UFC Fight Night Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds May 13

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for May 13 with Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Jailton Almeida headlining the event. The main card starts up at 3pm ET from the Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC.

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Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Jailton Almeida Odds: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, May 13	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Jairzinho Rozenstruik +400 vs Jailton Almeida -550
Rounds:	1.5 Rounds (Over +160 / Under -195)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 3:00pm ET / 12:00pm PT
Arena:	Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
TV:	ABC & ESPN+

UFC Fight Night Betting Analysis

Another winning week for us as we went 1-0 on Wagertalk official plays bringing our record to 25-13 in 2023 for +27 units, and we have a 5% Best Bet up that we’re very excited for as we’ve been waiting for a couple weeks to fire on this one.

You can grab the play here: http://wt.buzz/al

Finish Of The Week: Carlos Ulberg will finish Ihor Potieria

I’m really high on Ulberg, and I love this matchup for him. He lost his UFC debut against Kennedy Nzechukwu when he had big time cardio issues and he gassed himself getting too over zealous, but he has looked much more patient since then and is getting so much better with each fight.

His next fight after Kennedy, he focused on his cardio and went the distance against Cherant in a unanimous win, and the next two fights he showed his progression with striking as he knocked out Nchukwi in the first round, and then put on an impressive first round against Nebumereanu where he landed hard leg kicks and got the KO.

What I loved about that fight was that Negumereanu wanted to grapple and Ulberg stayed away and used his stance control beautifully to control the fight from the beginning setting up his jab and finishing shots.

Potieria got knocked out by Negumereanu two fights ago as Potieria got taken down, and got exhausted until Negumereanu knocked him out in round 2.

His next fight he got a complete layup as he fought Shogun Rua in Rua’s retirement fight, which was a joke. Rua was way too old, and has lost three straight and Potieria got the finish in round 1.

I don’t like the skill set of Potieria compared to Ulberg, I think Ulberg has a big advantage in striking, and especially with the leg kicks he demonstrated in the last fight.

Ulberg has an incredible group of fighters he trains with, including Adesanya, and his power and newly found patience should let him control the fight and set up the knockout over Potieria who just isn’t as polished as Ulberg and has too many holes in his game. I like Ulberg to roll here.

UFC Fight Night Expert Predictions

Jailton Almeida -550 v Jairzinho Rozenstruik

The only thing I like in this fight is for it to not go the distance. Rozenstruik has been to decision three times in 17 fights, and Almeida has seen the third round once in 20 fights.

I wouldn’t put Almeida in your parlays as his level of competition has been really bad (Shamil Bdurakhimov, Anton Turkalj, and Parker Porter, Danilo Marques) in the UFC, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Rozenstruik’s striking gets Almeida to back off at the start of the fight.

If Rozenstruik doesn’t damage him early then Almeida will eventually get the fight to the ground where a finish is imminent. I won’t be playing a side, I’ll just look to use NOT TO GO THE DISTANCE as a parlay piece.

Anthony Smith -105 v Johnny Walker -115

Here’s another fight that shouldn’t go the distance as Johnny Walker has three decisions in 27 fights including three first round finishes in a row. Anthony Smith has three fights in a row that finished early so the trend is our friend in this one.

I honestly don’t know what to expect from Anthony Smith in this fight as the last time we saw him he broke his ankle against Ankalaev, but I would think he would want to get Walker down on the mat to hunt submissions like he did against Spann and Clark, but the 34 year old has a lot of wear and tear on his body and I don’t trust him.

Walker has two straight wins, but his chin hasn’t been tested in either of those fights and Smith will surely want to throw some jabs to see how Walker reacts. I don’t want to have any of my money on either of these guys.

Ian Garry -250 v Daniel Rodriguez +200

I’m not real high on either one of these guys despite their records. Garry is 11-0 and while he is getting better, I just see holes in his game. He uses his length well, but I don’t think his power scares anyone, especially early in the fight.

He hasn’t shown much with grappling, and his opponents haven’t been good to take advantage of his weak striking defense. He’s done what’s expected, but I feel like we just kinda get the bare minimum out of his performances.

Rodriguez is another that is a bit lackluster in my opinion as he got submitted by Magny last fight, and before that he won against Li Jingliang in a fight I’m not sure he won.

I really don’t know what he does great as his striking is decent, but his ground game isn’t very good, and this is a guy that went the distance against Mike Perry I would take this fight to start round 2 or maybe even go the distance as I don’t think either guy can finish each other. If I had to pick a fighter, I would lean Garry by decision, but there’s no chance I’m laying -250.

Mackenzie Dern -185 v Angela Hill +150

Pretty simple fight here. If Angela Hill can avoid the submission and keep it on the feet, she should win by decision.

Dern is going to have to instigate the takedown and that’s been a problem for her, and if she doesn’t get the takedown she can gas herself.

Hill is coming off of two straight wins in a bit of a resurgence for the 38 year old, and I think there’s value in her at +150 as her striking has been good in those two fights, but it all comes down to her takedown defense. I think she can stay out of trouble and squeak out a close win.

Court McGee -175 v Matt Brown

I have no opinion on this fight, I won’t be betting on it and I suggest you do the same

Karl Williams-430 v Chase Sherman +330

Williams took out collegiate wrestler Jimmy Lawson on Contender series on short notice by out wrestling the wrestler, and then won his UFC debut by out wrestling Brzeski for three rounds and I think he does something similar here.

Chase Sherman likes to strike on the feet, and does not like the fight to be on the ground as evident by him getting submitted in the first by Jake Collier and Alexandr Romanov.

His only win in his last six fights was when he knocked out Jared Vanderaa (who isn’t in the UFC anymore), and in his last fight he lost to Waldo Cortes-Acosta who was taking the fight on short notice and only a few weeks after his previous fight.

Williams should waste no time getting this to the ground, and if Williams manages his own gas tank, he should wear out Sherman on the ground and get the win.

I don’t know if Williams has the submission game to finish Sherman, but I think he makes this a very uncomfortable fight for Sherman en route to a win.

Natan Levy -300 v Pete Rodriguez +240

We really don’t know what to make of Pete Rodriguez as his two fights in the UFC were on the opposite sides of the spectrum. He fought part time photographer Mike Jackson and knocked him out, and then got knocked out by elite fighter Jack Maddalena.

This will show us more of what he’s got, but it’s a stay away for me. Rodriguez has fast hands and solid boxing, and Levy is more of a complete MMA fighter with ok striking and decent grappling.

My instinct says that the fighter with the more complete game wins, but Rodriguez could piece him up on the feet and win a stand up battle so I’ll stay away completely.

Ji Yeon Kim -250 v Mandy Bohm +200

Bohm is a bad fighter and Kim has lost four in row so I’ll pass on this one. This fight to start round 2 is a good parlay piece though.

Gabe Green -125 v Bryan Battle

I’ve enjoyed watching Battle progress from TUF to a legit UFC fighter as he was touted as a great athlete who absorbs info and coaches love coaching him because he gets better all the time, and he’s shown now he can wrestle and grapple, and he can knock people out, and he took his first loss to Rinat Fakhretdinov which there’s no shame in as Rinat is an animal.

This is a great fight as Green is tough as hell and loves to stand and strike, and he can absorb shots and give them out, but I give the edge to Battle who I think can win a couple rounds with his takedowns and grappling.

I’m a fan of both guys, and since both are so tough I see this going the distance with Battle winning a very close one.

Jessica-Rose Clark -150 v Tainara Lisboa +125

Clark at -150 is laughable, especially when she’s been submitted in her last two fights and she’s fighting a fighter who loves takedowns.

The competition for Lisboa has been terrible, but I like her skill sets, and one of her losses was to Normal Dumont in her first fight ever, and crazy enough she fought Valentina Shevchenko in 2010 in a Muay Thai match where she went to decision.

Rose-Clark has no take down defense, but she should be better on her feet, and she’ll have to keep it there because Lisboa has good ground game and will keep Clark on the ground if it gets there. I’ll stay away from this fight, but it’s dog or pass.


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