UFC Fight Night Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds July 22

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for July 22 with Tom Aspinall vs Marcin Tybura headlining the event. The main card starts up at 3:00pm ET from O2 Arena in London, England.

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Tom Aspinall vs Marcin Tybura Odds: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, July 22	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Tom Aspinall -450 v Marcin Tybura +340
Rounds:	1.5 Rounds (Over +140 / Under -175)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 3:00pm ET / 12:00pm PT
Arena:	O2 Arena in London, England
TV:	ESPN+

UFC Fight Night Expert Predictions

Jafel Filho -120 v Daniel Barez +100

The odds reflect what I think will be a great fight, and it’s tough to take a lot away from Filho’s last fight against Mokaev because Mokaev works the takedowns and wrestling so much, but Filho held his own and did some damage to Mokaev’s knee on the ground.

Filho’s last 10 wins have come by finish as he has really good hand speed, decent kicks and really good power behind the punches. He’s good on the ground, but I worry about his striking defense as he leaves himself open at times.

Barez fights in a similar fashion with lots of finishes on his record, knockout power behind his strikes, and his last loss was on Contender Series to Carlos Hernandez, and that loss does not look bad at all as Hernandez has won two UFC fights since then and dropping one to Nacimento.

That fight could’ve gone either way as it was a split decision, but I think Barez’s weakness might be the wrestling and ground game of Filho, and that’s why I lean Filho in this one. If you’re a live bettor and you see Filho having early success on wrestling or takedowns, take Filho.

Bruna Brasil -130 v Shauna Bannon +110

The only way I can play anything in this fight is to take overs. For UFC standards, it’s fairly low level. Bannon is making her UFC debut and is undefeated, but I wouldn’t write home against her opponents, and she doesn’t finish as her last three fights have gone to decision.

She can take her opponents down and work ground and point, but I don’t know if she can do it at the UFC level.

Brasil had a nice KO on Contender Series, but got a brutal matchup in her UFC debut against Denise Gomes who has shown great striking and power in her last two fights.

Bannon has the better ground game so I’ll lean to Bannon for the win, but I’ll be putting my money on an over of some kind.

Chris Duncan -115 v Yanal Ashmouz -105

Duncan is a tough fighter who loves his kicks to the legs and body to keep the distance and set opponents up for shoots and takedowns.

He recently won a close decision against Omar Morales in a fight that was low volume with strikes, but give credit to Duncan as he had the cardio, offense and defense to get the best of Morales.

He’ll fight Yanal Ashmouz who is coming off a bizarre win against Sam Patterson who is much much taller than him, but Yanal caught a kick, landed a punch and then landed another square on the jaw as Patterson was falling down to knock him out.

Credit him for the win, but it was early in the fight so we didn’t get a lot of film to watch on him. He’s undefeated, but without seeing much film from him at the UFC level, I don’t know if the KO was lucky or a sign of things to come from him.

For that reason, I can’t make any plays on this fight as I think Yanal will have the speed edge, but Duncan will have the grappling edge and I don’t see any edge in betting this fight.

Ketlen Vieira -200 v Pannie Kianzad +160

I don’t really have anything amazing to say about this fight, other than take the over. Either one could win this fight, but slight lean to Vieira as I think she has the stronger strikes which should do more damage, but no chance I’m paying -200.

Kianzad has had eight straight fights go to decision, and 19 of her 22 fights have gone the distance as well. Vieira has had 16 fights with 13 of them going the distance including her last five. Neither of these women have a win by finish in five years, and I don’t see one happening here.

Makhmud Muradov -300 v Bryan Barberena +240

Muradov is coming off of two losses to Caio Borralho and Gerald Meerschaert, two fighters who make their money with takedowns, ground games, and submissions.

Muradov doesn’t have to worry about that with Barberena who just stands and strikes, and he’s coming off of two losses to guys who exploited Barberena’s weakness on the ground as dos Anjos and Gunnar Nelson submitted Barberena.

Muradov can be chaotic on the feet leaving himself open for counter strikes, and that’s the worry I have with him. Muradov should have a game plan focused on attacking the non-existent ground game of Barberena, but he just doesn’t seem to want to go that route, and it’s why I can’t take him at this price, even in parlays.

As much as I like fading Barberena, Muradov could absolutely get cracked on the feet and at this price it’s much to risky.

Jamal Pogues -140 v Mick Parkin

Parkin surprised everyone by winning on Contender Series, but his opponent gasses within two minutes of the fight starting, and in that two minutes Parkin was getting beat.

Pogues isn’t the most exciting fighter in the world, but he’s really tough and has a good gas tank. He won his UFC debut against Josh Parisian in a fairly boring fight, but I’ve seen plenty of fighters making their UFC debut get too excited and gas out early so I thought his game plan was solid and played it smart.

Parkin has fought six pro fights, and he’s won them all, but the combined record of his opponents is 23-46 and he’s only been out of the first round twice, and his last fight that went to round two he was gassing quick, but luckily for him his opponent sucked. Parkin will need to finish this on the ground, but I don’t think he can get it there without tiring himself out.

He’ll have to get it on the ground early and finish early, otherwise Pogues will have more cardio and will win on the feet which is what I see happening. It’s a fair price on Pogues, I’ll be betting this one.

Joel Alvarez -145 v Marc Diakese +120

Diakese is Top 3 in lack of fight IQ in the UFC so I won’t be betting on him…ever. He had lost two fights in a row, and then won two in a row by implementing a takedown game, and then in his last fight against Michael Johnson he abandoned it completely and he also decided to add taunting and goofing around during the fight to his game plan which resulted in a loss.

Alvarez was on a 14-1 run with his one loss being to Damir Ismagulov, and he capped off the winning streak with a violent finish of Thiago Moises, but next fight he got dominated and finished by Arman Tsarukyan where he was beaten to a bloody pulp on the ground. So what version of of Joel Alvarez will we get?

I think it will be closer to the one we saw against Thiago Moises. Diakese is nowhere near the caliber of opponent of Tsarukyan or Ismagulov (Alvarez’s losses), and even if Diakese gets a takedown, he really doesn’t do much with it as his offense on top is not great.

On the feet, I think Alvarez is more sharp, and powerful, and his last 12 wins have all come by finish so if you like him to win take him ITD.

Diakese has low upside with his offense as his last win by finish was in 2017 and his fight IQ is brutally bad so I’ll side with Alvarez to get the win by finish.

Daniel Marcos -120 v Davey Grant +100

Marcos is an exciting, explosive fighter who had a long layoff during COVID, but came back with impressive win on Contender Series and in his UFC debut. He has vicious leg kicks, incredible knees and every strike is thrown with 100% effort.

He damaged his opponent early and often in his UFC debut, but he showed a few signs of getting tired, and was sloppy at times leaving himself open for counters. Grant is a cagey UFC vet who has won two in a row, he’s well rounded and he doesn’t have hardly any weaknesses, but he also has reached his ceiling I believe.

He has decent strikes, and he can grapple and submit as evident by his insane triangle win against Assuncao.

This fight is going to come down to the power of Marcos vs the well rounded game of Grant, and the odds tell you how close this fight is. I think it could be a good fight to start round 2, but as for the winner, it’s too close to call for me.

Lerone Murphy -155 v Josh Culibao +130

The value is in the dog here as I think this fight is really close so I would play Culibao sooner rather than later as I think the line moves closer to a pick em.

Murphy is undefeated in his last four fights, but he’s only had one fight since 2021, and that was a razor close split decision win against Gabriel Santos where Edwards looked pretty tired in the third round.

I feel like Murphy’s level of competition has actually gotten worse as he beat Amirkhani who I’m not high on, and he beat Gabriel Santos who is 0-2 in the UFC.

Before that he had fought and beat Douglas Silva de Andrade and Ricardo Ramos and I thought he looked better a few fights ago.

He’s well rounded, good striking, good takedowns if his opponent leaves himself open, but Culibao’s only loss is to Jalin Turner, and his last fight against Melsik I thought he was losing before he grabbed an insane rear naked choke on a strange exchange, but he’s dangerous like that.

I like his rangy strikes that I think will keep the distance between him and Murphy, and at plus money I like the price. I don’t think I’ll get to the window on this bet, but I like the fight to start round two.

I think they’re even on the feet and I can see round one being a bit of a feeling out process. Three out of four UFC fights for Murphy have started round two, and all four of Culibao’s UFC fights have started round two.

Jai Herbert -115 v Fares Ziam -105

Herbert has only lost four fights in his pro career, all by finish but he’s also only been to decision three times in 16 pro fights, but two of them have been his last two fights so is his level of competition up or is he losing his finishing power?

Herbert has long arms and legs that helps him in the striking department, and he’s coming off a bad draw where the referee took a point due to a groin strike that wasn’t a groin strike.

He had great grappling and takedowns, and without the point taken away it was a clear Herbert win. Ziam is coming off a much needed win against Michael Figlak, and he looked a lot better than in previous fights.

He’s a lot like Jai Herbert with long arms and legs, decent on the feet and mixes in the occasional takedown, but I just think Herbert is better everywhere. If Herbert wins his last fight without the point deduction, I think this line is closer to -140.

Ziam looked better in his last fight, but the step up from Figlak to Herbert is big, and I think it’ll be too much. I like Herbert to win here with a balanced attack of striking and a takedown every once in a while.

Andre Muniz -200 v Paul Craig +160

I think the Paul Craig experiment is over. He can’t strike, and he’s lost his last two fights when opponents refused to go the ground with him.

He’s fighting Andre Muniz, another grappler and submission fighter, who is coming off a submission loss to Branden Allen, but Muniz showed really good striking in that fight.

He used kicks and punches to do some decent damage to Allen, but in the third round Muniz got a bit tired and sloppy and Allen caught a kick, got it to the ground and got the rear naked choke late in the third.

Paul Craig isn’t going to compete on the feet like Allen did against Muniz, and Muniz isn’t going to put himself in position to get into a triangle or arm bar from Craig.

Muniz will probably do what Johnny Walker and Oezdemir the last two fights and that’s stay away from the Paul Craig danger zone at all costs, and piece him up in the striking department. Muniz is the pick for me easily.

Molly McCann -350 v Julija Stoliarenko +275

I’m not high on either of these fighters, but this might be the last fight in the UFC for Stoli. She’s 1-4 in her UFC fights, and she’s submission or bust, and she’s been bust more often than not.

She’ll want this fight to go on the ground, and McCann will absolutely not want to get on the ground as she’s good with striking and not good on the ground.

All Molly has to do is avoid getting down on the mat and she should win, probably by KO. I like McCann and I like the fight to not go the distance as the last three fights for McCann have been finished, and three out of the last for for Julija haven’t gone the distance.

UFC Fight Night Main Event Prediction: Tom Aspinall -450 v Marcin Tybura +340

Aspinall makes his return to the octagon after the meniscus injury, and if he’s 100% healthy he should have Tybura covered everywhere, but I’m in no hurry to bet Aspinall.

He’s a great striker and he can take it to the ground if he wants, but the concern is can Aspinall hold up for three rounds. I think the over 1.5 rounds could be a sneaky play here as Aspinall might play it a bit cautious to shake off the ring rust, and the last three fights for Tybura have gone the distance.

Tybura has good cardio and a pretty well rounded game and he’s a surprising 7-1 in his last eight UFC fights so he’s no push over.

I think Aspinall is better, but don’t be surprised if this fight is close if it gets into round three as the durability of Tybura isn’t in question, but the volume is and how much damage can he do to the more athletic Aspinall. I like overs in this fight, and I won’t be playing Aspinall as the price is too much.


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