Denver Nuggets vs Milwaukee Bucks Picks and Odds Nov 26
Denver Nuggets vs Milwaukee Bucks Betting Preview
WagerTalk NBA handicapper Andy Lang offers his Denver Nuggets vs Milwaukee Bucks betting preview for Friday, November 26. At the time of posting, the Bucks have opened as a 3.5-point road favorite in Denver, with the total sitting at 214 points.
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Denver Nuggets vs Milwaukee Bucks Predictions
- Denver Nuggets +3.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks
- Total: 214 Points
Classic case of two teams going in the opposite direction as the Bucks have won five straight all by seven or more points, and the Nuggets have lost five straight all by six or more points. I can point to the absence of Jokic, but the first two losses of their losing streak were with him in the lineup, and they lost to Dallas and Philly. The last two games have been bad performances losing to the Suns by 29, and the Trailblazers by 19.
The Nuggets are getting hurt (literally and figuratively) as Jokic is banged up, Will Barton is struggling with a back issue, and Michael Porter is out indefinitely with a back issue (and that’s a massive short term and long term issue for Denver). Meanwhile, the Bucks are getting healthier as Middleton and Holiday are back and performing well and we can see how dominant they are fully healthy.
The Bucks winning streak is impressive for sure, anytime you can win five in a row is nice, but the competition was not great as they beat the Lakers with no Lebron, OKC, ORL twice and Detroit. They took care of business as they should have, and what I like about them when they are at full strength is their defense. They’ve held three out of four teams to 93 points or fewer and they are 14-5 to the under this season, and the unders are mostly due to their 4th quarters. They are 13-6 to the first quarter overs, but 13-5 to the fourth quarter unders so their games have a real pattern of starting off with a lot of points, and then slowing down as the game goes on.
For Denver, they went on a five game winning streak then followed it up with a five game losing streak, and they are 4-1 to the over in those five losses, due mostly to the other team scoring a lot of points as they’ve given up 111 or more in four out of five.
Looking at season ATS and Totals records for Denver is not something I would recommend due to the inconsistency of the lineups. With Jokic and MPJ out they really struggle with depth. Last game against Portland being a perfect example as only seven buys played 20 or more minutes. Adding in Jokic will help, but right now he is unavailable. He is in the top tier of players who’s absence most affects his team.
We will have to see if Jokic plays in order to know what the play is, but I’m going to be looking to the UNDER regardless. This full strength Bucks team can defend the perimeter or the inside and Denver is struggling mightily as they have dropped to 20th in offensive rating in the league.
Jokic will help, but him and Giannis have played against each other 11 times and Giannis has done fairly well “holding” Jokic to 21.9 its and 9.8 rebounds. Giannis can focus on Joker and allow Middleton and Holiday to disrupt everything else, and Portis will be nice support inside. If Milwaukee gets the lead, they slow the pace as evident by their 4Q under record. I’ll look for the total to be around 210-212 with Jokic, and that should be good enough to warrant a play on the under.
OFFICIAL PLAY: UNDER 214
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