UFC Fight Night: Royval vs Taira Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds October 12

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night and picks for October 12th with the main event headlined by Brandon Royval vs Tatsuro Taira in a welterweight fight. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.

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Brandon Royval vs Tatsuro Taira: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, October 12	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Brandon Royval +160 vs Tatsuro Taira -190
Rounds:	3.5 (Over -120 / Under -110)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN+

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UFC Fight Night Predictions

Clayton Carpenter -175 vs Lucas Rocha +145

Both these guys haven’t fought in a while so I expect them to be fresh and ready to scrap. Carpenter should have a massive advantage with the takedown and grappling as Rocha is coming off a KO win on Contender Series last season, but he was dominated on the ground for the first round before landing a huge knee to start round two.

Rocha is only 24 years old, but has 18 fights and while he has a great record, I see so many holes in his game. His striking defense isn’t great, his takedown defense is bad, but he has this ability to turn fights into wild brawls where he excels and has gotten plenty of knockouts in his career.

I don’t think his style is going to hold up in the UFC without some serious adjustments so I’ll take Carpenter to expose those weaknesses and get the win here.

Don’t be surprised if he gets the submission on the ground, and Rocha is always live for a KO so taking this fight to not go the distance might be a good look.

Themba Gorimbo -278 vs Niko Price +225

Gorimbo has one of the more interesting story in the UFC as he was so broke, he couldn’t afford food, and his fighting looked like it. He got some help from some fighters, and then The Rock of all people, and it’s resulted in three straight wins in the UFC.

He prefers to clinch, wrestle, and get the fight to the ground, and now that he has proper nutrition, he has really good cardio to keep with the grueling style for three rounds.

Niko Price’s career is on life support as he’s 2-5 in his last seven fights, and the only reason he beat Morono in his last fight was because Morono gassed worse than Price, but in the first round Morono was beating him, including some grappling moments where Price looked bad.

Gorimbo should be able to close the distance, force Price to defend the wrestling and takedowns, and wear Price out en route to a decision win. It probably won’t be an exciting fight, but it should be a comfortable win for Gorimbo.

Junior Tafa -345 vs Chris Barnett +275

Friends don’t let friends lay -345 on Junior Tafa. Both these guys aren’t very good, but Tafa’s lack of takedown defense and wrestling is a massive problem, and if Barnett can force the issue and get on top of Tafa, he’ll win.

He won his last fight by getting on top of Collier and getting the ground-and-pound finish, and all he has to do is not get KO’d in the first and I like his chances here at plus money.

I keep hearing about how good of a striker Junior Tafa is, but I don’t see it. He’s knocked out Parker Porter, and lost his other three fights in the UFC, and he is the true definition of a one-trick-pony.

This price is insane, I’ll take a sprinkle on Barnett to avoid the big shot early, get Tafa down and win by ground-and-pound or decision.

Jonathan Pearce -130 vs Pat Sabatini +110

This should be a really close fight as both guys like to shoot takedowns, and get the fight to the ground so it comes down to who can assert their will the best. Sabatini is terrible with striking as his last two losses came by KO so Pearce may want to keep this on the feet for as long as he can.

Pearce has lost two in a row, but they weren’t bad losses. He was dominating Brito before making a mistake and getting caught in a submission, and his fight against Onama was a war with tons of takedowns, reversals and striking, and the decision could have gone either way.

I’ll lean Pearce as his striking is so much better than Sabatini, but it’s not confident enough to bet with my own money.

Ramazan Temirov -258 vs CJ Vergara +210

Temirov has been on a tear recently as he’s won his last four fights by finish, but this isn’t going to be an easy fight for him. Vergara’s last two losses have come to guys who took him down and controlled the fight on the ground, but that’s not Temirov’s game.

Vergara has great cardio, solid movement, and a nice variety of strikes with punches and kicks so I think he’ll have success at times making this fight closer than the line shows.

I don’t know enough about Temirov to make a bet on this fight, but I wouldn’t be laying -258, and I think this fight could go the distance as Vergara has never been knocked out. Overs or nothing for me in this fight.

Cody Haddon -185 vs Dan Argueta +154

I love Argueta here at this price. Haddon is coming off a Contender Series win, but his level of competition has been pretty bad, and his opponent on CS was from A1 Combat, and we’ve been fading them with a lot of success.

He has decent striking, and a good ground game, but stepping up to Argueta could be a rude awakening. Argueta likes to wrestle, and get the fight to the ground, and he’s going to easily be the strongest and best opponent that Haddon has faced.

My hesitation is that he looked slow in his last fight against Matsumoto, especially on the feet. His striking was awful, and while he kept pushing forward, Matsumoto was able to weather the storm until Argueta tired, and made a big mistake giving up his neck and getting submitted.

Haddon’s biggest advantage in this fight will be his speed and cardio, but don’t be surprised if Argueta puts on a veteran performance and frustrates Haddon. I won’t bet this with my own money, but Argueta at plus money is the pick.

Chidi Njokuani -185 vs Jared Gooden +154

This is a terrible fight that I won’t be betting on, but you’re asking for trouble laying -185 on Chidi. His cardio has been truly awful in some fights, and even though he’s coming off a win, it was a horrible fight where him an McKee hugged for the last two rounds, and it was a razor thin split decision win for Chidi.

I don’t have a lot of nice things to say about Gooden either, but I have a lot more faith in his cardio in rounds one and two, and his volume should be better the later the fight goes.

I think this fight may go the distance as both guys may not have the energy to finish after the first round, but it’s Gooden at plus money as the only way to play a side.

Julia Polastri -142 vs Cory McKenna +120

In a fight this close, the only play is McKenna at plus money. Polastri got walked down by Knutsson most of the fight in her last contest, and McKenna does a good job pushing forward on the feet.

McKenna got submitted pretty easily in her last fight so she’ll not want this on the ground, but she did well pushing Vlismas up against the fence and controlling her two fights ago so that would seem to be the game plan.

Push forward, defend the takedown and grind out the minutes. If Polastri gets it on the ground, she has the big advantage, but I’m not sure the takedowns will be that easy. It’s dog or pass in this one.

Abdul Razak Alhassan -155 vs Josh Fremd +130

Alhassan will have the big power advantage, and on paper Fremd should have the ability to take Alhassan down and win on the ground, but Fremd has disappointed in the past.

Both guys have cardio issues, but Alhassan’s energy can really fall off a cliff the later the fight goes. Alhassan will be looking to land big shots early, and if he connects it will be lights out for Fremd, but if he can’t get the early finish, I think Fremd grinds him down and wins a decision.

I don’t trust either of these guys, but I definitely don’t trust Alhassan at -155 so while I won’t be betting this fight, Fremd is the way to bet this.

This fight could also be a great live betting opportunity. If Alhassan doesn’t get the finish, and you see him start to slow down towards the end of round 1, fire a live bet on Fremd.

Daniel Rodriguez -205 vs Alex Morono +170

Both of these guys are past their prime, and only have a few fights left in the UFC, but Morono really looks like he’s nearing the end of his UFC career.

We’ve seen his cardio really fall off in the third round of his last two fights, and he doesn’t have powerful enough strikes to finish early so I think he’s in trouble here.

In his last fight against Niko Price, he won the first round and then gassed out and lost the last two rounds on the feet, and I could easily see that happening again here.

DRod has lost three in a row, but losing to Magny, Garry and Gastelum isn’t too bad as those guys are light years better than Morono.

Morono can still grapple early in the fight, but after that I expect DRod to have the better cardio and to win this on the feet in a low volume, boring fight. DRod by decision.

Grant Dawson -380 vs Rafa Garcia +300

Grant Dawson getting knocked out right as the fight against Bobby Green started just looks so weird on his resume, but make no mistake, that was a fluke, and Dawson got right back to his winning ways in his next fight against Solecki.

His takedowns and wrestling are elite, and once he gets his opponent on the ground, and locks in the body triangle, the fight isn’t going anywhere for the rest of the round.

Garcia is coming off a nice win against Clay Guida where he really beat him up on the feet, but Dawson isn’t going to mess around with striking on the feet. Dawson will get the takedowns, and grind out the win once again.

Jun Yong Park -180 vs Brad Tavares +150

I’ve cashed on Tavares’s last four fights so I feel like I have a good read on him. He’s slow and low volume at this point, and he really doesn’t have any upside.

His recent wins are against the corpse of Chris Weidman, and Akhmedov and Antonio Junior who aren’t in the UFC anymore. He has good takedown defense, but his striking isn’t scaring anyone, and he doesn’t have a ground game.

Park is coming off a frustrating loss to Muniz where Muniz held him down the entire fight and did no damage so this is a nice get-right fight for him. He should have more volume with his strikes, and he’s a great submission fighter so he has multiple paths to victory.

Takedowns might be tough for him against Tavares, but it will keep Tavares on his back foot and against the fence. Park is the play.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Brandon Royval +160 vs Tatsuro Taira -190

Taira is 16-0, but I don’t think he’s going to finish his career undefeated, but this could be where he finally gets the loss.

Taira is coming off a win against Perez where Perez suffered a knee injury, but Perez was having success against Taira. Taira has fantastic grappling, but his striking still isn’t elite, and it’s still a work in progress.

That’s where I think Royval has the advantage as his hands are faster, and I don’t think Royval is going to respect the striking.

Royval has only lost to Pantoja and Moreno in the last six years so he’s fought the best, and I don’t think Taira’s ground game is going to surprise Royval as he’s dealt with Pantoja several times.

The jabs and reach of Royval are going to be a problem for Taira, and the longer Royval keeps this on the feet, the more and more he’ll do damage and frustrate Taira.

Royval is also used to five round fights so we know his pace and cardio will be fine. I’ll take Royval at the nice +160 to hand Taira his first loss.

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