UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs Dolidze Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds March 15

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night picks and predictions for March 15 with the main event headlined by Marvin Vettori vs Roman Dolidze in a middleweight fight. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV.

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Marvin Vettori vs Roman Dolidze: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, March 15	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Marvin Vettori -150 vs Roman Dolidze +125
Rounds:	4.5 (Over -220 / Under +170)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN+

UFC Fight Night Predictions

Josiane Nunes -205 vs Priscila Cachoeira +170

Cachoeira has been dominated in her last 2 fights by women who can take her down and control the ground game, but I’m not sure Nunes can do that as she’s primarily a striker, and to be honest I’m not sure Nunes is all that good. She’s undersized, she’s short with almost no neck, and she’s really struggled in her last 2 fights losing to

Chandler and Cavalcantie. I think this fight takes place all on the feet, and Cachoeira with her length is going to be too much for Nunes.

Cacoeira is probably going to love that she isn’t fighting someone who will take her down and submit her so look for her confidence to be high from the start. I’ll take the underdog here.

Su Young You -700 vs AJ Cunningham +500

There’s no other way to put it…AJ Cunninham is terrible. He lost on Contender Series, went to RDC and beat a guy with a losing record, and then steps in for the UFC to take on Ludovit Klein, and he gets obliterated.

His durabilty isn’t there, his cardio isn’t there, his striking isn’t there, he’s just not UFC caliber. You isn’t great, but he’s coming off winning Road To UFC, and he has decent enough striking and cardio to get this out of round 1 where Cunningham’s energy will fall off a cliff.

It’s an insane moneline number, but we’ll have to use it in a parlay or something because I refuse to not make money off of fading AJ Cunningham. You is the pick.

Josias Musasa -625 vs Carlos Vera +455

Veteran vs a young prospect here, and I like the raw athleticism to overcome his lack of experience. Musasa won a really close fight on Contender Series against a really good fighter, and he showed great cardio, and solid striking.

His striking defense needs work, and with only 8 total fights on his resume, he’s going to get better every fight.

Vera doens’t have a lot of upside as he got dominated by Nakamura on the ground, and before that he lost to Katona on TUF. He’s 37, he’s been around a while, and he just doesn’t have any upside.

I think this will be a fight on the feet, maybe Vera tries to mix in takedowns, but Musasa should be fine with fighting them off and getting back to his feet. Vera is a tough veteran so I don’t think he gets finished so Musas by decision will be the play.

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Stephanie Luciano -258 vs Sam Hughes +210

Here we go with Sam Hughes being completely undervalued, she’s the pick here. Luciano had a draw against Alencar on Contender Series so they run it back in the UFC and she gets the win, but she was really unimpressive.

The striking wasn’t powerful, and she just got the benefit of fighting an undersized grappler who can’t strike.

Sam Hughes is a bit undersized, but she just doesn’t quit and has good cardio and aggression for 3 rounds, and I think she can get the takedown on Luciano if she wants.

I just don’t think Luciano has the striking to scare Hughes, I think Hughes does what she does, which is keep this close and win by decision.

Carli Judice -425 vs Yuneisy Duben +330

Duben is coming off the moment of the season on Contender Series where she was a massive underdog who hadn’t fought anyone good, and somehow got the flash KO win that stunned everyone.

I still don’t think she’s that good. Judic has good volume on the feet, and she just needs to not get knocked out, and I think she dominates.

Judice lost a close split decision against Fernandes, but it was a solid showing as she had moments in the clinch and with the striking.

Before her CS win, Duben had only fought fighters who were 0-0 so I’m not going to overreact to a lucky win. Judice is the play.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta -155 vs Ryan Spann +140

Spann looked great when he knocked out Dominick reyes, but he immediately lost 3 in a row before getting a win over the corpse of the retiring Ovince St. Preaux, but I’m not buying it.

His cardio goes away after the first round, and we just watched Cortes-Acosta beat Despaigne and Arlovski, guys who struggle with cardio as well.

I think this is pretty easy. Spann will need the early finish, if he doesn’t get it Cortes-Acosta will pull away in rounds 2 and 3 and get the late finish on the ground or win a decision. Great live bet opportunity on Waldo if this gets out of the first.

Andre Lima -310 vs Daniel Barez +250

Lima looked great in his last fight against Santos as he showed his power, but more important, he showed good ground game and control time, and I think that will be the difference in this fight.

I wasn’t high on Lima who barely beat Mitch Raposo, but he won me over in his last fight. Barez is a good striker, but I don’t think he has the goods to thwart the takedowns, and once on the ground, Lima won’t let him up.

I give the volume edge to Barez, but the power and takedown advantages to Lima. It’s probably going to be a close fight, but Lima should win a round or 2 just with his ground game. Lima is the pick.

Kevin Vallejos -485 vs Seung Woo Choi +370

Vallejos lost on his first CS attempt to a fighter named Jean Silva, and he took Silva to decision so that loss has aged nice. He got another chance on CS this past season and he KO’d Teague in the first to get the contract.

His striking looks fantastic, as does his movement and I don’t worry about him making his debut as he could be one of the best to come out of this last CS season.

I’ve seen him control fighters on the ground and get solid ground and pound so he’s dangerous on Choi has decent striking, but his striking defense is bad, and his only win recently is over Jarno Errens where he used his takedowns, but I don’t think he’ll be able to do that to Vallejos.

I think eventually Vallejos will get to the chin of Choi, and once he does I don’t see Choi surviving for long. Vallejos by KO is the pick.

Alexander Hernandez -185 vs Kurt Holobaugh +154

Fight goes the distance, I don’t care who wins. Hernandez’s last 4 fights, and Holobaugh’s last 2 fights have gone the distance, and these guys seem to get tired pretty quick so after the first round, I don’t see where the finish comes from.

Both guys will throw punches, but eventually they’ll clinch to conserve energy so I wouldn’t be surprised to see long stretches of wrestling and fighting for position.

Hernandez has pretty bad striking defense, but he’s tough as nails so while he’ll get touched, I don’t think he goes down.

There’s good value on Holobaugh as a dog becasue Hernandez gets hit a lot in every fight, but for betting purposes I’ll just stick with taking the fight to go the distance.

Da’mon Blackshear -360 vs Cody Gibson +285

I don’t think Gibson has a high celing as he can beat guys like Annheliger and Kelleher, but he lost to Katona and Miles Johns so he just can’t get over the hump.

Gibson showed his ground game abilities against Annheliger, but he couldn’t get the finish, and Blackshear is really good on the ground so I see Gibson not being able to implement his game plan on the ground.

Blackshear has shown weakness on the feet so Gibson could find success striking, but I think eventually Blackshear gets this to the ground where he’ll work for the submission and ground and pound.

I think Gibosn can make this closer than the line would suggest, but Blackshear will be the pick, but I won’t be betting on it.

Diyar Nurgozhay -298 vs Brendson Ribeiro +240

I wouldn’t expect an exciting fight here. Nurgozhay has good power, but doesn’t throw a lot of volume, and even though he won on CS, it wasn’t an impressive performance, and his cardio was looking shaky in the second round.

He’s not your typical Dagestani as he doesn’t wrestle, he primarily strikes, but he’ll need more volume in the UFC.

Ribeiro isn’t exactly an ironman, but after going 9 fights in a row that ended before the third, he went to distance his last 2 fights, albeit against some bad fighters.

I think Nurgozhay is going to look slow, and I think Ribeiro can have some success striking, and with low volume strikers with bad cardio, anything is possible if it goes to the judges. Ribeiro at +240 is a solid underdog look.

Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos -180 vs Chidi Njokuani +150

I like this fight to go the distance. Both guys can go 3 rounds, but they get tired fairly quick, and Chidi has made his last 2 fights really boring, and up against the fecne for most of it.

I think Santos will have the early advantage with power, but this fight really comes down to who gets more tired, and that’s a tough one to figure out. I’ll lean Santos to squeak out a close fight, but the only way I’ll be this is to take it to go the distance.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Marvin Vettori vs Roman Dolidze

I can’t think of a main event I’ve been less interested in than this one. Neither of these guys is exciting, and Vettori has been to decision in 14 out of his last 15 fights, and that’s the only way I’ll be playing this.

Dolidze’s only finish in his last 4 fights was a Kevin Holland injury, and I think we just see a lot of wrestling and clinch against the fence.

If they’re standing and striking, I don’t think either guy has a huge advantage, but we haven’t seen Vettori in almost 2 years so I don’t know what we’re going to get from him. I lean Dolidze at the underdog price, but the play in this one is taking it to go the distance.

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