UFC Fight Night Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds June 3

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for May 20 with Kai Kara-France vs Amir Albazi headlining the event. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.

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Kai Kara-France vs Amir Albazi Odds: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, June 3	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Kai Kara-France -110 vs Amir Albazi -110
Rounds:	3.5 Rounds (Over -160 / Under +135)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 9:00pm ET / 6:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN

UFC Fight Night Betting Analysis

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UFC Fight Night Expert Predictions

Philipe Lins +115 v Maxim Grishin -135

I like Grishin to win a close fight here as I think he’ll have a bit more juice left in the tank in the third round. Lins can get pretty gassed, especially if he goes for take downs.

He’s shown he can get takedowns, but just can’t do much with them as in his fight against Marcin Prachnio, Prachnio was able to get up pretty easily.

On the feet it should be close with Lins having a bit more power, but I think Grishin can have success against the cage in the clinch, and his leg kicks can be effective if he commits to them.

I like this fight to go the distance as I think both guys won’t have the energy to finish the other after the first round, and I lean Grishin to pull out the win. If your book offers spreads, I do like Lins +3.5.

Da’Mon Blackshea +125 v Luan Lacerda -145

I’ll take the over 2.5 rounds in this one as I think it’s a very even fight. These guys have shown they can finish fights outside of the UFC, but Blackshear has gone to decision in both of his UFC fights, and Lacerda went to decision in his only UFC fight against Cody Stamann.

I think both guys defense is better than their offense, and I don’t see a KO or submission path to victory for either guy. Both have good cardio, solid striking, good movement on the feet, but limited offensive upside. No opinion on the outcome of the fight, but I do expect it to hit the scorecards.

Elise Reed -130 v Jinh Yu Frey +110

Frey is going to have to get this to the ground or Elise Reed will win on the feet. Reed isn’t a great fighter, but she will throw strikes and they’re pretty solid strikes.

I could do without the dancing and taunting she tried in her last fight against Lookboonmee before she got submitted, but Frey’s striking decent is really bad and Reed should be able to exploit it.

If Frey gets this to the ground, she can have success as Reed is not good on the mat, but Frey has been hesitant in the past, and I think we see more of the same. This isn’t going to be an amazing technical fight, but I like Reed to get it done here on the feet.

Daniel Santos -210 v Johnny Munoz +180

Before this fight was delayed a few weeks ago, Santos was around -150 and myself and a lot of other people liked Santos. Now that the books know this, they opened the fight at -200, but the handicap of this fight remains the same.

Santos has the more creative and aggressive striking, Munoz has a good jab, but I believe Santos has the edge just about everywhere else. Munoz fights pretty cautious, which is the opposite of Santos and I think Santos’s pressure and cardio will overwhelm.

Munoz won his last fight against Sholinian by counter striking and keeping him at distance, but Santos will eat a punch to get in close to do damage, and I believe it will be too much for Munoz.

Andrei Arlovski +105 v Don’Tale Mayes -125

I will take this fight to start round two as a parlay piece as neither of these guys seems like they can finish fights these days.

Both guys will try and work the clinch against the cage, mostly as a means to not use up a lot of energy, and rest.

I won’t bet anything on this fight as I foresee three fairly boring rounds with not a lot of action and a tough decision for the judges.

On paper, Mayes should be fresher in the third, but Arlovski just seems to know how to squeak out close decision wins against guys with a similar skill set than him. Just take the over and don’t bet ML’s on this fight.

Jamie Mullarkey -410 v Muhammadjon Naimov +330

Not a ton of footage to watch on Naimov, but from what I’ve seen I’m not totally sold on him. Obviously, it’s a short notice situation for him, but I think he takes the loss here.

His striking is ok, but fairly low volume, and he leaves himself open quite a bit on the feet and that’s against lower level fighters.

Mullarkey has a nice winning streak as he’s won four out of five with the loss being the the beast Jalin Turner, and although they aren’t against great competition, they are against UFC fighters and with Mullarkey being taller and having a reach advantage I believe we’ll see Mullarkey piece him up pretty good on the feet en route to victory.

Abubakar Nurmagomedov -105 v Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos -115

This is going to be striker vs grappler, and the over is the only way I think you can bet this fight. Dos Santos has good striking, and a pretty good sprawl to stuff takedowns, but I think Abubakar will work hard to land the take down and stay away from the striking on the feet.

Dos Santos really beat up Saint Denis, but I believe he’ll be cautious on the feet as he knows if it gets on the ground, it’s advantage Nurmagomedov.

With that, I see a fight that starts off slow with both fighters trying to stay away from the others offensive weapons. To start round two is a good parlay piece in this one.

Karine Silva -225 v Ketlen Souza +190

Souza is coming off an amazing fight in January where she went five rounds in Invicta, and we know she’s tough as hell, and has plenty of cardio, but we also know that Karine Silva has finished five fights in row, four by submission, and she’ll be bigger and more of threat to finish the fight.

Souza can strike, but I believe Silva is a bit more polished on the feet, and when Souza tries to push forward to get the fight against the fence, Silva will be more than happy to oblige to work the fight at close range or on the ground to work her submissions.

The concern is that we really haven’t seen Silva’s cardio tested in a while, and for that reason I’m staying away from the fight. Silva could tire, and Souza won’t making this a close fight if it gets to the judges. No bet in this fight for me.

Tim Elliott -180 v Victor Altamirano +155

Tim Elliott has gone through some craziness outside of the octagon, but he seems to be in a good place now after hearing a recent interview with him, and I believe his new gym will have him ready to beat Altamirano.

Altamirano won his UFC debut against Vinicius Salvador in an extremely sloppy fight with little discipline from either fighter. Elliott will easily take advantage of Altamirano if he starts off sloppy, and Altamirano was able to win his last fight by stealing a couple rounds with takedowns.

Elliott will have the wrestling and takedown advantage here, and since both guys are tough and have good cardio, I think this could see the scorecards with Elliott winning here by taking advantage of immature mistakes that Altamirano makes on the feet and on the ground.

Jim Miller +155 v Jared Gordon -180

I’m pretty surprised to see Jared Gordon fighting so soon after the big clash of heads against Bobby Green in April, and I wonder if some strong striking from Jim Miler early on might rattle Gordon.

Gordon has one win in his last four fights, and that was to Leonardo Santos who isn’t great. Miller will certainly push the pressure early on with his striking, and I expect him to have success on the feet.

Gordon will probably try and clinch and wrestle and test Miller’s gas tank into the later rounds, but Miller might have the defense to thwart that attack.

Jared Gordon’s style of point fighting doesn’t work well the way judging is going as he doesn’t do much damage to fighters. I like the underdog in his one.

Kai Kara France -110 v Amir Albazi -110

The glibbest question mark in this fight is clearly the competition level of Albazi’s opponent to this point as he’s fought a who’s who of low level UFC fighters while Kara France has fought big time names and has shown real upside in his win against Askarov.

He did have some good moments against Moreno, but the fact is he got knocked out by Moreno, submitted by Royval, and he knocked out Cody Garbrandt (not impressive), and he knocked out Rogerio Bontorin who hasn’t won in his last five fights.

While we pick apart the opponents of Albazi, I think we’re giving a bit of a free pass to Kara France. I think France’s offense sin’t that impressive on the feet, and I expect Albazi to pressure France and force him into a dog fight in close quarters, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Albazi try takedowns and work the ground game.

The price tells me that the books don’t have a lot of respect for France’s fight history, and if Albazi can avoid the the big explosive right hand shots from France, I think he grinds out a win.


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