UFC Fight Night: Gane vs Spivac Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds September 2

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for September 2 with Ciryl Gane vs Sergey Spivac headlining the event in a heavyweight fight. The main card starts up at 3:00pm ET from Accor Arena in Paris, France.

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Ciryl Gane vs Sergey Spivac: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, September 2	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Ciryl Gane -165 vs Sergey Spivac +140
Rounds:	2.5 Rounds (Over +150 / Under -165)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 3:00pm ET / 12:00pm PT
Arena:	Accor Arena in Paris, France
TV:	ESPN+

UFC Fight Night Predictions

Jacqueline Cavalcanti -290 v Zarah Fairn +245

Cavalcanti steps in as Hailey Cowan was supposed to fight Zarah Fairn, but Cowan had an injury that forced her to pull out.

The UFC loves Cowan, but the problem is she isn’t very good as she barely won in Contender Series, but Dana couldn’t help but to give the attractive blonde a contract she absolutely didn’t deserve.

She then lost her UFC debut to another fighter making her debut so the UFC needed to get Cowan a win immediately. Enter Zarah Fairn.

Fairn is really bad. She’s a big striker, but her strikes have no power behind them, she doesn’t know how to wrestle, and she has no upside and a low floor. She’s lost all three UFC fights, and in all three fights she looked bad.

She’s had trouble making weight, she’s just one of the worst on the roster. So this was UFC’s opportunity to get Fairn (she’s from France) a fight in France, get Hailey Cowan a win, and get Fairn her fourth loss in a row so they can cut her.

Everything was going to plan and then Cowan got hurt. Cavalcanti steps in, and she should dominate Fairn. Cavalcanti is a striker, but is way more powerful than Fairn, and has a nice array of kicks and counterpunches.

She’ll be able to walk Fairn down and land shots at will, and she won’t have to worry about big counterstrikes coming back from Fairn. This line should move a lot towards Cavalcanti so if you’re going to use her in a parlay, do it sooner rather than later.

Farid Basharat -245 v Kleydson Rodrigues +210

I like Basharat in this one, I just don’t know if the -245 is a fair price. Basharat is a fantastic fighter who is good on the feet and he uses his strikes to set up takedowns where he doesn’t do a ton of damage, but he holds opponents down, stays active, and wins the round.

His last fight was a unanimous decision win against Blackshear, and that win has aged well as Blackshear has looked good in his next two fights.

Rodrigues is a bit tough to handicap as he knocked out Shannon Ross early in his last fight, and he lost a close fight to CJ Vergara before that.

I like Basharat because he controls the pace, and has terrific movement on the feet that opens up his kicks and strikes which sets up the takedowns.

His game is a bit more controlled and mature than Rodrigues’s so I like him to win. If you want to bet on Basharat, wait til props come out and take him to win by decision as he’s not a finisher.

Morgan Charriere -291 v Manolo Zecchini

This is a real mismatch in my opinion as Charriere should roll in this one and it’s my favorite parlay piece on the card. Zecchini is 11-3, but has been fighting really bad competition.

He has plenty of finishes on his resume, but just looking at his last two finishes, his opponents were very sloppy and left themselves wide open to strikes.

He did his job, but he’s not buttoned up with his striking and overall offense, and his defense was exposed three fights ago when he lost to Sufiev who pressed Zecchini forward on the feet and then dominated with wrestling and grappling.

Charriere can do the exact same thing to Zecchini, and I expect that he will. Last fight for Charriere he showed great cardio as he finished his opponent late in round three, and I like him to get another win in this one.

Taylor Lapilus -180 v Muin Gafurov +155

I think we’re getting a nice price on the underdog here and that’s the best value in this fight. Lapilus has won five fights in a row, but it’s not against great competition.

His last three fights are against experienced fighters, but he’s been fighting Ares FC which I don’t think is as good as who Gafurov has been fighting.

Gafurov is 3-3 in his last six, but he’s lost to UFC caliber opponents including a loss to John Castaneda in his last fight where he fought really good, but got a point taken away.

He can strike and grapple and his cardio is pretty solid. Lapilus can finish fights with his strikes, but Gafurov can as well so I don’t understand why Gafurov is this big of an underdog.

This should be a close fight that takes place on the feet, I’ll take the underdog as I think the odds should be closer to even.

Ange Loosa -190 v Rhys Mckee +165

Interesting fight as Mckee lost two UFC fights, went to Cage Warriors and won three fights and made his return here against Loosa.

I believe this fight will mostly take place on the feet with both guys being able to find success with strikes and kicks, but Loosa has the advantage in takedowns and that’s what will give him the win here I believe.

Loosa was able to get the takedowns against AJ Fletcher in the last fight, and Mckee leaves himself pretty open for the takedowns.

The price is fair on Loosa ML, the the real value is going to be in the overs. I don’t see a finish in this fight as both guys are able to defend the strikes, and while Loosa should be able to get the takedowns, he’s not a finisher on the ground.

Joselyne Edwards -140 v Nora Cornolle +110

I’m not real impressed with either fighter at this point, but Cornolle does not seem like she’s UFC caliber. She won her last fight when she hit a front kick to the opponent’s knee, and the opponent got injured, but other than that she didn’t show much.

In her previous fight, she got taken down early in the first, but reversed the position and won by ground and pound, but the level of competition was pretty bad.

Edwards is a striker that wants this fight to take place on the feet, and I believe Cornolle will oblige, but I think Edwards will throw more volume and be more effective, especially in later rounds.

Cornolle hasn’t been to the third round in her last six fights while Edwards has won her last three fights by decision. Edwards isn’t a great UFC fighter, but she is still UFC caliber and I don’t see Cornolle being better.

Volkan Oezdemir -152 v Bogdan Guskov +132

I can’t believe this price isn’t Oezdemir -300. Volkan is 1-3 in his last four fights, but his losses have been to Krylov, Ankalaev, and Prochazka.

These are UFC championship caliber fighters. Guskov has fought in some shady leagues against some guys that went down pretty easily after a couple of strikes.

His last five fights haven’t gotten out of the first round, he doesn’t appear to have any UFC-quality skills, and someone like Oezdemir should dominate him.

I would expect Oezdemir to test the ground game of Guskov as the takedown should be there, but even if it stays on the feet I like Volkan to win on the feet.

The line completely confuses me, but maybe I’m right and this proves to be a bargain price…either way I’ll be betting Oezdemir.

Caolan Loughran -350 v Yanis Ghemmouri +275

Loughran makes his anticipated UFC debut, and the 8-0 Prospect will be looking for another finish as seven of his eight wins have come by finish.

He’s a really tough striker who does a nice job of settling into the fight and using round one to read his opponents to set up the finish in round two. His last four fights have been wins in the second round so he’s not afraid to go deeper into fights and he still has finishing power.

His opponent comes from BRAVE and is 12-1, but is not real impressive on film. In his last fight, he just pushed his opponent against the cage for the first round, then got a takedown in round two before a knee ended it, but he was pretty low volume against a bad opponent.

He won’t be able to do that against Loughran, and from what I’ve seen I believe Loughran wins this on the feet. It’s a good parlay piece as Loughran’s striking and cardio look great, and should be good enough to get the win for him here.

Thiago Moises -115 v Benoit Saint-Denis -105

This fight is unbettable in my opinion as it will be an absolute war, and anything could happen. Both guys are solid on the feet and on the ground, but I would give a slight edge to Thiago Moises on the ground.

This fight could get finished early with a submission or a KO or it could go the distance with these guys being almost equaled so there’s really no value anywhere in betting this fight.

William Gomis -160 v Lucas Almeida +140

This is a good stylistic matchup for Gomis as his kickboxing is better than Almeida’s. In Almeida’s last fight, he was dominated on the ground by Pat Sabbatini, but Gomis will want this to stay on the feet and he should have success.

Almeida has decent power, but he leaves himself open and Gomis’s movement and awkward attacking style will give him problems.

Almeida knocked out Trizano two fights ago, but Almeida was getting pieced up before that, and Trizano got damaged bad by a head clash so take that win with a grain of salt.

Gomis survived his last fight against Francis Marshall, and if you’re looking for weaknesses in Gomis’s game it’s that he doesn’t have much power, and he can be taken down and held there.

However, Almeida doesn’t seem to have the weapons to take advantage of those weaknesses, and I believe he’ll get touched up early and often with jabs and kicks.

Gomis should win, and if you’re looking for a good price, wait for the props to come out and take Gomis to win by decision.

Manon Fiorot -192 v Rose Namajunas +167

I’m pretty surprised to see Fiorot this big of a favorite in this fight. She hasn’t lost in the UFC, and she’s beaten good opponents like Mayra Beno Silva and Katlyn Chookagian, but to be almost 2-1 to someone like Rose who has beaten Weili Zhang seems a bit too generous.

The problem with betting on Ros Namajunas has nothing to do with her ability, it’s her mindset and what advice is she getting from her corner in the fight.

Her last fight against Carla Esparza was truly bizarre where her corner was telling her she was winning when it was clearly a very close fight, and it probably cost her a win.

She was so tentative and low volume, and if that version of Rose shows up, Fiorot is going to roll. However, if we get the focused and aggressive Rose who can show elite kicks and punches, I think she can absolutely overwhelm Fiorot and present Fiorot with power and speed that she hasn’t seen before.

Her fight against Esparza is going to be hard to get out of our heads, but I’m willing to bet that she comes out very focused and ready to go. I’ll take a sprinkle on the underdog here to get back to her winning ways with striking that will wear down Fiorot over the course of the fight.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Ciryl Gane -165 v Sergey Spivac +140

Ciryl Gane has lost two out of three, and it’s because he couldn’t stop the takedowns against Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou. It’s a massive problem for him against Spivac as Spivac has built up a lethal ground game getting him three wins in a row by finish.

If Spivac gets Gane to the ground, Spivac could absolutely work for a submission or ground and pound, but I believe that Gane has been working for a year on takedown defense, and he may not be able to stuff everything from Spivac, but I do believe he’ll slow Spivak down enough to keep it on the feet.

Gane will have a big striking advantage and over five rounds I see him wearing Spivac down with his long jabs and solid clinch game.

Gane’s last fight in Paris was a striking showcase against Tai Tuivasa resulting in a KO win for Gane, and I don’t think he’ll get the finish, but I do see him winning by decision with a solid striking performance.

Prediction: Ciryl Gane by Decision

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