UFC Fight Night: Perez vs Taira Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds June 15

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for June 15th with Alex Perez and Tatsuro Taira headlining the main event in a flyweight fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.

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Alex Perez vs Tatsuro Taira: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, June 15	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Alex Perez +165 vs Tatsuro Taira -200
Rounds:	2.5 Rounds (Over -145 / Under +115)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN2

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UFC Fight Night Predictions

Melquizael Costa -170 v Shayilan Nuerdanbieke +140

A battle of two guys who are coming off of losses to Steve Garcia, and what’s crazy is that both were probably winning the fight until Garcia knocked them out.

I’m surprised that Costa is this big of a favorite as he’s 1-2 in the UFC with his only win being to Austin Lingo, not impressive.

Nuerdanbieke is 30 years old, but has been in 50 pro MMA fights so he has a lot of wear and tear, but I think his striking is more powerful than Costa’s.

Costa’s striking only looked good against Lingo, but Nuerdanbieke has much better defense and movement. Costa likes to grapple, but I don’t think he’s elite, and Nuerdanbieke should be able to defend.

This fight should be closer than it looks, the value is on the underdog. I probably won’t bet it, but I certainly wouldn’t lay this with Costa.

Josefine Knutsson -230 v Julia Polastri +190

Knutsson has been very good to us as we’ve cashed on her Contender Series fight and her UFC debut. She has a kickboxing background and has great volume with her striking, really good accuracy and cardio as well.

She doesn’t have a ton of power so it’s kind of like death by a thousand papercuts, but it’s effective, and I think it will be here.

Polastri doesn’t have good striking defense, and her strikes are wild which I think Knutsson will be able to defend. Polastri won her Contender Series fight by rear naked choke, but it wasn’t an impressive performance, and I don’t see her overpowering or outstriking Knutsson.

You can play Knutsson to win, but I would just wait and play her to win by decision. She only has one finish in 11 MMA and kickboxing fights.

Jeka Saragih -340 v Westin Wilson +270

The UFC must not like Westin Wilson. They brought him in to get knocked out by power strikers in Joanderson Brito and Jean Silva, and now he faces Jeka Saragih who primarily wins by knockouts.

Saragih doesn’t have a great overall skillset, but his power can’t be ignored, and I’m not sure Wilson has the tools to avoid the knockout for the whole fight.

Wilson took Silva down once in his last fight so maybe he can try and implement a ground game attack, but his cardio and durability don’t look good. Saragih by KO will be the popular play this week, but it’s hard to argue with that play. Unders and Saragih by finish are how to bet this fight.

Gabriella Fernandes -238 v Carli Judice +195

Judice doesn’t have a lot of expeerience, but she put on an amazing performance on Contender Series as her and her opponents landed 200+ strikes each. She showed toughness, cardio, and a skillset you don’t see from someone with only four professional fights.

However, I think this is going to be a tough fight for her, and I think Fernandes gets the win. Fernandes has lost her two UFC fights, but she fought Bleda and Jasudavicious, two wrestlers who took her down and grinded out wins against her, but Judice won’t do that.

Fernandes is strong, and has more power in her strikes, and that will be obvious from the beginning. Fernandes is a confident pick here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she gets the finish.

Garrett Armfield -170 v Brady Hiestand +142

Armfield lost his debut in the UFC, and I wasn’t impressed, but he’s improved a ton, and it’s resulted in him winning his next two fights including a great performance against Brad Katona where he showed really good volume of striking, and cardio, but the concern was that Katona was able control him a few times, but the judges didn’t seem to count it.

Hiestand can wrestle, but he hasn’t shown it recently, but when he he did get Danna on the ground late, he got the ground and pound win so I know he can do it.

Although he knocked out Danna in his last fight, he really got beat up on the feet, and I though he looked slow.

If Armfield fights like he did against Katona, I think he wears down Hiestand on the feet and cruises to a victory, and that’s what my pick will be here, but it’s not super confident because Hiestand has an advantage with the takedowns and control game, I just don’t know if he’ll use it.

Nate Maness -410 v Jimmy Flick +320

Betting against Jimmy Flick when he returned to the UFC was easy money for two fights, but they found a guy he could beat in Malcolm Gordon, and that’s what he did as Gordon did the one thing you can’t do against Flick, and that’s get on the ground into a submission position as that’s all Flick can do.

Flick’s striking is non-existent, and Maness is smart enough to know he needs to stay on the feet, and he should get the victory.

If you’re betting on Jimmy Flick, you bet on him to win by submission or you can just take this fight to not go the distance, but Maness should win this fight, and don’t be surprised if he stuffs the takedowns of Flick, and knocks Flick out on the feet.

Tagir Ulanbekov -230 v Joshua Van +190

Ulanbekov is the rightful favorite here as his skillset is better than Van’s, especially the grappling and ground game. Van is a good striker, but this is a huge step up in competition as he’s fought lower-level UFC guys, and Ulanbekov has elite skills.

Van is going to have to start off strong and piece up Ulanbekov from the start to slow him down from shooting takedowns, but I think that might be too tall of a task.

Van got taken down once against Bunes in his last fight so Ulanbekov will be licking his chops seeing that. Ulanbekov is the play.

Adam Fugitt -115 v Josh Quinlan -105

I’m not a fan of Fugitt, but I’m even less of a fan of Quinlan. Quinlan got busted for a banned substance, and since then he’s knocked out Jason Witt (everyone does that), and then he’s lost to Trey Waters and Danny Barlow.

He doesn’t seem to have the power or durability, and I really do have to wonder if he’s just not a great fighter if he’s off the juice. Fugitt is tough and rugged, and his fighting style isn’t pretty, but he can push forward, clinch, and frustrate his opponent, and he has power as his last seven wins have been by finish.

Cardio is an issue for Fugitt if it gets to the third, but I just don’t think Quinlan is powerful enough to damage Fugitt, and Quinlan isn’t great in the wrestling or grappling game. It’s certainly a great price, I think Fugitt is worth a play.

Asu Almabaev -410 v Jose Johnson +320

Even though I think Almabaev wins, this price is really steep, and I won’t play it. Almabaev has looked good in his two UFC fights winning both of them, and his takedowns and pressure have looked really good, and will probably look good against Johnson as well.

However, Johnson is tall and lanky, and I wonder if it’s going to give Almabaev trouble on his shoots. Johnson has long legs and good front kicks, and if he get those working early he can frustrate Almabaev.

Almabaev is quicker and more active on the feet so he should get the win here, but I’m not willing to lay this price on him. This is a stay away.

Douglans Silva de Andrade -115 v Miles Johns -105

The odds tell us that this fight should be close, and I agree completely. Both guys are tough, durable, and have shown good cardio recently, although Miles Johns has had cardio issues in the past.

He showed great cardio against Argueta two fights ago, but he got popped for a banned substance so that made sense, and in his next fight agaisnt Gibson, he seemed to manage it ok.

Andrade is coming off a win against Cody Stamann that I’m not sure he won, and I think every round is going to be close as both guys can wrestle, they throw strikes, but not a lot of volume, and not big time power so I think the best way to bet this fight is to take the over.

Once it gets out of the first round, both guys will just be trying to manage their energy, and I don’t see them having KO power. Fight to go the distance is how I would play this one.

Timmy Cuamba -180 v Lucas Almeida +150

Almeida is 14-3 as a professional, but his three losses are in the UFC and on Contender Series so it looks obvious to me that he’s reached his ceiling. He’s been submitted and knocked out in his two UFC fights, but it’s the KO that should be the concern because Cuamba is a striker.

I liked Cuamba going into his Contender Series fight, and although he lost by split decision, he looked really good, and he lost to Bolaji Oki who is highly rated prospect.

Cuamba has good striking, volume and cardio, and as much as I want to bet on him, the fighters coming off of Contender Series have performed poorly.

So, I have a guy in Almeida I want to fade, but I have a Contender Series guy making his debut so I’ll exercise caution and stay away from betting this fight.

Ikram Aliskerov -900 v Antonio Trocoli +600

This should be a massacre as Trocoli is inactive, and is stepping in short notice to get destroyed here. The price is appropriate, but it’s not bettable.

Just wait til props come out and play Aliskerov to win inside the distance. No other analysis is needed.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Alex Perez +165 vs Tatsuro Taira -200

The books aren’t overreacting the Perez’s last win, and that’s smart on their part as I have to give him credit for knocking out Nicolau, but something was off with Nicolau as he looked asleep from the beginning of the fight.

Perez will have to show the same aggressiveness with his striking against Taira because we know how dangerous Taira can be on the ground, and Perez struggles in that area.

Taira got his first KO win of his career in his last fight against Carlos Hernandez, but if tries to stand and strike with Perez he’ll be playing with fire.

I’ll assume that Taira won’t mess around, and he’ll get this to the ground sooner rather than later, but I’m not willing to lay this price on it.

I think taking this fight to not go the distance is the best way to play it as Perez has KO power on the feet, but Taira can submit him on the ground. Either way, I think the winner gets the finish.

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