UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs Jandiroba Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds July 20

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night and picks for July 20th with the main event headlined by Amanda Lemos vs Birna Jandiroba in a women’s strawweight fight. The main card starts up at 8:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.

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Amanda Lemos vs Birna Jandiroba: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, July 20	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Amanda Lemos +120 vs Birna Jandiroba -140
Rounds:	2.5 Rounds (Over -165 / Under +130)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 8:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN

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UFC Fight Night Predictions

Muhammed Usman -155 vs Thomas Petersen +130

I don’t know what we did to deserve this fight, but it’s actually pretty bettable if you’re willing to play the over, and watch two big slow guys throw low volume, and hug for 15 minutes.

Petersen came off of Contender Series and lost to Jamal Pogues in his UFC debut, which is a horrible look. He looked out of shape, and he didn’t have much power on his strikes, and he got tired and beat up on the face.

Usman isn’t any more exciting, as he’s low volume on the feet, and he looks to take guys down and lay on them til the ref yells at him to keep working. Take this fight to go the distance as the best way to bet it as neither of these guys are finishers.

Lucie Pudilova -125 vs Luana Carolina +105

I’m not high on either of these fighter, but the edge goes to Pudilova as I think she’s better on the feet, and her biggest weakness is her takedown defense and ground game, but I don’t think Carolina can exploit it.

Pudilova got dominated in the first two rounds on the ground against Ailin Perez, but she had the better cardio in round three and won the last round against Perez so I don’t see her getting tired, and that’s a big deal.

Carolina has won two in a row, but they’ve been lackluster performances. I don’t think she has much power, and I don’t think she’ll have the power/cardio advantage the later the fight goes.

I think Pudilova is the right side, and I think the fight goes the distance so Pudilova by decision might be a night play.

Loik Radzhabov -142 vs Trey Ogden +120

This will probably come down to the length and striking at range for Ogden vs the clinch, wrestling and ground game of Radzhabov, and I give the edge to Radzhabov.

I love his aggression and power, and I think he’s going to be the type of opponent that Ogden hasn’t faced before.

Ogden will try and use the jab to keep Radzhabov at distance, but Radz has a good gas tank as he showed in his last fight with his round three KO over Al-Selwady.

Ogden found a big hole in Hologaugh’s game in his last fight and that was the takedown defense so Ogden got a few takedowns and laid on Holobaugh the whole fight, but there’s no chance he can do that in this fight.

I just don’t think Ogden’s point fighting style will hold up, and I think Radz will have the more explosive moments which are important for the judges to see. This is a solid price on Radzhabov, I think it’s worth a play.

Miranda Maverick -218 vs Dione Barbosa +180

I think Maverick is the right side here as her physicality in the wrestling and on the ground should be the difference.

When I look at her three UFC losses, she lost a split decision to Maycee Barber that is regarded as one of the worst decisions in UFC history, she lost to Blanchfield by decision, and she lost to Jasudavicius when she got poked in the eye and was seeing double for most of the fight.

Barbosa won her UFC debut, but there are definitely cracks in her ground game as she controlled Kareckaite for round one, but she couldn’t hold her down the rest of the fight, and Kareckaite is a long, lanky kickboxer.

I see Barbosa with an advantage on the feet, but I don’t think she can keep it there. I expect Maverick to get it to the ground, lock in the body triangle and get enough work in to get the decision win.

Cody Gibson -238 vs Brian Kelleher +195

I don’t think Cody Gibson is very good, and he had some bad fight IQ moments against Miles Johns in his last fight, but Brian Kelleher is cooked as a UFC fighter.

This is clearly a loser leaves the UFC fight as Gibson is 0-2, and Kelleher is 0-3 in his last three fights, and Kelleher has been finished in all those fights, and his only recent wins are against guys who aren’t in the UFC anymore.

He’s gotten slower, and his durability and power seem to be long gone, and I don’t know what he does well anymore. Gibson should be a bit better everywhere, but it’s not fun to lay -238 on a fighter who makes as many mistakes as he does. Gibson is the play, but I probably won’t bet on it.

Jeong Yeong Lee -192 vs Hyder Amil +160

Difficult fight to handicap as both guys have unknowns, but I think the value play is Amil at +160, but there’s no chance I’m betting my hard earned money on him.

He has really good striking, and he starts fights really fast, but I don’t think he’s wrestling game is any good. In his last fight he almost finished Garcia early in round one, but Garcia survived and almost submitted Amail late in the first.

Lee is a strong guy, but his striking isn’t great so I think Amil can land on him early. The key will be if Lee can survive, and get it to the ground to slow down Amil, and if he can I think he cruise to a decision win. I won’t bet this fight so it’s an easy pass for me.

Cody Durden -125 vs Bruno Silva +105

Bruno Silva fights have been a lot of fun in the UFC recently as his last three fights have ended in finishes, and it’s been his explosive strking that has looked really impressive so I expect Durden to use his wrestling to try and nullify the striking, but Silva is no slouch on the ground.

We watched Durden be completely outmatched against Ulanbekov so maybe his wrestling and grappling game isn’t as elite as we thought.

I like the striking advantage Silva will have, and if can keep it on the feet, I expect he’ll find the finish. It’s not something I’ll bet, but the value is on Silva here.

Bill Algeo -170 vs Doo Ho Choi +145

Choi is 14-4-1 in his career, unfortunately he’s 0-3-1 in his last four fights as his lack of striking defense has caught up to him, and if he hasn’t fixed it yet, I don’t see how he fixes it now.

He’s a good striker, but he’s wreckless and Algeo should have success with his long jabs. Algeo is no spring chicken as he’s 35, and he’s 5-5 in his last 10 with some of his wins being against bad opponents like Spike Carlyle and Herbert Burns, and he’s coming off a KO loss to Kyle Nelson.

I won’t bet on a side on this fight, but it’s probably worth a play to take this not to go the distance.

Kaynan Kruschewsky -142 vs Kurt Holobaugh +120

Kruschewsky got a rude welcome to the UFC as he got KO’d by Elves Brener, the powerhouse, and while Holobaugh doesn’t have Brener type power, Holobaugh’s last eight wins have come by finish, both on the ground and on the feet.

Holobaugh has effective striking on the feet, and a ground game that has gotten him multiple submission wins, but in his last fight we saw Trey Ogden take him down and lay on top of him en route to a win so that has to be concerning.

That being said, Kaynan hasn’t fought great competition, and getting knocked out so bad in his UFC debut in February has to be a big red flag. Holobaugh at plus money is a pretty good underdog play as his experience and weapons could easily lead him to a win.

Steve Garcia -130 vs Seung Woo Choi +110

I think this is going to be a great scrap as both guys have good striking, but I’m going to go with Garcia who has shown some great finishing power in his career. His last seven wins have come by KO, and I don’t see that kind of power from Choi.

Choi is 4-5 in the UFC with only one KO win, and that was against chinny Julian Erosa. Garcia only needs one clean shot to have a huge moment or put the lights out, and I think he can do that here. Garcia is the pick, and the price is fantastic, but Garcia by finish might be worth a play as well.

Jun Yong Park -180 vs Brad Tavares +150

I’ve been betting on Park for a while as I feel he’s undervalued, and I was horrified when the judges gave Muniz the decision win over him in the last fight.

This is a tough one for me because I like betting on Park, but he’s normally been a steal at the number, but he’s the big favorite here so I hate the number. On the other hand, it’s Brad Tavares who’s only recent win is against Chris Weidman while losing to Du Plessis, Bruno Silva and Gregory Rodrigues.

Tavares showed good takedown defense against Rodrigues, but his durability failed him again as he got knocked out in round three.

Park’s best offense is when he gets his opponent on the ground, but I don’t think it’s going to be easy to get Tavares down, and on the feet, Tavares might have the more power.

In the end though, I can’t bet on Tavares as he doesn’t throw enough volume, and he’s been knocked out in his last two losses. It’s not a confident play, but Park should win.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Amanda Lemos +120 vs Birna Jandiroba -140

This fight comes down to whether Lemos can keep this on the feet and win the striking battle or will Jandiroba get the takedowns and control the fight on the ground.

In Lemos’s last fight we saw her get taken down and controlled in the first round, but then her power on the feet showed up and she beat up Dern for the rest of the fight.

Zhang was able to take Lemos down multiple times en route to her win over Lemos, but Jandiroba isn’t as strong as Zhang.

Lemos is a great underdog play here as it will only take a couple of devastating overhands to stop Jandiroba’s forward pressure, and that will lead to Lemos pouring it on with the punches.

Jandiroba has been a great bet on as a dog, but this is way too much respect against Lemos. Lemos +120 is the play.

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