UFC Fight Night Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds April 29

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for April 29 with Song Yadong vs Ricky Simon headlining the event. The main card starts up at 7pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.

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Song Yadong vs Ricky Simon Betting Odds

Saturday, April 29	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Song Yadong -105 vs Ricky Simon -115
Rounds:	4.5 Rounds (Over +115 / Under -135)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN+

UFC Fight Night Betting Analysis

Pavlovich got the KO in the main event, which I believe now makes the situation on who’s fighting Jon Jones next interesting.

It’s been two years since Stipe fought, and with Sergei now ripping off six straight first round KO’s, I don’t know why the UFC wants to wait til November for a title fight when Jones and Pavlovich are coming off of short fights and should be in fight shape for a July fight.

Last weekend we went 2-1, but dropped our biggest play in frustrating fashion as Francis Marshall decided to wait til Round 3 to try and fight, but good calls on Bellator and Lucindo got us two wins for the weekend.

We don’t have Bellator or PFL this week, but we do have our UFC best bets up for this weekend as well as plays for our other sports, let’s take a look at the UFC card.

Finish Of The Week: Rodolfo Vieira -275 Over Cody Brundage

I think this sets up nicely for a finish for Vieira, and I would lean a submission, but ground and pound is certainly a possibility.

Rodolfo started off his UFC career with a submission win and then blew it against Hernandez in the next fight when he went way too hard too early and gassed himself leading to him getting finished.

He settled down in his next fight and got a submission win against Stoltzfus, and then lost his last fight in a decision to Chris Curtis.

I liked how he looked in that fight though as he attempted 20 takedowns, and he didn’t get any of them because Curtis is a takedown stuffing machine, but he made it the distance and I liked that he lost because I thought he would get a much easier opponent next fight, and he did.

I’m not high at all on Cody Brundage as he has two wins in the UFC, and they aren’t impressive against Dalcha Lungiambula and Tresean Gore.

He got finished in his last fight against Olekseijczuk, and if you can’t make it out of the first round against Olekseijczuk, I don’t like your chances against Rodolfo.

I think Vieira shows off his newly found patience to set up Brundage for a takedown where he will ultimately finish on the ground. I can’t pick which exact method I like so I’ll just take it inside the distance.

UFC Fight Night Expert Predictions

Hailey Cowan -115 v Jamey-Lyn Horth -105

The UFC wants so bad for Cowan to be a star, so bad that they gave her a UFC contract when she won a split decision on Contender Series in a fight I’m not sure she won.

She’s very strong, has decent striking and clinch work, but her Achilles heel is her complete lack of takedown defense and ground game. Horth is 33 and is 5-0, but against weak competition.

She has good length, and can create distance with her long legs, but ultimately I don’t think she has what it takes to finish or dominate Cowan, and that’s what it will take for her to win.

Cowan is no doubt working non-stop on takedown defense and how to get up if she gets taken down, I think Cowan is strong enough and athletic enough to stay out of trouble and she wins by decision.

Stephanie Egger -300 v Irina Alekseeva +240

We get to see the debut of the one they call “The Russian Ronda”, but she only has one armbar submission and there’s a chance that this step up in competition is going to be too much for her.

Egger can be frustrating to bet on, but Alekseeva has not fought anyone even remotely close to Egger’s skills, especially in Judo throws and ground game.

Alekseeva has good skills, but she’s 32 with only 5 professional fights. If Egger is on her A-game I suspect it will be too much for Alekseeva. I think Egger gets the submission once this hits the ground.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima -160 v Waldo Cortes-Acosta +130

Lima has won three out of four fights with his loss coming in a decision to Blagoy Ivanov, and he has a chance to hand Cortes-Acosta his first loss of his career.

Waldo has beaten Jared Vanderaa and Chase Sherman so this will clearly be his best opponent, and the way that these guys fight I think this goes all three rounds so I would take the Over props in this one.

If anyone will finish the other it will be Lima using his experience to get Acosta in an uncomfortable spot to go for a submission, which is possible, but Acosta is very strong and likes to clinch for extended periods of time. This could be a boring fight so take it to go the distance.

Ricky Simon -140 v Song Yarding +115

We correctly predicted Simon to beat Jack Shore as an underdog as he’s really improved his game since losing to Rob Font and Uriah Faber back to back in 2019.

This fight will come down to if Song Yadong can withstand the chain wrestling and power of Simon. In his last fight. Yadong stepped up in competition and got worked over by Sandhagen until the doctor stopped the fight because of a deep cut above the eye.

He showed toughness, and great cardio, but it also showed the 25 year old he wasn’t ready for this level of fight as Sandhagen put on a striking clinic.

Yadong’s previous two wins were by KO, but they were against Marlon Moraes, who gets knocked out by literally everyone right now, and against Julio Arce who is 3-4 in his last seven UFC fights.

Simon is in his prime at 30 years old and if he fights like he did against Shore, he’ll get Yadong down and inflict enough damage to get the win, which is what I think he’ll do.

It should be a great fight, I’ll side with Ricky in the co-main, but it’s not anything I’ll be betting on as there are better spots on the card to cash in on.


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