UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Pereira Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds October 19

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night picks and predictions for October 19th with the main event headlined by Anthony Hernandez vs Michel Pereira in a middleweight fight. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.

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Anthony Hernandez vs Michel Pereira: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, October 19	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Anthony Hernandez -150 vs Michel Pereira +125
Rounds:	N/A
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN+

UFC Fight Night Predictions

Robelis Despaigne -360 vs Austen Lane +285

Despaigne has insane power on the feet, but we saw in his last fight that if he gets taken down he’s completely lost as Waldo Cortes-Acosta beat him in a fairly boring fight. I just don’t think Austen Lane can replicate the takedowns and ground game.

Lane is a former football player who had a nice MMA career going into the UFC, but he’s lost 2 fights and had a no contest in his other fight.

He’s wreckless, doesn’t defend well, and I understand why Despaigne is this big of a favorite. Lane is probably going to try and stand and strike with Despaigne, and it’s not going to go well for him.

Don’t blink in this fight, take this fight to not start round 2 as Lane is probably going to go for broke early, and someone (mostly likely Lane) will be KO’d.

Elise Reed -162 vs Jessica Penne +130

You’re never wanting to lay juice on Elise Reed, but when she’s fighting 41 year old Jessica Penne, I’ll make an exception.

Penne’s first professional fight was in 2006, and it’s been an amazing career, but she’s way past her prime and has no upside.

She was completely dominated in her last fight against Ricci, eventually getting finished in the second round, and back in 2022 she was beaten by Emily Ducote, not a great look.

Reed prefers the fight to be on the feet as her ground game is pretty bad, but I don’t think she’ll have to worry about Penne getting her on the ground.

Reed is 10 years younger, is faster, and has enough striking and movement to win rounds, but I don’t think it’s going to be a dominating win.

Should Reed win? Yes. Am I excited to lay -162? No. But we probably shouldn’t pass up an opportunity to fade a 41 year old Jessica Penne. Reed is the pick.

Melissa Martinez -148 vs Alice Ardelean +124

I’m trying to be respectful here, but to get to the point…both these women are awful UFC fighters so credit to the matchmakers for putting them against each other.

Ardelean just lost to Shauna Bannon (who is terrible), and Martinez just lost a unanimous decision to Elise Reed.

Ardelean is a social media star who loves posting jokes about sex, and it’s content you would expect from a teenage boy, but she has a ton of followers, and she’s found her niche, but it’s just not as a UFC fighter.

Martinez is going to be faster on the feet with more volume of striking, but Ardelean showed she can get a takedown and get some clinch control against the fence, but there’s no way I’m betting on either of them.

Take the fight to go the distance or Martinez by decision if you want, but anything can happen in this fight.

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Joselyn Edwards -245 vs Tamires Vidal +200

Vidal got dominated by Melissa Gatto in her last fight, but Gatto has looked great recently so I don’t take much away from that. What concerns me is that Vidal seems to have lost what got her to the UFC.

She was a power striker that was fearless, and she got a KO in her debut, but her last 2 fights (both losses) she’s looked tentative, cautious and almost a big confused about what to do.

She’s lost weight as well, but I’m not sure it’s been to her advantage. She has to get back to her power striking, and she’s a live dog here against Edwards who has lost 2 straight, and Edwards can be really low volume, and get caught in these really long stretches with no action.

She can get taken down, and she can lose clinch battles so there are holes in her game if Vidal is focused and aggressive.

I’m not willing to bet my money that she will suddenly put it all together, and I’m not betting on Edwards at this price so just take this fight to go the distance as a parlay piece.

Jean Matsumoto -265 vs Brad Katona +215

I will take this fight to go the distance, I don’t care who wins. Matsumoto is undefeated, but he’s not an unstoppable force.

He won by decision on Contender Series, and even though he finished Dan Argueta, Argueta was able to wrestle and win moments in the clinch and on the ground.

Matsumoto has crisp and elite striking, but it isn’t scary power, and I don’t think Katona is going to be worried about the big KO shot.

Katona will have the volume and accuracy to keep up with Matsumoto so I think this is a fight that is much closer than the odds suggest.

Katona has 13 fights that have gone the distance in his last 14, and Matsumoto only has 3 finishes in his last 9 fights against worse competition than Katona. This one should get to the scorecards.

Asu Almabayev -185 vs Matheus Nicolau +154

This fight really comes down to if you think Nicolau is no longer a top fighter. He won his first 4 fights in the UFC, but got flatlined against Brandon Royval and Alex Perez, and his last fight against Perez was a terrible look. He was tentative, always backing up, and he was so slow that Perez was able lunge in and catch him hard on the chin for the KO.

If you think he’s peaked and isn’t an elite fighter, you’re betting against him. Almabayev has lived up to the hype so far winning all 3 of his UFC fights with solid striking and a really good takedown and ground game.

If I’m using just my eye test, Almabayev has looked light years better than Nicolau lately, but I’m struggling to believe he’s really fallen off a cliff this bad.

I’m not willing to bet on Nicolau, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this fight ends up closer than most would expect, and like a lot of these fights on this card I think it goes past 1.5, and maybe even the distance. Nicolau’s chin may be weak, but Almabayev only has 1 KO in his last 12 fights.

Daniel Pineda -130 vs Darren Elkins +110

The play is Elkins because he’s plus money, but this isn’t a confident pick. I don’t think Elkins is good, but Pineda is worse.

He has 2 wins in the UFC against Herbert Burns who is awful, and Tucker Lutz who is also terrible. Nathaniel Wood worked him over pretty good in his last fight especially with leg kicks and a cardio advantage.

Pineda offers very little on offense as he’s slow and plodding, and his ground game isn’t good. Elkins is sloppy, but he’s very aggressive, he can wrestly and get takedowns, and he can turn fights into street fights, and if he can do that here, I think he can win and even finish Pineda.

He finished TJ Brown in his last fight by taking him down, and outworking him on the ground leading to a submission. This won’t be a pretty fight, but those are the fights that Elkins tends to do well in. I’ll take him at plus money.

Brady Hiestand -155 vs Jake Hadley +130

I’ll gladly take Hadley here at plus money over Hiestand. Hiestand is coming off a submission win against Armfield, but that fight was tied going into the third round, and Hiestand was able to clinch, and get Armfield down and get the submission, but I don’t think he’ll be able to do that against Hadley, and I don’t think Hiestand is a good striker so I don’t see where he has a big advantage.

Hadley had lost to Durden and Charles Johnson in back-to-back fights, and wasn’t looking that good, but he put on a great fight against Loughran where he put on a surprisingly good striking display to get the win.

He looked sharp on the feet, had plenty of cardio, and I think if he fights like that here, he’ll edge out Hiestand.

Hadley only got taken down once against Loughran, and if he can avoid losing rounds because of the wrestling, he’ll absolutely be a live dog to win on the feet.

Hiestand showed good cardio in his last fight, but I think Hadley’s is even better. Hadley at plus money is a great play.

Charles Johnson -230 vs Sumudaerji +190

Sumudaerji is only 28 years old, but I feel like his days are numbered in the UFC. I go back to the insane war against Matt Schnell where he almost had Schnell finished 17 times, and couldn’t get it done and then he got choked out while absorbing a ton of damage, and then it was revealed he had a torn ACL.

He came back in December of 2023, but was submitted in the first round by Tim Elliott. The good news for him is that Charles Johnson prefers to stand and strike so I don’t think Sumu is going to be taken down like what Elliott did. Normally, Charles Johnson is the one being taken down, but that’s not Sumu’s game.

I think Johnson’s activity, and cardio will be too much on the feet for Sumu, and this price feels accurate. Johnson ML is a solid parlay piece.

Kyler Phillips -380 vs Rob Font +300

I love betting against Rob Font, but I don’t get this -380 number for Phillips. Font’s last 4 losses have been to Figueiredo, Sandhagen, Chito Vera, and Jose Aldo.

All guys who have been title contenders. Font has obvious holes in his game, like terrible take down defense, and not being able to deal with leg kicks, but he can strike, he has good hand speed, and those 4 losses have been decision losses so he doesn’t get submitted or knocked out.

Phillips will stand and strike with Font, and he’ll throw plenty of volume and land a good amount of shots, but do I feel great that he’s going to easily win? No way.

I think this fight goes the distance, and I could see a close decision going either way so I can’t do anything with -380, even in parlays. Fight to go the distance is the play.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Anthony Hernandez -148 vs Michel Pereira +124

Live betting is the way to play this one. Pereira will need to get his striking going early on Hernandez, and he can do that as he has great power, and Hernandez has a tendancy to start fights off slow so I will expect Pereira to be much better in round 1 on the feet.

Once Hernandez gets settled in, he’ll get his wrestling and grappling going, and the pace he’ll push will get Pereira tired for sure.

If Pereira wins, it will be by KO early, but if Hernandez wins it will be by submission late or by decision. Just wait to see how the fight starts, and hope that Hernandez loses round 1 and get him at a plus money number. If he survives early, he’ll wear out Pereira and win by finish in rounds 2 or 3 or by a 29-28 decision.

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