UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs Namajunas Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds March 23

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for March 23rd with Amanda Ribas and Rose Namajunas headlining the event in a women’s flyweight fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.

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Amanda Ribas vs Rose Namajunas: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, March 23	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Amanda Ribas +205 vs Rose Namajunas -260
Rounds:	4.5 Rounds (Over +115 / Under -145)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN

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UFC Fight Night Predictions

Mick Parkin -148 v Mohammed Usman +124

This is a fairly low level heavy-weight fight between two guys who are pretty low volume, and not very exciting to watch.

Parking had a bunch of finishes before his UFC career, but his two fights in UFC have gone the distance and haven’t been that exciting.

The same can be said for Usaman, but give both guys credit as they have won all of their UFC fights albeit against low-level opponents.

This is a classic dog or pass situation as there’s no value laying -148 with either of these guys, but I do like playing this fight to go the distance.

Neither of these guys are finishers at the UFC level, they’re too low volume, and after the first round their cardio will be too low for a finish anywhere. Take the over and move on.

Andre Lima -175 v Igor Da Silva +145

Two fighters from Contender Series, and fading guys from Contender Series has been a pretty good strategy so this fight is difficult.

These guys are pretty evenly matched so I think Da Silva at +145 is a pretty good beet. Lima is very crisp on the feet, and his movement is really good, but I didn’t see any killer instinct on Contender Series, and Da Silva walked his opponent down all fight and got the round two finish.

I think when this fight gets into the clinch, or on the ground that Da Silva might be able to do more damage so I think he’s worth a sprinkle. I’ll make Da Silva my pick for this fight.

Darya Zheleznyakova -175 v Montserrat Rendon +147

I don’t think Rendon is that good, but I give her credit in beating Vidal in her last fight as a +200 underdog.

Her striking still isn’t great as it isn’t powerful, and it’s just one strike and move, but she just seems to find a way to squeak out rounds with a takedown or something good at the end of the round, and her cardio looked good in the three-round fight against Vidal so we know she’ll have plenty of energy if this goes the distance. Zheleznyakova is a really god striker who has a great stance, has quick jabs and hooks, and has shown power, but it’s been against pretty bad opponents.

The problem is Zheleznyakova leaves herself open for counter strikes, and in her loss, she got taken down and ended up getting ground and pounded out and Rendon’s ground game is way better than anything Zheleznyakova has faced.

Zheleznyakova can’t take getting hit, and while Rendon isn’t a great striker, I think Rendon survives on the feet, and gets this to the ground where she dominates. I’ll gladly take the underdog here.

Steven Nguyen -198 v Jarno Errens +164

I’ve been excited to fade Steven Nguyen when he got to the UFC, and I’m happy to get this price on Errens. I’ll start with Nguyen who gets a lot of hype, and I don’t get it.

He’s 30 years old, and has a 9-1 record, but it’s so fraudulent as he’s fought a who’s who of nobodies, and he got a UFC contract on his THIRD TIME ON CONTENDER SERIES!!!

He lost on his first try, he got a boring decision win in 2021 that he didn’t get a contract from, and they gave him AJ Cunningham in his third match, and Cunningham is a walking punching bag, and Nguyen knocked him out.

Nguyen fits perfectly into the “Fade the Contender Series Fighter Theory”, and while Errens isn’t a great fighter as he’s 0-2 in the UFC he lost to Gomis and Seung Woo Choi who are so much better than Nguyen.

Errens will get in Nguyen’s face from the start, put forward pressure on, and I think at some point will get a takedown and do good work on the ground to get the win.

Miles Johns -122 v Cody Gibson +102

I’m a fan of Miles Johns, I’ve done well betting on him so I might be a big partial to him, but he had a gigantic red flag on him for this fight.

Johns has good power on the feet, and while he doesn’t have the most amazing technique in wrestling and takedowns, he’s very strong so he’s a brute to take down and control, and his cardio is fantastic.

His last fight against Argueta was a lot of fun, and Johns had a lot of success on the feet and he got the victory, but Johns tested positive for steroids after the fight so this will be his first fight since then, and that is the big red flag.

It was a very tiny trace amount, so low that they don’t even test for that anymore. Cody Gibson fought Brad Katona in his UFC debut, and it was an amazing fight with tons of excitement on the feet with tons of strikes, and Gibson ended up losing that fight, and taking a lot of damage, but he was tough and did well on offense as well.

I think Johns has too much power for Gibson, but betting against guys who are coming off a positive drug test has worked well in the past so I can’t bet on Johns in this fight. It will be a pass for me.

Trey Ogden -148 v Kurt Holobaugh +124

Ogden got robbed of a win in his last fight as he was beating Motta, and was going for a submission when the ref stopped it early so it got ruled a no-contest despite Ogden dominating.

I think Ogden is better everywhere in this fight, and even though Holobaugh won his UFC debut against Austin Hubbard, I saw a lot of holes in his game, and his win was a bit fluky as he got the submission when Hubbard was on top.

He leaves himself open to getting taken down, and although he has good volume with his strikes, he leaves his head wide open, and I see Ogden taking advantage of all those weaknesses.

The counter punch will be wide open for Ogden, as will the takedown, and this price is pretty good. Ogden is the pick.

Fernando Padilla -175 v Luis Pajuelo +145

Pajuelo is coming off of a Contender Series win where his opponent was a grappler/ wrestler, but for some reason decided to try and strike with Pajuelo and Pajuelo knocked him out in round one.

Pajuelo seems to be a solid striker, but we haven’t seen a whole lot from him so I don’t think I can confidently say what I expect from him.

Padilla won his UFC debut but then suffered a loss against Kyle Nelson in his next fight, and Padilla had really good moments in that fight on the feet, but Nelson put on a savvy veteran performance where he weathered the early storm, and then stole rounds two and three, but I thought Padilla fought well, and I liked that he went three rounds against a UFC veteran and got some valuable cage time and experience (I thought Padilla won actually).

I like getting Padilla off a loss here, and I think his length and striking will be too much for Pajuelo. I like Padilla a lot here.

Billy Quarantillo -162 v Youssef Zalal +136

Interesting fight here as Zalal got cut by the UFC, but he has won several fights in the Sparta promotion along with a kickboxing and boxing win, and makes his return to the UFC against Billy Q, and we’ve seen this situation before.

Modestas Bukaskas got cut by the UFC, came back, and had success as we cashed on him beating Tyson Pedro, but I liked the situation much better for Bukaskas.

Quarantillo has a really good pace, and volume, and I don’t know where Zalal’s advantage is. It’s not going to be on the feet as Quarantillo has great movement and doesn’t absorb too much damage, and on the ground, Quarantillo is very active.

The fact is, he has fought horrible opponents since leaving the UFC, and now he comes back to fight a legit UFC fighter and I think he gets outclassed here. I think -162 may look like a steal after this fight, I love Billy Q in this one.

Payton Talbott -142 v Cameron Saimann +125

Great matchmaking here as two promising young guys square off. Saimann is coming off a loss to Christian Rodriguez as Rodriguez is becoming the gatekeeper to young fighters, and I expect this fight to be a bit wild as both guys have upside, yet big holes in their game.

If I’m being honest, Saimann’s three wins in the UFC have been against guys who shouldn’t be or aren’t in the UFC and C-Rod put it on Saimann in rounds two and three and pieced him up on the feet and on the ground and Saimann’s striking defense and cardio looked very questionable.

Talbott struggled on the ground in the first round against Nick Aguirre in his debut before turning the tide and eventually getting the finish, but his takedown defense left a lot to be desired.

I think the biggest advantage a fighter has in this fight is Talbott’s advantage on the feet. Talbott is long and powerful, and I think he can wear Saimann down as the fight goes on, I’m not sure that Saimann has the weapons to take full advantage of the weaknesses of Talbott.

I think this fight will be wild, but I like Talbott to take this one.

Edmen Shahbazyan -180 v Aj Dobson +150

Shahbazyan only 1-4 in his last five fights, but he’s lost to Fluffy Hernandez, Nassourdine Imavov, and Jack Hermansson in that span so he’s losing against great fighters.

I don’t think Dobson is a great fighter as he’s 1-2 in the UFC, and at 32 years old I don’t see a lot of upside. He got the decision win against Nchukwi in his last fight, but that fight was as boring as it gets.

Very low volume, not a lot of power, and if we’re looking at who has more weapons, more energy, and more ways to finish it’s Shahbazyan by far and that’s who I’m picking here. Dobson is as lackluster as it gets, Shahbazyan should overwhelm and take this fight.

Karl Williams -218 v Justin Tafa +180

This is a wrestler vs striker matchup as Wiliams will look to wrestle Tafa and Tafa will look to land the big KO shot. Williams has great wrestling, but his cardio is a bit suspect, and Tafa ia a really big, strong guy who is tough to take down.

If Williams takes him down and controls him, he’ll waltz to an easy win, but if he doesn’t get him down and he gasses himself out, Tafa will knock him out.

It’s a bit concerning that Tafa had to drop out of his fight at UFC 298 with a leg injury, but if he’s good to go in this fight I think he’s worth a sprinkle to win by KO when props come out. We’ll probably be getting +200 or better on Tafa by knockout and that’s worth a play in this fight.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Amanda Ribas +205 vs Rose Namajunas -260

Rose is coming off of two straight losses with the first being against Carla Esparza in one of the strangest fights we’ve ever seen. Combined in a 5-round fight, the ladies landed 67 strikes…37 for Rose and 30 for Carla.

Rose’s corner was telling her that she was winning for some reason, and it was one of the worst corner coaching jobs in UFC history. Rose could have won that fight, but held back and regretted it as she lost a close split decision loss.

In the next fight, she moved up to flyweight and fought the striking machine that is Manon Fiorot who is 5’7” and just bigger. Rose was outgunned by the bigger fighter, but she performed well and looked like her old self, and her corner gave her the correct advice in the fight.

So she’s coming off of two losses and gets a big step down in competition, and we get a great betting opportunity.

Amanda Ribas is high energy and high volume, but she’s sloppy at times and has terrible striking defense.

She’s 2-2 in her last four fights, and her wins are against opponents that Rose Namajunas would easily beat in my opinion.

In her last fight against Luana Pinheiro, she got the 3rd round knockout, but Ribas got beat up badly in the first round before she weathered the storm. Pinheiro gassed out and got knocked out, but I’m pretty sure Ribas was losing that fight until the knockout.

Her previous win was against Viviane Araujo who is 2-4 in her last 6 fights, and Ribas was able to take Araujo down and control her and land ground and pound.

She just isn’t going to be able to do that against Rose. Ribas is 5’3”, so Rose is going to be bigger, and this is a 5-round fight and Rose has fought in plenty of them so she knows how to pace herself, and although Ribas has good cardio, she can tire herself out searching for positions or strikes that aren’t there.

Also, in a 5-round fight, I believe Rose is going to land damage in the early rounds that will slow Ribas down and wear her out.

A 3-round fight would give Ribas a better chance to sneak out a couple of rounds, but I don’t see her winning three rounds out of five against Rose, and I don’t see a finish from Ribas as Rose can defend the strikes and ground game of Ribas.

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