UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs Gamrot Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds September 23

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for September 23 with Rafael Fiziev vs Mateusz Gamrot headlining the event in a lightweight fight. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV.

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Rafael Fiziev vs Mateusz Gamrot: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, September 23	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Rafael Fiziev -150 vs Mateusz Gamrot +130
Rounds:	4.5 Rounds (Over -125 / Under +105)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN+

UFC Fight Night Predictions

Montserrat Rendon +205 v Tamires Vidal -250

Tamires Vidal had a fantastic UFC debut when she knocked out Ramona Pascual with a body shot, and there’s no doubting her power, but her cardio is a big question mark.

Coming into that fight, she really struggled with it, but now with a UFC win under her belt, her training has no doubt gone to the next level. She’ll face Montserat Rendon who is making her UFC debut, and I’m not very high on Rendon.

She’s fought lackluster competition, and has never finished an opponent, and her last three opponents have a combined record of 10-7 in lower promotions.

Redon has good length, and throws a good jab, but she doesn’t have good strike defense as she got a bloody nose in her last fight.

Vidal will blast through that strike defense and get the win here, I would wait until props come out and play Vidal by KO.

Mizuki Inoue -250 v Hannah Goldy +205

Hannah Goldy is 1-3 in the UFC, and she has muscles and looks strong, but her cardio falls off a cliff, and her lone win in the UFC was in the first round against a bad fighter.

Mizuki Inoue makes her return after a three year absence due to a torn ACL, and we last saw her losing to Amanda Lemos by decision where she performed will on the feet, but just got overwhelmed by the striking of Lemos.

It’s tough to predict how a fighter will look after a big layoff from a serious injury, but Goldy is just bad and I expect Inoue to start off tentative and then settle in as Goldy’s cardio goes away.

Inoue’s striking will wear her down over the three rounds, and unless Goldy gets a finish early in the fight, she won’t have the weapons or energy to win the later rounds. This probably won’t be an amazing fight to watch, but the pick is Inoue by decision.

Mohammed Usman -180 v Jake Collier +150

It doesn’t get much worse than this fight to be honest. These are two low-level heavyweights and I don’t expect to see a lot of action.

Usman is coming off a win against Junior Tafa where he clinched, took Tafa down and held on for dear life. He has decent power, but the stamina isn’t there, and his opponent doesn’t have a lot of weapons.

Jake Collier has lost three fights in a row, and he should be able to land some strikes on Usman, but other than that and trying to win the clinch game I think this is an uphill battle for him.

Usman is the pick, but there’s no reason to bet on this fight as there is no value anywhere.

Jacob Malkoun -485 v Cody Brundage +370

Cody Brundage is coming off one of the most strange performances we’ve seen against Sedriques Dumas. He looked completely disinterested, and he almost looked like he kinda forgot what to do.

He’s never had good cardio, and he’s a wrestler, and this sets up nice for Malkoun. Malkoun has the big advantage on the feet as he has quicker striking, and he probably has the edge on the ground, especially if Brundage fights like he did last fight.

Brundage will need an early finish as his cardio vanishes after the first round, and Malkoun has really good cardio. This is a great parlay piece to take Malkoun on the ML who has won three out of four.

Tim Means +164 v Andre Fialho -198

Tim Means has been around for a while, and if he loses this one, it’s probably his last UFC fight. He’s lost three in a row, and he’s 39 years old with 48 professional fights to his resume.

He lost to Alex Morono his last time out by guillotine, and he looked old and slow. Speaking of maybe having his last UFC fight, Andre Fialho has also lost three in a row as his chin and lack of striking defense has been exposed in his last three fights, but his striking is so much better and faster than Tim Means right now.

Fialho has the power advantage, but if there is a path to victory for Means, it’s to clinch and tire out Fialho, which is possible as Fialho’s cardio is a problem.

However, I’m not sure Means has much gas in the tank, and it should only be a matter of time before Fialho catches Means with head strikes and ends this fight.

If you want to wait until props come out, take the fight to not go the distance. Fialho is always a candidate to get knocked out by a random strike, and if Fialho wins it will probably be by finish.

Dan Argueta -185 v Miles Johns +154

Dan Argueta is a really good wrestler and grappler and he would’ve had a nice win against Ronnie Lawrence, but there was an early stoppage and Argueta did not get credited with the win, but make no mistake, he was dominating.

Before that he had a nice win against Nick Aguirre, after dropping his UFC debut to Damon Jackson. I like what I’ve seen from him as he can be a menace with the takedowns, and that will be the big difference in this fight.

I like Miles Johns, but his striking just doesn’t appear to be scary enough to worry Argueta about shooting in. Johns doesn’t have a high ceiling in any one part of his game, and Argueta’s ceiling with grappling and takedowns is pretty high.

In his last fight, Johns won the fight against Vince Morales, but Johns was the one with the bloody face, and he was 1-10 in takedown attempts. Argueta’s advantage on the ground will be the difference in this one.

Ricardo Ramos +115 v Charles Jourdain -135

I like Ricardo Ramos as the underdog in this one. Ramos is coming off a crazy KO win with a spinning elbow, and it’s not the first time he has used the spinning attacks effectively.

I just like the movement and unique striking from Ramos as he’s coming off a win against Chavez, and even though he lost to Tukhugov, it was an intense fight on the feet where he held his own.

Charles Jourdain is coming off a win against Kron Gracie that a terrible fight, and Jourdain did what he needed to do to secure the decision win, but it was not impressive. Before that, he lost to Nathaniel Wood and Shane Burgos, and I don’t think he performs well when he steps up in competition.

Jourdain was in a great fight against Nathaniel Wood, but he tired in the third and I think that cardio edge goes to Ramos, and the striking is pretty similar, but the defense of Jourdain can be exposed which I think leads to Ramos having better moments.

It should be a close fight, but I like Ramos to pull away on the scorecards late as he’ll have more energy and Jourdain will be wearing more damage.

Bryan Battle -192 v AJ Fletcher +160

I’ve been a Bryan Battle fan since I watched him on The Ultimate Fighter, and he’s been a cash cow going 4-1 in the UFC with his loss being to Rinat Fakhretdinov, no shame in that.

He has developed real power with his striking and he’s finished his last two wins inside of a minute in the first round.

He’s a solid wrestler and very active on the ground if the fight gets there, and he should have the advantage almost anywhere in this fight. Fletcher does not have good striking defense, and is 1-2 in the UFC with his win being to Themba Gorimbo, a subpar fighter.

Fletcher is short and stocky, and his technique just isn’t there. Battle will be much taller and longer, and he’s really big for this weight division, which is bad news for Fletcher and his short arms.

Fletcher will get peppered with shots on the feet, and if he tries to take it to the ground, Battle will be prepared and can stuff takedowns or reverse positions.

Battle has good cardio so if this fight makes it into the third round Battle will be more than capable of winning the last round as Fletcher could be pretty beat up by then.

We’ve made a lot of money betting on Bryan Battle since he joined the UFC, I expect to make more money on him this weekend.

Marina Rodriguez -310 v Michelle Waterson-Gomez +250

This might be it for Michelle Waterson-Gomez as she’s lost three in a row and is 1-5 in her last six with her win being a split decision.

These two fought two years ago and Rodriguez won that fight, and I don’t think the outcome here will be much different.

Fading female fighters with Onlyfans accounts has been a profitable betting strategy as those fighters just don’t have the focus as other fighters, and the Karate Hottie seems more intent on social media than she does winning fights.

Rodriguez is just more crisp with striking, and more powerful anywhere the fight goes, and she’s lost two straight and ready to get back on the winning track. The price is warranted here and Rodriguez ML is a solid parlay piece as I don’t see the path to victory for Gomez.

Bryce Mitchell -192 v Dan Ige +160

I don’t understand this line, I really don’t. Bryce Mitchell is a one dimensional fighter as a wrestler, and he was undefeated beating his first five opponents in the UFC, and then he ran into Ilia Topuria who had the athletic ability and technique to stuff Mitchell’s takedowns, and Topuria quickly turned into a one-sided butt kicking getting the finish in round two.

I don’t see why Dan Ige can’t do the same thing to Mitchell. Dan Ige went on a tough three-fight losing streak, but he’s turned it around beating Damon Jackson and Nate Landwehr, and I really like what I’ve seen from him.

His striking has looked fantastic, and I think it will only take a few exchanges on the feet for Ige to soften up Mitchell who could be a bit shy about shooting in based on what Topuria did to him.

Maybe Mitchell gets Ige to the ground and dominates, but I’m guessing Ige has been working extensively on stuffing the takedowns, and if he’s successful in stuffing the takedowns he should win on the feet.

I think the wrong fighter is favored, and unless I’m missing something I like Ige to win by finish.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Rafael Fiziev -150 v Mateusz Gamrot +130

I know I’m on an island here, but I think Fiziev is overrated, and I think he loses here. He beat Rafael Dos Anjos who is past his prime, and has lost two out of three, and he beat Brad Ridell who has lost three in a row so they gave him a big step up in competition and Justin Gaethje humbled him as he dominated Fiziev.

Gamrot is an incredibly technical fighter that does a great job of controlling his opponent with grappling, and landing enough strikes to frustrate his opponent, and I don’t think Fiziev is going to be able to figure out the traps that Gamrot sets for him.

Fiziev has more power in his strikes, but Gamrot won’t allow himself to get into a brawl as that’s what happened agaisnt Dariush, and he lost.

In his next fight he controlled Jalin Turner, and although the fight wasn’t exciting it ended up being a Gamrot win.

Gaetje exposed some holes in the defense of Fiziev, and someone as fast and smart as Gamrot will take advantage of those, and he will probably have more surprised for Fiziev in the wrestling department. Fiziev continues to be overvalued, I’ll gladly take Gamrot with the plus money here.

Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot +130

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