UFC Fight Night Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds May 20

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for May 20 with Mackenzie Dern v Angela Hill headlining the event. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.

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Mackenzie Dern v Angela Hill Odds: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, May 20	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Mackenzie Dern -175 v Angela Hill +150
Rounds:	4.5 Rounds (Over -145 / Under +120)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN+

UFC Fight Night Betting Analysis

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Finish Of The Night: Joaquin Buckley will finish Andre Fialho

Fialho lost his UFC debut by decision, and he followed that up by knocking out Baeza and VanCamp the next two fights, neither of whom are in the UFC anymore.

The next two fights he stepped up in competition, and got knocked out by Jake Matthews and Muslim Salikhov, and I think he suffers the same fate here.

Buckley is coming in off of two losses as well, but he lost a decision to Imavov, and then then got knocked out by Chris Curtis in a fight he was winning until Curtis caught one of his kicks and flatlined him with a counter.

It was a beautiful KO, but Buckley had been outstriking Curtis up until that point. Buckley moves down a weight class for this fight, which is a very smart move as he should keep his power, but he won’t be fighting guys naturally bigger than him.

Fialho likes to swing big, but he leaves himself wide open to get hit, and his cardio is not very good. Buckley should be able to use his leg kicks to soften up Fialho, and the movement and volume of Buckley should wear down Fialho and Joaquin only needs one opening to put Fialho out which Fialho will certainly give him if he gets worn out.

I don’t think this fight goes the distance as it’s kill or be killed in this fight, but I will take Buckley by KO in Round 2.

UFC Fight Night Expert Predictions

Mackenzie Dern -175 v Angela Hill

As overrated as Mackenzie Dern can be, she shouldn’t lose to Angela Hill. Hill has won two fights in a row, one of them over Loopy Godinez who is a wrestler that decided to not wrestle.

The other was over Emily Ducote who fought like she didn’t know there was a fight that day. Hill only stands and strikes, and is 38 years old and is preparing for her next career in UFC studio announcing while Dern is 30 and needs to start ripping off wins in order to get in the discussion for a title shot.

Dern will be searching for a way to get the fight to the ground to try and get the submission, and as shown in her last fight if she can’t get the sub and keep the fight on the ground she gasses and struggles to do much on the feet.

However, that fight was against Yan Xiaonan who is way better than Angela Hill right now. Hill will have to work hard to stop the fight from getting on the ground, but I don’t think she can do it for all three rounds.

Dern is in her prime and desperately needs this win, I expect her to come out sharp and focused and get the submission win.

Takashi Sato -115 v Themba Gorimbo -105

This is a very low level fight, and I probably won’t be betting it. Gorimbo tried to grapple in his UFC debut against AJ Fletcher, and that didn’t work as he couldn’t hold position and eventually got stung with an elbow and he fell into a guillotine.

Sato has lost three in a row, and this fight is most likely make or break for him in the UFC. He doesn’t thrive in one particular area, but he prefers to stand and strike, and does have a KO win over Jason Witt.

I’ll lean slightly with Sato to get the win as Gorimbo looked really bad in his debut, but this isn’t a fight I will be betting any money on.

Natalia Silva -700 v Victoria Leonardo +475

The odds tell you everything you need to know about this fight. Silva is relentless with her striking, and she did a great job last fight against Bleda stopping the takedowns from a much taller fighter, and wearing her out and getting the KO finish.

Leonardo lost her first two UFC fights to Fiorot (no shame in that) and to Gatto before getting the win against a terrible Mandy Bohm. Leonardo is tough, but she won’t have the offense to overcome Silva.

Silva is a nice parlay piece, but that’s about it as I think Silva can get the finish on Leonardo who has been finished twice already, but I’m not ready to invest in that.

Chase Hooper -105 v Nick Fiore -115

Fascinating UFC career for Hooper as he has looked good at times, and then last fight against Steve Garcia he looked like someone who had never been punched before as he got KO’d in the first.

I’m really not sold on the Chase Hooper experience as I think he was brought in to the UFC way too young, and I think he loses here.

Fiore made his UFC debut against Mateusz Rebecki on short notice, and actually held his own in the first round and even did some damage to the face of Rebecki, but Rebecki is an animal and eventually wore down Fiore en route to a decision win.

Fiore did the UFC a big favor by saving a Rebecki fight, and they reward him with a full camp to take on a vulnerable Hooper.

Fiore has good movement on the feet and good striking, and all he has to do is stay away from Hoopers grappling, and he can do that by circling on the feet, and landing a few solid shots early in the fight.

He should be able to do both as Hooper has a terrible striking game and his counter shots will offer no threat to Fiore. I think Fiore rolls, and I think he finishes Hooper.

Ilir Latifi +145 v Rodrigo Nascimento -170

This is probably going to be a boring heavyweight fight that goes the distance as Latifi has won by finish only once since 2018, and Nascimento barely won his last fight against Tanner Boser in a split decision (Latifi also won against Boser by split decision).

These guys will be low volume strikers, there will probably be long periods of time where they push up against the fence, I won’t bet on a winner, but taking this fight to start round 2 as a parlay piece is solid.

Gilbert Urbina +130 v Orion Cosce -160

This is a stay away. Cosce is not very good despite winning his last fight against Blood Diamond, but Diamond is awful.

Urbina lost to Tresean Gore and Bryan Battle on The Ultimate Fighter, and we haven’t seen him since then so I don’t know what his training has been like or what he’s been focussing on. No bets on anything for me in this fight.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz -150 v Vanessa Demopoulos +120

I like both these fighters as they put 100% effort into all their fights, and they’re evenly matched, but I give an ever so slight edge to Kowalkiewicz.

Demopoulos leaves herself open on the feet and she absorbs strikes which Karolina will certainly be able to take advantage of. Vanessa can take opponents down as evident in her most recent win against Oliveira, but I think the defense of KK can thwart that attack.

If Demopoulos doesn’t get the takedown KK should win on the feet, and that’s my prediction in this fight, but I can’t recommend a real bet with real money unless you want to use this fight To Start Round 2 as a parlay piece.

Emily Ducote +115 v Loopy Godinez -135

If you take one thing away from this article, it’s to not bet this fight. I don’t know what the deal is with Loopy, but she’s been terrible the last couple fights as she’s abandoned her wrestling which is her strong suit, and Ducote looked good in her debut only to be a complete no-show in her fight against Angela Hill. Don’t bet anything on this fight, look elsewhere.

Diego Ferreira -155 v Michael Johnson +125

The year 2021 was not good for Ferreira as he lost three in a row, but those losses were to Gamrot, Gillespie and Dariush…no shame in those.

He hasn’t fought since then so maybe the break is much needed. He had won six in row before that, and I think he gets back on the winning track in this one. Michael Johnson isn’t very good at stuffing takedowns and that’s what Ferreira will do here I think.

He got the rear naked choke on Pettis after taking him down, and he got the ground and pound win against Jared Gordon after getting the fight on the ground.

Johnson got a gift in his last fight when Mark Diakiese decided to not try takedowns, which is how he won his previous fights, and let Johnson piece him up on the feet, and before that Johnson lost a close split decision against Mullarkey.

Ferreira should be way more effective on the feet than Diakese and Mullarkey as he will mix up kicks and punches, and I believe he has his takedowns and wrestling in his back pocket that he’ll use when needed.

Both fighters are in their later 30s and fairly evenly matched, but I believe Ferreira takes the decision win by using the ground game.

Hayisaer Maheshate +130 v Viacheslav Borschev -160

Maheshate may not have takedowns in his offense up to this point, but based on how bad Borschev’s takedown defense has been his last two fights, Maheshate might have to give it a shot.

If this fight stays on the feet, it’s pretty close, but I’m going to lean with the underdog here. Maheshate lost his last fight because Rafa Garcia took him down to steal a couple rounds, but Maheshate delivered plenty of punishment on the feet to Garcia.

Without the threat of a takedown, I think Maheshate can deliver some solid strikes on the feet and in a close fight on the feet, the underdog is a solid play.

Maheshate is young and will get better with each fight, and with Borschev’s holes in his game along with his cardio that can disappear in later rounds, I can see Maheshate winning a close decision.

Anthony Hernandez -275 v Edmen Shahbazyan +220

Edmen had all the hype in the world winning his first three UFC fights by first round KO, but once he stepped up in competition the party was over.

He lost to Brunson, Hermansson and Imavov consecutively, and while those are beastly opponents he needed til late round two to beat Dalcha Lungiambula who is 1-5 his last six fights. Shahbazyan hasn’t shown upside in years, and this is a really bad matchup for him.

Edmen is decent on his feet, but he’s going to have to be deadly on his feet early in this fight to keep Fluffy Hernandez away.

Hernandez is relentless in his wresting, and he should work quickly to get Eden’s legs for the takedown, or to get the back and when he does, he’s suffocating for the entire fight.

His cardio is insane, and Shahbazyan doesn’t have the cardio or defense to prevent Hernandez from implementing his game plan. I like Hernandez in dominating fashion here.


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