UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs Perez Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds April 27

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for April 27th with Matheus Nicolau and Alex Perez headlining the main event in a flyweight fight. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV.

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Matheus Nicolau vs Alex Perez: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, April 27	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Matheus Nicolau -190 vs Alex Perez +160
Rounds:	4.5 Rounds (Over +115 / Under -145)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN

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UFC Fight Night Predictions

Maheshate -245 vs Gabriel Benitez +200

Fairly low level fight, but it will probably take place on the feet where both guys have bad striking defense so it wouldn’t surprise me if both guys are beat up and bloodied by the end of the fight.

Maheshate is bigger, and probably has more power, but his striking isn’t creative, and he’s a bit slow. Benitez has only beaten bad fighters in the UFC, and he was just beaten up and submitted by Jim Miller, and I really don’t see any upside in him.

Maheshate will have more power, but I’m not laying -245 on him as he’s coming off a bad KO loss and I don’t know how his chin is going to hold up. It’s dog or pass in this fight, but I’ll pass.

Ivana Petrovic -455 vs Na Liang +350

Na Liang is 0-3 in the UFC, and she’s looked bad in all three fights. She doesn’t have power on the feet, and she gets dominated on the ground as well. She’s active, and fast, but her skills just aren’t there.

Petrovic isn’t great either as she lost in her UFC debut against Luanna Carolina, and there was a lot of clinching and ground control in that fight, and while Petrovic came out on the losing end, she’s better than Liang, and I think she’s stronger which gives here the advantage in these exchanges.

Both have questionable striking, but Petrovic has more power than Liang. Liang just puts herself in bad positions, and while the speed could give Petrovic some problems, in the end, Liang will fade the longer the fight goes and Petrovic should win a sloppy fight by decision

James Llontop -140 vs Gabe Green +115

I’ll gladly take the plus money on Gabe Green here. I’ve had a great read on his fights as I’ve cashed on his last 3 fights, and I think we’re getting plus money on him because he’s lost two in a row, but his losses were to Ian Garry and Bryan Battle, two great fighters. Llontop is coming off a nice win on Contender Series, but I wasn’t all that impressed.

He has a good striking game, and solid clinch work for regional scenes, but is it good enough against a UFC Veteran who’s tough and has knockout potential? I don’t think so.

Fading the Contender Series fighters from the fall has been a really good strategy, and I’ll keep doing it here. Green will be able to land strikes against Llontop, and I think Green is going to have stretches of control time against him en route to a victory. Gabe Green is a great underdog play.

Ketlen Souza -325 vs Marnic Mann +260

We didn’t get to see much of Souza in her UFC debut as Karine Silva took her down and got her in a kneebar early in round 1 so I have to go back to her Invicta fights to see her style.

She’s shown some moments of good striking, and she has good top position and ground and pound, and honestly, it won’t take much to beat Marnic Mann. Mann is small at only 5 feet tall, and she’s constantly searching for the takedown, but she’s not that good at it, and on the feet, her striking is really bad.

Take this fight to go the distance for sure as I don’t see how either of these women have the finishing ability over the other, and Souza is the pick, but this is priced pretty accurately so Souza by
decision is a solid play.

Don’Tale Mayes -162 vs Caio Machado +136

This is the kind of fight we get the week after UFC 300. This is a low-level fight with two big guys, and they will both be out of energy in the second round if it makes it that far.

Machado is early finish or nothing as both his losses as a pro were by decision, and in his UFC debut he got grinded out by Mick Parkin as Parkin was able to take him down and keep him there in round 2, and he landed enough strikes in round 3 to get the win.

Mayes looked terrible in his last fight against Nascimento as he was slow and out of shape, and offered no offense, and that fight had less action than Machado-Parkin.

No chance I’m laying -162 on Mayes with as out of shape as he looked, last fight I’ll take a sprinkle on Machado at plus money, and be warned that if this fight gets out of the first round it will be a snoozefest.

Michal Figlak -135 v Austin Hubbard +110

Hubbard’s second run in the UFC got off to a rough start as he was submitted by Kurt Hollobaugh, but I like him to get back on track against Figlak. Figlak got pieced by Fares Ziam, and when he would try and clinch and wrestle Ziam, he didn’t have success which was a terrible look.

Hubbard’s striking should be better, and if there are wrestling and clinch situations, I like Hubbard to have a little advantage. It’s not a big play, but Hubbard at plus money is worth a look.

Victor Henry -520 v Rani Yahya +440

Quick analysis: Rani Yahya is 39, and looked so old and slow in his last fight where he got knocked out early by Montel Jackson.

Henry is faster, and better anywhere, just take Henry in a parlay, and you can even take Henry ITD as I don’t think Yahya has much left in the tank.

Uros Medic -205 v Tim Means +170

Here’s yet another fight with two guys who aren’t really impressive. Medic got dominated in his last fight against Orlbai as Orlbai took him down at will and dominated him on the ground.

Now, Medic was training for a striker and not a grappler, but he still looked awful. Before that, he beat Semelsberger in a wild striking contest, and he’ll need to keep it on the feet against Means who will absolutely win exchanges on the ground.

However, Means is 40 years old and Medic will be faster on the feet. Means got the KO win against Fialho in his last fight, but everyone is finishing Fialho these days. I wouldn’t lay -205 on Medic, but he should win so I’ll pass on this fight.

Jhonata Diniz -245 v Austen Lane +200

Lane is coming off a loss he’s probably embarrassed about as he rushed in too fast against Tafa, and he got knocked out cold. Surely, he won’t make the same mistake against Diniz who has KO power, but I don’t think Diniz is that impressive.

He’s big and powerful but doesn’t move that great, and he doesn’t set up his strikes. Lane should move better on the feet, and at +200 I’ll take a sprinkle on him to beat another Contender Series guy from the fall season who I don’t think is that impressive.

Neither of these guys has been to a decision in an MMA fight so expect a finish, and I’ll take Lane to finish Diniz.

Ariane Lipski -142 v Karine Silva +120

This should be a fun fight as Silva is 3-0 in the UFC with all 3 by first-round submission, and Lipski has won 3 in a row, and she’s been improving with each fight.

Lipski should be better on the feet in striking exchanges, and I think Lipski is way better at defending submissions than Silva’s previous opponents.

I think Lipski extends this fight past the first round where she wears down Silva with the striking, and I can see Silva getting frustrated that she won’t be able to control Lipski like she could with previous opponents. Lipski is a solid play here.

Ryan Spann -175 v Bogdon Guskov +145

If I knew we were getting a motivated and dialed-in Ryan Spann, I would max bet this, but since Spann is so inconsistent I can’t bring myself to bet him. Guskov came from the Russian scene and we easily cashed on Oezdemir beating him as he looked completely outclassed.

He knocked out Zac Pauga in his second fight, and that’s pretty much what he is. A power puncher who doesn’t do anything else good.

If Spann feels like wrestling and taking Guskov down, that will be available all fight long, but my guess is that Spann will stand and strike.

I would take unders in this fight, maybe even under 1.5 rounds as Guskov has power and very little striking defense, and if Spann is in shape and ready to throw down we’ll get violence. Under 1.5 is the play for me.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Matheus Nicolau -190 v Alex Perez +160

Perez has had three fights since 2020, and he lost all of them, but he lost to Figureido, Pantoja, and he just lost a really close one to Mokaev, but that loss doesn’t look great now as it turned out Mokaev was fighting with a staph infection, and was not at 100%.

Perez has dealt with a ton of injuries over the years, and he was very open in his interviews before last fight that he’s here to promote his Acai juice business, and that’s what he does full-time now.

The injuries and inactivity have derailed his career, and he’s just not at a high level right now. NIcolau got knocked out by Brandon Royval in his last fight, but he had won 6 in a row before that.

He’s patient, and he likes to circle on the outside to set up his shots so Perez will be the one engaging, and that should play into Nicolau’s hands. I think he dictates the pace and controls how the fight goes.

Perez will probably be a bit too overzealous and he’ll make some mistakes early that will give Nicolau openings on the feet.

The other big selling point is that Perez is taking this on somewhat short notice, and this is a 5-round fight, and Perez was slowing down towards the end of the 3rd round of the Mokaev fight.

Perez’s best days are behind him, and Nicolau should have the big advantage on the feet, and with cardio so this is a fantastic parlay piece.

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