UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Albazi Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds November 2

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night picks and predictions for November 2 with the main event headlined by Brandon Moreno vs Amir Albazi in a flyweight fight. The main card starts up at 8:00pm ET from Rogers Place, Edmonton, Canada.

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Brandon Moreno vs Amir Albazi: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, November 2	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Brandon Moreno -175 vs Amir Albazi +140
Rounds:	4.5 (Over -235 / Under +180)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT
Arena:	Rogers Place, Edmonton, Canada
TV:	ESPN+

UFC Fight Night Predictions

Jack Shore +210 vs Youssef Zalal -258

I was skeptical of Zalal coming back to UFC, but he’s been fantastic in his 2 fights. However, his first opponent (Billy Q) was hurt going into the fight, and his second opponent (Jarno Errens) is terrible on the ground, and that’s where Zalal thrives.

Jack Shore is 17-2, but his 2 losses have come in his last 3 fights, and it feels like when he steps up in competition he’s a bit overmatched.

His last fight got stopped because his shin was cut from all the leg kicks he took from Brito, and he really couldn’t get any offense going.

I’ll ride with Zalal to keep the momentum going in his second UFC stint and get the win here by using his size, clinch and ground game. It’s juicy, but a solid parlay piece.

Jamey Lyn Horth -205 vs Ivana Petrovic +170

I can’t say I’m comfortable laying -205 on Jamey Lyn Horth, but I can’t ever see a situation in the UFC where I put money on Petrovic. She beat Na Liang in her last fight, but Liang has awful cardio, and got submitted in the third round, but early on she was wrestling Petrovic around, and landing strikes on the feet.

Before that, Luana Carolina beat her by decision in a pretty boring fight, and on the other side we have Horth who is 1-1 in the UFC, and she’s low volume on the feet, and she likes to clinch and wrestle as well.

She’s going to be bigger and longer than Petrovic, and I think she should win, but for betting purposes we’re taking this fight to go the distance as a parlay piece. They are pretty even, and I don’t see how either of them finishes the other.

Cody Gibson -190 vs Chad Anheliger +162

Both these guys are coming off wins that probably saved their UFC careers, but I have a feeling that the loser leaves town.

Gibson has lost to Miles Johns and Brad Katona, 2 guys that can push the pace, and Gibson couldn’t keep up. He beat Brian Kelleher in his last fight, but everyone does.

Anheliger had lost 2 in a row before beating Grigoriou in his last fight, and I thought Anheliger would put on a solid performance with his wrestling and pace, and he did just that.

He’s undersized, but he’s got a good motor, and while I think he loses a close one, he won’t give up. This is a theme on this card, but I’ll take the overs on this fight as well.

These guys don’t have KO power, and they’re pretty even in the wrestling so I see a fight that goes to the judges.

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Serhiy Sidey -166 vs Garrett Armfield +140

Armfield blew it in his last fight against Heistand when he had Heistand dead to rights, and he showed terrible fight IQ by engaging on the ground and not letting Heistand up when he was almost knocked out.

Instead of fading him, I’ll come back and pick him to win as an underdog as he had one dumb moment that cost him, but he had won 2 straight fights, and he has the striking and skillset to win this.

Sidey has had an odd road to the UFC as he knocked out Taveras on Contender Series, but Dana White didn’t like that so he demanded a rematch, and Sidey got beat in a split decision.

Sidey isn’t that great, he has power, but I don’t see a lot of weapons in his arsenal, and I certainly don’t trust him in a UFC debut as a favorite. Armfield is a solid underdog play.

Rodrigo Nascimento -125 vs Alexandr Romanov +105

Romanov has had a rough last few years as he’s had a lot of troubles outside of fighting, and he’s 1-3 in his last 4 fights with his win against an old and damaged Blagoy Ivanov.

Romanov’s head hasn’t been in a good spot, and his cardio has always been awful, and if he doesn’t take his opponent down early, and finish him on the ground, he loses.

Nascimento just got knocked out by Lewis in the third round, but early on he had success taking Lewis down in the first 2 rounds before Lewis landed the big shot.

Romanov doesn’t have the cardio to win in the later rounds, and I think Nascimento can avoid getting finished in the first round, and after that he should use his striking to get the win.

It’s a couple of lower level big guys so anything can happen, but fading Romanov is a solid play here.

Charles Jourdain -115 vs Victor Henry -105

Charles Jourdain has been awful recently as he’s 2-4 in his last 6 fights, but it’s worse than that. His wins are over Kron Gracie, who is a terrible MMA fighter, and his other win was against Ramos when Jourdain got sparked, knocked down, and Ramos jumped on top of him right into a guillotine.

It was a nice submission, but he was close to getting finished. He just gets hit too much, and he gets knocked down or knocked out, and it looks bad to the judges.

His striking doesn’t have KO power these days, while he has a decent ground game at times, he can’t hold opponents down for very long.

Victor Henry is a point fighter and although he’s coming off a KO win, it was against a tomato can. He’s going to dance around on the outside, use his jabs and kicks to maintain distance and stay out of harms way. I don’t trust either of these guys so this will be a complete stay away from a betting perspective.

Jasmine Jasudavicius -205 vs Ariane Lipski +170

I give the slight edge to Jasmine in this fight, but not at -205. Lipski is coming off a close loss to Karine Silva where she just lost a couple of close wrestling moments that cost her the fight, but she has good striking, she’s active in the clinch and on the ground, and she’s pulled some upsets in her career, with the win against Melissa Gatto being the most notable.

Jasmine is going to want to use her strength and takedowns to get this on the ground, and if she gets top position, it’s going to be tough for Lipski to get out of there.

Lipski is going to have to stop the takedowns and keep this a striking match, but if she gets dominated on the ground, a submission is a possibility.

I think most would say take this fight to go the distance, but Jasmine subbed Cachoeira 2 fights ago, and Lipski has 6 fights out of her last 9 that haven’t gone the distance. I think Jasmine wins this fight, but this is a steep price so I’ll pass.

Piemann Zahabi -115 v Pedro Munhoz -105

Fight goes the distance, I don’t care who wins. It’s a Pedro Munhoz fight so we know what he’s going to do. Strike from the outside with little power, move around the outside, and eat punches, but be nimble and tough enough to not get finished.

The only fight of his to not go the distance in the last 9 was because of an eye poke against O’Malley, and we might get a good price because Zahabi has fought 13 times and 9 of them have been finishes.

However, his fights against Basharat and Turcios might look a lot like this fight with good volume and activity, but both fighters pretty equal and tough to finish.

His cardio is solid so I don’t worry about him gassing out, but when you look at his finishes, they’re all in the first round so once it gets out of the first he doesn’t seem to have finishing ability.

No opinion on the winner, just look for Munhoz to control the pace, keep it mostly on the feet, and get another fight to go the distance.

Mike Malott -250 vs Trevin Giles +205

This might be my favorite play on the card even though it’s -250. Mike Malott learned a lot from his last fight against Magny where he dominated the fight, but he didn’t manage his cardio, he gassed very late and Magny got the ground and pound win.

Malott had been running through guys in the UFC, but Magny is a cagy veteran with solid cardio and Malott won’t make that mistake again.

His power and physicality will be too much for Giles who just doesn’t offer much upside. His most recent wins are a split decision against Preston Parsons (who isn’t very good), and a decision against Louis Cosce who is getting submitted in Urijah Faber’s leage these days.

He’s low volume with his striking, and Malott is going to be able to close the distance and pummel him inside.

I don’t know if Malott gets the finish because he’ll be careful with his cardio, but he’s going to be able to land the better strikes, have better volume, really damage the leg of Giles with his kicks, and control where this fight takes place. Malott ML is a solid parlay piece.

Marc-Andre Barriault -192 vs Dustin Stoltzfus +160

I would imagine that Soltzfus is going to want to take Barriault down and keep this on the ground, but he hasn’t been that successful at doing that, and Barriault is going to be a really tough guy to wrestle down to the mat.

Stoltzfus couldn’t keep Ferreira on the ground in the first and Ferreira is not a good wrestler by any measure, and after they got up off the mat, Dustin was tired and Ferreira hit him with an elbow that knocked him out.

Stoltzus has 2 wins in the UFC, and they’re against trash can fighters, and he’s lost the other 5 UFC fights with 4 being by finish.

Barriault is just going to wear down Stoltzfus over 3 rounds with his striking, clinch and cardio. He went 5 rounds with Chris Curtis in a close split decision, and he’s coming off a loss to Pyfer with Pyfer hit him with a great glancing blow to the side of Barriault’s head that knocked him out, and the level of competition isn’t close as Barriault has fought much better fighters.

He just needs to not get finished in the first half of the first round and Stoltzfus will slow down, and probably get finished.

Another factor is how brutal the last fight was for Stoltzfus. He had nerve damage, and multiple injuries to his face from the spinning elbow KO, and that fight was in June so I’m surprised he’s fighting so quick, and it comes across as taking a fight to get one last payday in before the year is over. Barriault for sure in this one.

Caio Machado -162 vs Brendson Ribeiro +136 

Loser DEFINITELY gets cut here. Maybe both of them do. These 2 are terrible. They’re both 0-2 in the UFC, they have bad cardio, and even their wins on Contender  Series were strange and probably didn’t warrant UFC contracts, but Dana always says…I need heavyweights.

Except, Machado is dropping down to light heavyweight  for this fight so now we add in a huge weigh cut in this fight.

There’s nothing appealing about this fight or betting on this fight. Wait til you see this fight start, and just bet against the first guy that starts to get really tired. Other than that, we move on.

Jhonata Diniz -180 vs Derrick Lewis +150

I’m not impressed with Diniz, and he’s ripe to be beat, and Lewis at +150 is very enticing. Diniz is purely a striker, and has been given 2 gifts for opponents to start his UFC career.

He got Austen Lane who gets knocked out all the time, and then in his second fight he got Karl Williams, who is a all-world wrestler, but for some reason decided to try and strike the entire fight, basically giving Diniz a free win.

Lewis has won 2 out of 3, and both have been by flash knockouts, which is basically his only path to victory at this point in his career, but he’ll get plenty of chances to tee off on Diniz.

Diniz will try and keep this at range, but Lewis isn’t like anyone he’s fought before. Lewis has decent cardio where he’s live for a KO late in the fight, I’ll take him to get the win as the dog here.

Erin Blanchfield -135 vs Rose Namajunas +114

Fight goes the distance, I don’t care who wins. I’m very interested to see who wins this fight, but from a bettting perspective, this fight is a tough one to call.

Both have lost to Fiorot recently, and I just don’t see who could get the finish. Rose has one finish in her last six fights, and while Blanchfield has submission wins, she’s not submitting Rose with Rose’s solid ground game.

I think this fight is going to be very close with the winner just squeaking out a few big moments, and I think Rose can get the bigger moments.

Add to that, Blanchfield’s nose always seems to get damaged in her fights so if judges are looking at a very close round, and Blanchfield’s nose is bleeding, it cost her a valuable round.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Brandon Moreno -175 vs Amir Albazi +140

On paper, Moreno is the better wrestler, has the longer reach, and has fought by far the better level of competition.

Albazi struggled to beat Kai Kara France a year ago, and before that was fighting unranked guys, and guys no longer with the UFC so this feels like he should be a bigger underdog.

Albazi’s ground game shouldn’t be good enough to beat Moreno, and his striking is decent, but Moreno has been fighting guys like Brandon Royval, Pantoja and Deiveson Figueiredo so Albazi doesn’t bring anything to the table that Moreno hasn’t seen before.

My big red flag for Moreno is that he semi retired after his last fight, and that was in February. He’s lost two fights in a row by split decision, and I wonder if he’s super motivated to be in this fight or if he’s struggling to get hyped for this fight.

When a fighter hints at retiring or leaving the sport, and then returns, I have to wonder if it’s for the love of the sport or just money, and if it’s just money, sometimes that doesn’t go well.

If Moreno brings his best game, he should win. If he’s tentative, and not 100% ready for a battle, I think Albazi can win. I’ll lean Moreno, but I may wait and bet this fight live to see what Moreno looks like.

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