UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Prates Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds November 9

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night picks and predictions for November 9 with the main event headlined by Neil Magny vs Carlos Prates in a welterweight fight. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV.

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Neil Magny vs Carlos Prates: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, November 9	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Neil Magny +550 vs Carlos Prates -800
Rounds:	4.5 (Over -235 / Under +180)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN+

UFC Fight Night Predictions

Tresean Gore -185 vs Antonio Trocoli +154

Gore has had a couple of fights cancelled, but he still hasn’t fought in 2 years, and he’s still the rightful favorite here. Trocoli won on Contender Series in 2019, but then never fought in the UFC until June of this year where I’m pretty sure the UFC made him fightbecause he was under contract.

He looked awful, not in fight shape, low volume with the strikes, and eventually got exhausted and finished in the 3rd to Bullet.

Gore isn’t great, but he’s going to be able to wrestle Trocoli, and win the battle on the ground if he gets it there.

Gore was able to finish Josh Fremd in his last fight, and I think he’s going to be able to do the same thing here as Trocoli hasn’t shown any desire to be a professional fighter.

Cortavious Romious -175 vs Gaston Bolanos +145

Fight goes the distance, I don’t care who wins. Neither of these guys are great fighters. Bolanos is in his early 30’s and got beat up pretty bad in his last fight against McGhee who’s a decent fighter, but certainly not great.

His strikes are wild and inaccurate, and he can’t clinch or wrestle so his offensive weapons are very limited. Romious is coming off a Contender Series win, but he won by decision, and he’s very raw, but athletic.

Dana White raved about him, but I didn’t see the upside. These guys aren’t great on offense, and with all the overs we’re seeing in the UFC, this one feels like another one to go the distance.

Melissa Mullins -238 vs Klaudia Sygula +195

I honestly had no clue who Sygula is before this, but Mullins’s opponent backed out so they needed a replacement fighter and here she is. She’s from Poland and fought in promotions I’ve never heard of and she’s been beating some pretty bad fighters, but she’s shown decent striking, kicks, and knees in the clinch.

If she keeps the distance, she’s going to land strikes for sure against Mullins who doesn’t have good striking defense.

However, Mullins can clinch and wrestle, and Sygula has not fought anyone who can clinch like Mullins can. Mullins was dominating in the clinch in her last fight against Cornolle, but she got tired in the second, and took a brutal knee to the body that knocked her out.

Mullis didn’t have cardio issues in her first fight against Alekseeva, but it was certainly a problem against Cornolle. This would be a live bet situation.

If Mullins looks slow with bad cardio, Sygula could piece her up on the feet and get the win. No bets pre-fight though.

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Da’Mon Blackshear -285 vs Cody Stamann +230

Fight goes the distance, I don’t care who wins. Cody Stamann has the perfect fighting style for overs. He’s arms aren’t very long so he has to lunge in for punches, and they don’t have much power behind them so he’s not knocking guys out, and he can wrestle and clinch to eat up clock, but he doesn’t have good submissions so he’s not submitting anyone.

He’s a tough guy, never been knocked out, and although he’s been submitted twice, they were to Said Nurmagomedov, and Aljo back in 2018.

Blackshear is a tough one to read as he got knocked out in 18 seconds in his last fight that he took on short notice, and he was dominated by Bautista before that so I think his upside is limited. I see a fight with not a lot of big moments, and one that sees the scorecards.

Charles Radtke -170 vs Matthew Semelsberger +142

Semelsberger has some momentum when he entered the UFC as he started 4-1, but he’s 1-4 since then and he’s getting worse, especially his cardio.

His striking doesn’t seem to have the same pop on it, and he’s losing exchanges on the ground, and in the third round he’s the more tired fighter. Radtke got knocked out in his last fight by Prates, but Prates is knocking everyone out these days.

I kind of like Radtke’s skills as he can strike hard, and he can clinch and wrestle. I think he just wears down Semelsberger, and gets the win, but -170 is a pretty steep price on Radtke.

We really haven’t seen a ton of him in the UFC, and Semelsberger will be fighting for his job in this fight as he’ll be cut if he loses. Lean Radtke to win by decision.

Mansur Abdul-Malik -360 vs Dusko Todorovic +285

This price is pure insanity. My notes from Malik’s Contender Series win are that his cardio was bad, but his opponent was awful and had worse cardio.

He has good power, but defense is not good, and he’s a fade. There are a ton of red flags for Todorovic, with the biggest one being that he had a bad knee injury in his last fight. It was a year and a half ago so he should be good to go, but he has a limited ceiling in the UFC.

He’s beaten bottom feeders, and lost to all the step-ups in competition. If the odds were even on this fight, I would say pass, but at +285, Todorovic is worth a sprinkle.

These Contender Series guys that we have questions about don’t seem to have good debut’s, and don’t be surprised if Malik has a decent first round, and then falls apart in the second and third.

Nicolas Dalby -125 vs Elizeu Zaleski +105

Fight goes the distance, I don’t care who wins. Seven out of the last eight fights for Zaleski have gone the distance, and six in a row for Zaleski have gone the distance.

These guys have similar styles in that their striking is decent, but not really crisp, and these guys like wearing down opponents with grueling pressure, clinching, ground game, and just making life miserable for their opponents.

I see this fight being two tough guys slugging it out, but I don’t see how either of these guys submits or KO’s the other one. Take the over.

Gillian Robertson -285 vs Luana Pinheiro +230

I see two fighters heading in opposite directions. Robertson had lost three out of four before going on a 4-1 run in her last five fights, and you can just see her getting better.

Her striking has improved, she’s always had a good submission game, but her wrestling game has really improved, and she’s become much more of a complete package in the last couple years.

On the other hand, Pinheiro has lost two straight, but it’s how she lost that’s a big concern. She was beating Amanda Ribas before she gassed in the third and got knocked out, and then in her last fight against Angela Hill, she just gave up and ended up getting choked out for Hill’s first ever submission.

Robertson is on the way up, Pinheiro needs to make some massive changes to be competitive in this one, and I don’t see it. Robertson is a great parlay piece.

Reinier de Ridder -298 vs Gerald Meerschaert +240

I just can’t fade Meerschaert at this price. His last two fights were against strikers who aren’t good on the ground, and he submitted both of them in the second round, so why can’t he do it to Ridder?

Ridder has a lot of submission on his resume, but I don’t think he has anything that Meerschaert hasn’t seen and won’t be prepared for.

Ridder’s striking on the feet is ok, but I don’t think he’s knocking out Meerschaert, so we’re back to a grappling and submission fight, and I’m not laying -298 on someone making their UFC debut. This will be a complete pass for me.

Denise Gomes -425 vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz +330

This is recency bias on their last fights, and the price is crazy. Kowalkiewicz got beat up by Lucindo, but Lucindo looks to be a future title holder with her incredible striking and power, but Gomes isn’t on Lucindo’s level.

Gomes won a very close fight in June where she was able to beat a much bigger Eduarda Moura who is all about the wrestling, takedowns and control, and Karolina is all about standing and striking.

Two fights ago, Gomes lost to Angela Hill who likes to stand and strike as well, and I would Hill is a bit similar to Karolina as she likes to point fight as well.

I also don’t think Gomes has the best cardio in the world, and Karolina might be faster on the feet. This is a solid underdog play.

Miles Johns -148 vs Cody Garbrandt +124

Garbrandt’s three wins in his last nine fights are against Assuncao, Trevin Jones, and Brian Kelleheer, and Miles Johns is better than all three of them, and I think he presents some real problems for Cody.

Johns got busted for illegal substances a year ago, but he’s won two fights since then, both by decision, and both where his cardio looked really good. Cody Gibson looked great at the last UFC event, and Johns dominated him with wrestling, and fight IQ.

Then he outworked Silva de Andrade, showed off good striking, and there’s a lot to like about him. Cody’s chin is always a question, and in his last fight, Figueiredo got him on the ground and submitted him fairly easily. Cody has to do a lot in this one to get the win.

He can’t get chin checked, he can’t get taken down and end up on bottom, and he has to push a pace that tires out Johns.

Add to that, he has to get his striking on point so keep Johns away from him, and it’s just a lot to ask for him as he’s in the later stages of his career. This is a solid price on Johns, he’s the pick.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Neil Magney vs Carlos Prates

Not much analysis is needed. Prates’s power is insane, and he’s been flatlining everyone since Contender Series.

His reach is a nightmare, and he has the death touch that can put guys to sleep with one punch. Magny has long been a gatekeeper type for the division, but in his last fight, a young stud killed him in the first round so we have to wonder how much gas he has left in the tank.

The way Magny can have success is to clinch and hold Prates against the fence for as long as possible, and hope to tire him out, but I wonder if the end is near for Magny. He’s 37 years old and has 41 professional fights, and Prates is on a roll.

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