UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs Tybura Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds March 16

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for March 16th with Tai Tuivasa and Marcin Tybura headlining the event in a heavyweight fight. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.

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Tai Tuivasa vs Marcin Tybura: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, March 16	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Tai Tuivasa -125 vs Marcin Tybura +105
Rounds:	1.5 Rounds (Over -180 / Under +140)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN+

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UFC Fight Night Predictions

Charalampos Grigoriou -205 v Chad Anheliger +170

The price on Grigoriou is pure insanity in this fight. Grigoriou is coming off a quick knockout win on Contender Series, but the guy he was fighting was terrible, and I think the books are putting way too much stock into that.

Anheliger isn’t a great fighter as he’s lost two straight, and he’s 37, but he’s a big step up in competition for Grigoriou. Anheliger has ok striking, and he can grapple, and he definitely has cardio so that’s a recipe for him to keep this fight close.

We’ve seen these Contender Series guys make their UFC debut this year, and most of them have not looked great when they fight UFC fighters, and it appears the difference in competition from Contender Series to the UFC is much wider than we might think.

Grigoriou fights cocky and with his hands down, and I’m picking the upset here as I think Anheliger just outworks Grigoriou with better volume on the striking, and moments where he scores takedowns and has ground control.

Cory McKenna -120 v Jaqueline Amorim +100

This fight is about as close as it gets, and the odds properly reflect that as both fighters have similar skillsets.

Both have good forward pressure, solid striking and both can have success on the feet and on the ground. I’ll give the slight edge to Amorim here though because I think she she can do a bit more damage and work on the ground.

In McKenna’s last fight against Vlismas, McKenna was able to clinch and control Vlismas, and in round three she got the takedown and controlled her the entire round for the win, but there wasn’t a ton of damage.

I think Amorim has a bit more power than McKenna and when they get in the clinch and on the ground Amorim will do more damage in the eyes of the judges. It’s a super close fight, and I think it goes the distance, but I like Amorim in this matchup.

Josh Culibao -198 v Danny Silva +164

Silva is coming off of a crazy fight on Contender Series where he landed over 200 significant strikes on the feet, and he showed plenty of cardio and accurate striking.

The problem was that his opponent also landed over 200 significant strikes, and the fight was just two guys punching each other, and Silva didn’t show me too many levels to his game.

Culibao is coming off a loss to Lerone Murphy, who is undefeated, but the fight was very close and we saw Culibao show he can clinch, work leg and body kicks, and just do a lot more than Silva.

I think Culibao has more weapons and this is a massive step up in competition from what Silva has been fighting, and I’ve not been impressed with these Contender Series fighters from last season.

I think Silva is tough, but Culibao will piece him up from many different angles and show Silva he needs to add more weapons to his game to succeed in the UFC. Culibao is a confident pick for me.

Jafel Filho -175 v Ode Osbourne +145

Filho almost shocked the world when he almost make Mokaev tap in his UFC debut on short notice, and even though he lost, he looked like he belonged in the UFC, and he looked great in his next fight when he finished Barez with a nice submission after Barez rocked Filho early.

It was a crazy fight where Filho got hurt early, but he weathered the storm, got the takedown and the quick finish.

Ode Osbourne is not looking good these days as he lost to Tyson Nam trying to do a really dumb jumping knee that caused him to get KO’d, and he lost to Almabaev by submission, and in between won a split decision against Charles Johnson that he could have easily lost.

Osbourne’s wins are against fighters with little to no success in the UFC, and he has very limited upside.

I love the toughness and aggression from Filho, and he’s showed good submission skills and I believe that’s how he wins here. I like Filho to win, and it might be worth a sprinkle to take him to win by submission when props come out.

Isaac Dulgarian -148 v Christian Rodriguez +124

Dulgarian fights like an energy drink as it’s high pressure, big bursts of power, and lots of early finishes. He’s overwhelmed all six of his opponents in his career including getting the early finish against Francis Marshall in his UFC debut.

Rodriguez is a patient veteran with good ground game, and he fights very differently as he’s slow and methodical and likes to wear down his opponent. He’s going to have to survive the early onslaught of Dulgarian, and what’s difficult for us is we don’t know what Dulgarian will look like in rounds two and three because he’s never been there.

I feel like if you are wanting to bet on Dulgarian, just take him to win by finish, and that’s what the play will be.

Rodriguez has won his last two fights by getting beat up in round one, and then winning the next two rounds when his opponents gassed out, but that’s playing with fire too much, and I think Dulgarian does what Rosas Jr. and Saiman couldn’t do which is finish C-Rod in the first.

I’ll wait til props come out and then take Dulgarian to win inside the distance.

Josiane Nunes -142 v Chelsea Chandler +120

Nunes has won all three of her UFC fights, but there are concerns for sure as she’s short, and it makes it difficult for her to close the distance and get inside.

She has good striking, and she’s very aggressive on the feet, but her striking can a bit sloppy at times, and she leaves herself open to get hit.

Chandler is an aggressive striker as well who also has questionable strike defense, and she really struggled on the ground against Norma Dumont in her last fight, but Nunes doesn’t wrestle so Chandler probably won’t have to work about it.

I think Nunes edges out Chandler with pure volume, but this will probably be a pretty close fight on the feet so it’s a dog or pass situation. I do think this fight could go the distance as both fighters lose their finishing power after the first round so that’s probably the only way I could see myself getting involved with this fight.

MIke Davis -270 v Natan Levy +220

Mike Davis doesn’t fight very often, but when he does, he’s really good. He only has one loss in the UFC, and that was to Gilbert Burns in 2019. He’s won three straight, and I think he takes care of business here against Natan Levy.

Levy is 2-1 in the UFC, and his two wins are against guys who are a combined 1-5, and the one win was one of the more bizarre wins you’ll ever see against a UFC debutant.

Levy couldn’t even finish those two guys, and he lost his other UFC fight to Rafa Garcia. He’s not very fast, doesn’t have powerful striking, and his ground game is ok, but Mike Davis is much better everywhere, and Davis will be the bigger fighter.

The layoff worries me a bit for Davis, but the skill level makes this an easy pick for me. Davis should win.

Gerald Meerschaert -192 v Bryan Barberena +160

Both guys really need a win here as Meerschaert is 1-3 in his last four, and Barberena has lost three straight. I get why Meerschaert is the favorite as Barberena’s big weakness is grappling and ground game, and that’s where Meerschaert should have the big advantage.

However, fights start on the feet and Barberena will have the striking advantage so it’s pretty clear that if Barberena keeps it on the feet, he will win with the striking, but if Meerschaert gets it to the ground and keeps it there, he will win.

I haven’t seen anything to like about Barberena in a while as his cardio isn’t that great, and he just moved up a weight division and got beat up pretty bad by Muradov in his last fight.

I’ll pick Meerschaert to win the fight, but no chance I’m laying close to -192 on Gerald Meerschaert. I won’t be betting on this fight.

Macy Chiasson -170 v Pannie Kianzad +142

Chiasson is the rightful favorite here as Kianzad has lost two out of three fights, but to the eye test, she’s looked worse than 1-2. Her win was against Lina Lansberg who lost four in a row and is retired I believe.

Kianzad has trouble getting taken down, and Chiasson is good enough with her takedowns to control Kianzad for large parts of the fight.

Chiasson is coming off a loss, but what a random loss it was where Chiasson seemed to be winning in the third round before Irene Aldana landed a crazy up kick to the liver that knocked out Chiasson, and it was the first-ever KO in that fashion in the UFC.

Chiasson is stronger and has better power, and while this fight will probably go to a decision, I think Chiasson will win comfortably. Chiasson is the pick.

Kennedy Nzechukwu -500 v Ovince Saint Preux +380

Don’t overthink this one. Nzechukwu will win as this could be OSP’s retirement fight, and if it isn’t his last fight it could look like it should be.

He hasn’t beaten anyone meaningful in years, and he’s old and slow to be blunt. Nzechukwu just lost to Dustin Jacoby when he got caught with a great strike from Jacoby that put him down, but before that, he had won three fights, and he’s nine years younger with more speed and more paths to victory.

He has submission and KO wins on his resume, and he’s the biggest favorite on the card for a reason. He should easily win this fight.

Bryan Battle -142 v Ange Loosa +120

I’ve done well betting on Bryan Battle fights as I’ve had a good read on him since he got the UFC, and I’ve loved his evolution.

His striking has gotten better every fight, and he has wrestling that is above average, and his ground game causes problems for everyone except the best of the best on the roster. He’s shown good patience and a solid game plan in his fights, and his only loss is to Rinat Fakhretdinov, no shame in that.

He was very patient in his last win against AJ Fletcher, but he was almost too patient as he lost the first round before submitting him in the second, and even though he got the win, I thought he looked a bit cocky.

Loosa is a pretty good matchup for him, and I thought Loosa looked good against Rhys McKee in his last fight as he showed good wrestling and striking, and the volume was really good on the feet, and those are the tools needed to beat Bryan Battle.

I want to bet on Battle in this fight as I think he’s better, but if Battle comes out cocky, and gives away a round like he did in his last fight, it could be a very sweaty fight. Battle is better and should win, but I smell a close decision in this fight so I’ll lay off it from a betting perspective.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Tai Tuivasa -130 vs Marcin Tybura +110

This fight is pretty gross to bet on to be honest. Tybura just got knocked out quickly by Tom Aspinall, a Championship-caliber fighter.

Before that he beat Blagoy Ivanov who is older and has lost four out of five fights so he’s fought ends of the spectrum recently and I would put Tuivasa in the middle.

Tuivasa has lost three in a row, but he fought monsters so it’s no surprise he lost any of those. Both these guys are low volume, and not very skilled. The value is in Tybura at plus money, but there’s no way I’m betting a penny on this fight.

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