UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs Spivac Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds August 10

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night and picks for August 10th with the main event headlined by Serghei Spivac vs Marcin Tybura in a heavyweight fight. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.

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Serghei Spivac vs Marcin Tybura: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, August 10	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Serghei Spivac -155 vs Marcin Tybura +130
Rounds:	3.5 Rounds (Over -115 / Under -115)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN

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UFC Fight Night Predictions

Stephanie Luciano -185 vs Talita Alencar +154

This is a rematch from Contender Series, and nothing has really changed since that match that ended in a draw. Alencar shoots for takedowns, and wants this fight to take place on the ground, and Luciano wants it to stay on the feet.

Alencar has had a UFC fight since CS, and she did win the fight, and her striking did look much better than on Contender Series, but she still has real problems with striking defense, and she just eats a ton of punches and kicks on the feet.

Her cardio in the 3rd round is a problem, and on CS, Luciano was able to take advantage and get a 10-8 round three, but Alencar did look to have more energy in round three of her UFC debut.

When Alencar had energy in the CS fight she was able to take Luciano down and win the first two rounds, and I think there’s a chance the same thing happens.

I don’t think Alencar is good, but she’s improved quite a bit since CS, and she has a full three-round UFC fight under her belt, and Luciano hasn’t had a fight since then.

It’s not going to be a great fight, but I think Alencar at +154 is the only way to play the sides on this fight, but I will most certainly be taking this fight to go the distance as the fighters are pretty equal, and I don’t see who will have any finishing ability in this fight.

Youssef Zalal -375 vs Jarno Errens +295

This line is bonkers. Absolutely crazy. I think this fight is way closer to a pick ‘em so I won’t be playing Zalal in any parlays even though I think he should win.

We had a nice cash on Errens in his last fight against Steve Nguyen where he showed improved striking and cardio, but I just really worry about his lack of takedown defense.

Zalal is getting a second chance in the UFC and by all accounts he’s confident about having a nice run. He got a win in his return against Billy Quarantillo, but it was obvious Billy Q was injurred so Zalal got a nice gift in that fight.

I see Errens having some success on the feet, but Zalal controlling the fight with wrestling and grappling en route to a decision win.

If you think this -375 is crazy like I do, play Zalal to win by decision, or just take overs in this fight as I don’t see either of these guys getting knocked out, and really the only finish I see as a possibility is Zalal submission on the ground, but I think Errens has the athleticism to not get stuck in one.

Karl Williams -218 vs Jhonata Diniz +180

This is just a wrestler vs. striker match as Diniz will want this to stay on the feet so he can utilize his brutal striking, and Williams will be looking to wrestle and take Diniz down all fight.

I don’t think Diniz has faced anyone even remotely close to Karl Williams, and I think this is going to be a frustrating fight for him.

Williams doesn’t mess around on the feet, he just goes right for the takedowns, and he’s had success against everyone in the UFC as he’s 3-0, and he’s used the same strategy every time.

Williams is the play, and one other thing to note is that Williams’s cardio seems to be getting a bit better as he was able to get takedowns and ground and pound late in the third round against Tafa in his last fight so I don’t think he’ll be gassed towards the end. Williams is the play for me.

Karol Rosa -185 vs Pannie Kianzad +145

I don’t have a ton of great things to say about either fighter so I won’t be betting this fight, but Rosa is the only play here.

Kianzad can’t beat anybody good as her only win in her last 4 fights was against Lina Lansberg who is no longer fighting.

She has really bad takedown defense, and mediocre striking, and while I don’t know if Rosa will be able to exploit the lack of takedown defense, I do think she’s going to have a bit more stamina and a bit more volume with her strikes.

Rosa really got beat up by Aldana in her last fight, but she toughed it out, and made it the distance even though she was overmatched.

This fight probably goes the distance, but Pannie looked so bad in her last fight getting submitted in the first round, I don’t want to bet on her lasting all 3 rounds. I won’t be betting this fight with my money.

Danny Barlow -340 vs Nikolay Veretennikov +270

A strikers delight here as Veretennikov makes his UFC debut, and it’s a pretty brutal debut as Barlow is one of the more powerful strikers in the UFC, and he’s by far the toughest striker Nikolay has ever faced.

Nikolay has a lot of experience, but he doesn’t look that great on the feet despite his good record. He’s slower than Barlow and has benefitted from facing quite a few lackluster opponents.

There’s also a red flag with Nikolay as I don’t like seeing guys get their first UFC fight late in their career, and NIkolay is 34.

He had a fight on Contender Series, but lost to Michael Morales, and that was 3 years ago, and he’s only had 3 fights since. Barlow is the rightful favorite here, I think he gets the win, probably by knocking him out with that vicious left hand of his.

Charalampos Grigoriou -218 vs Toshiomi Kazama +180

There are lots of ways to play this one. First off, it’s a Kazama fight so it’s not going the distance so we’re taking unders as his only 2 UFC fights haven’t gotten out of the first round.

His striking defense is truly awful, and Nakamura and Armfield knocked him out so that leads me to Grigoriou to win by KO. Out of Grigoriou’s 8 wins, 7 have been by finish so I look for him to test that weak chin of Kazama early and often.

We did see Grigoriou get exhausted against Anheliger in his last fight so I think Grigoriou by first round KO might be worth a sprinkle at a nice plus money price because if he doesn’t get him out of there in the first, he may not have the energy later on.

Kazama is pretty terrible so I think Grigoriou gets it done by KO, and with the unders as well, I think there are lots of ways to bet this fight and make money.

Allan Nascimento -205 vs Jafel Filho +170

Two guys who have excellent BJJ face off here in what should be a great fight if you’re a fan of grappling and submissions. Filho has looked really good in the UFC as he almost got the upset over Mokaev in his debut, and then he finished Barez and Osbourne with submissions after that.

Nascimento took several years off after losing on Contender Series in 2018, but he’s won 3 of 4 in his return with his loss being a split decision loss to Ulanbekov.

I think both guys are going to struggle to initiate takedowns and get dominant positions because they’re both so skilled with grappling and BJJ and I think the over is a sneaky way to play this fight.

Neither guy looks like a striker who can finish the other, and there could be big chunks of this fight that are standoffs with both guys defending the other. I’ll lean Nascimento to edge out a close fight, but overs are how I would be looking at this fight.

Yana Santos -135 vs Chelsea Chandler +114

It’s an ever so slight lean to Santos here, but this is another fight I expect to go the distance. Chandler has never been finished, and although Santos has been finished a few times, her last 2 fights went the distance, and they were both losses, but she wasn’t really rocked or anything.

Both fighters like to clinch, and throw strikes from distance, but I don’t see the one-punch KO power behind any of the strikes.

Neither are submission specialists so I don’t see a submission in this one, so I think this fight is really close and will go to the scorecards.

Chandler is a bull in a china shop when she fights, and she leaves herself open to getting hit on the feet and I think Santos will be able to do some damage to her so that’s who I give the edge to, but the only way I’ll be this fight is to go over 2.5 or go the distance.

Chepe Mariscal -218 vs Damon Jackson +180

Mariscal has won all 3 of his UFC fights, but the win against Jenkins was when Jenkins broke his arm going to the mat, and his last win was very controversial as he got a split decision against Charriere where I though he clearly lost.

Jackson, and his amazing hairplugs, are coming off a great win against Hernandez where he showed good striking, good clinch, and good cardio, and at this price I think he’s worth a play.

Chepe is as tough as they come, but I think he’s a bit limited on offense. His striking is bit predictable, and against Charriere he shot takedowns, but didn’t do anything with them, and Jackson will certainly be more technical with the takedowns and ground game.

Jackson can get tired late in the fight so I would worry about him winning round 3, but at +180 I could see him squeaking out a close decision win.

Javid Basharat -258 vs Chris Gutierrez +210

Both guys are coming off losses, which is rare as they have a combined record of 34-6 so I expect a very close fight.

I actually think the loss for Basharat was good for him, as he was getting a bit cocky, and sometimes getting humbled can be a good thing.

On the feet, both guys like to strike at distance, and Basharat likes to use his striking to set up the takedown where he’s fantastic at control time and position.

Gutierrez might be tough to take down as he stands so far at range that getting close enough to shoot is tough, but it’s also hard for him to do damage to his opponents as his volume is low, and he throws a lot of kicks.

In his last fight, Song was able to take him down in round 2, and he held him there for the rest of the round, and then he did the same thing in rounds 4, and 5 so surely Basharat took notice. I think Basharat wins the fight, but -258 is pretty crazy. That being said, I’m not betting on Gutierrez in this fight

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Serghei Spivac -155 vs Marcin Tybura +130

I really don’t have a strong opinion on how to bet this main event so I’ll be sitting this one out. Both guys have shown good wrestling, takedowns and finishes recently, but they probably cancel each other out so I don’t see who has the advantage in the wrestling and ground game.

I would lean Spivac as I really like how his game has evolved, but we just watched him have no success against Gane, and on the feet he got tired and knocked out in round 2.

Tybura isn’t amazing on the feet, but I’ve watched him go deep into fights, and if he can get this out of round 1, I see him having the cardio advantage based on how gassed Spivac looked against Gane.

The under 3.5 rounds is -130, and maybe that’s the best way to play this as I think Spivac needs a finish early, and if he doesn’t get it he may be in trouble quick. Keep your live lines open, and the second you see Spivac start to gas, jump on Tybura, but pre-fight I’ll pass.

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