski was the oldest and  slowest he’s ever been.

Kennedy is coming off of 2 KO wins, albeit against 2 terrible  fighters in Barnett and Brzeski, but he showed he can finish fighters who aren’t as good as him.

Neither guy has great cardio so I don’t think either has the advantage the longer the fight goes, I just think Kennedy is going to be more crisp and stronger with his strikes. He should win this one.

Chang Ho Lee -155 vs Cortavious Romious +135 

Lee is the perfect example of what type of fighters are coming out of Road to UFC. He has quick hands, but not super polished or powerful. He can wrestle, and get takedowns, but opponents can reverse him. He has good cardio, and he’s hard to  knockout.

He’s a monster when he’s fighting Asian fighters at lower levels, but I don’t  know how he’s going to fare against UFC fighters. Honestly, Romious is more of the  same.

Last fight against Bolanos, he got the wrestling and takedowns going, but he got  reversed every time and Bolanos walked away with the win.

Both these guys have big  holes, I won’t be betting this fight because I wouldn’t be surprised by any outcome, but I’ll lean Lee to get the win. I think he’s just a bit quicker, and I don’t think he’ll have trouble reversing the wrestling of Romious.

Joanderson Brito -205 vs Pat Sabatini +170 

Simple breakdown. Sabatini needs to get this to the ground so he can work for a  submission because on the feet, Brito will destroy him.

Sabatini is going to shoot as  soon as the fight starts, but Brito can wrestle, and he has several submission wins in the UFC so he’s no slouch in those departments.

I think the lack of striking from Sabatini is  going to be too mch for him to overcome, and if gets damaged at all, he’s going to struggle mightily to get this to the ground. Brito should win, I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets the KO.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Josh Emmett vs Lerone Murphy

I’ve been so impressed with Murphy in his last 2 fights.

He’s undefeated, but I haven’t been blown away by him, but it feels like he’s taken his game to the next level as he won a bruising, tough 5 round match against Barboza, and then against Ige he got dropped in the first, but he recovered and then did really good damage in the next 2 rounds with striking, and knees and his grappling was great, and he won rounds 2 and 3 to get the win.

He showed big time toughness, cardio, and power in the last 2 fights, but  you do have to worry about the striking defense.

He’s hittable, and Josh Emmett can hit  really hard as we saw in his last fight. He’s only lost to Topuria and Yair Rodriguez  recently so the 40 year old only loses to the top guys, but you have to wonder if the 40 year old can keep up for 5 rounds.

The longer this fight goes, the bigger advantage for  Murphy I believe, but Emmett can put your lights out instantly.

I’ll lean Murphy to get the win pre-fight, but this could be a great live betting situation. If Emmett has a good first round, but doesn’t get the KO, a good bet on Murphy might materialize.

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