Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat Picks and Odds Dec 3
Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat Betting Preview
WagerTalk NBA handicapper Andy Lang offers his Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat betting preview for Friday, December 3. At the time of posting, the Pacers are holding steady as a 5.5-point home favorite over the visiting Heat, with the total sitting at 207 points.
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Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat Predictions
- Indiana Pacers -5.5 vs Miami Heat
- Total: 207 Points
- The Miami Heat are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games.
The 13-9 Miami Heat travel to Indiana to face the 9-15 Pacers at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The Heat are coming off a 111-85 home loss to Cleveland, as the Cavaliers snapped a 20 game losing streak in South Beach. The Pacers are also coming off a home loss to the Atlanta Hawks 114-111. In the first meeting between these two teams Indiana prevailed at home in overtime 102-91. Tyler Herro led all scorers in that game with 30 points of the bench.
The Indiana Pacers are on a 3 game losing streak and sit 3.5 games away from a playoff spot. On the season Indiana is mediocre in both offensive and defensive scoring as they rank 14th and 15th respectively. This roster does have plenty of talent between Malcolm Brogdon who leads the team in scoring and assists, Domantas Sabonis who leads the team in rebounding and Myles Turner.
The Pacers also added Chris Duarte who is in rookie of the year discussions with averages of 13 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists per game. T.J. Warren has missed the entirety of the season and now the Pacers will also be without T.J. McConnell who will miss time with a wrist injury. Head coach Rick Carlisle said this will open the door for Brad Wanamaker to take on a bigger role, however as a Celtics fan I know this isn’t a good thing. Based on how talented the roster is Indiana should have a better record, but they still haven’t been able to string together more than two wins this season.
Injured Miami Heat players not traveling to Indiana with the team is the story of this game. We knew the Heat would be without Bam Adebayo as he will miss the next 6 weeks after right thumb surgery. Markieff Morris hasn’t returned since hurting his neck after being blindsided by Nikola Jokic. And now Jimmy Butler is also out with a tailbone injury.
These injuries are going to show us what the rest of this team is made of, considering they are now missing their two top players. The Heat defense ranks highly as they only allow 103.6 points a game, good for 4th least in the association. They are also 9th in offensive rating, however there is only so much you can take from these numbers based on the injuries they are dealing with.
Last time these teams met they combined for only 193 points and that was with a full complement of Heat players. Both teams rank bottom third in pace of play and these teams are quite familiar with each other. The last 5 times the Heat played in Indiana the game went under the total. I’m going to count on Erik Spoelstra to try and get the job done with defense as that is the identity of his team.
Our official play on this game will be under 207. Obviously based on the uncertainty of things we don’t have any player prop lines. Check back in the morning to make sure the numbers aren’t to high, but I would look to Tyler Herro over in points. After all, he did score 30 points in his last game against Indiana and that was when Miami was at full strength. Last game his points prop was set at 17.5. I would be comfortable with anything under 20 as he will be relied on to score much more than usual.
Official Play: UNDER 207 Points
Player Prop Lean: Tyler Herro Over points(lower than 20)
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Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat Analysis from The GoldSheet
Miami might have an excuse for its two-game losing streak, as Jimmy Butler has missed both of those games due to a bruised tailbone. Without Butler, the Heat posted perhaps its worst defensive effort of the season in the Monday loss tot he Nuggets before getting throttled 111-185, at home, no less, by the resurgent Cavs. So, maybe it’s a good idea to go out on the road, where Miami has won four of its last six, though Erik Spoelstra now dealing with an injured Butler.
This is an important homestand for Indy, with six games at what they now call Gainbridge Fieldhouse, but losing narrowly at home to the Hawks on Wednesday in the first outing, though Rick Carlisle has a mostly-healthy lineup at his disposal. These teams went OT on this floor back on Oct. 23 when Indy pulled clear in extra time for a 116-105 win, a night in which neither team shot 40% from the floor.
The Pacers’ problem has been close games, losing far more of those than winning and now 3-11 in games in which the scoreline was within five points in the last five minutes. But if Miami is without Butler (as seems to be the case) for tonight, not sure the Heat stay that close.
Friday’s NBA Stat Sheet
Each day, WagerTalk handicapper Ralph Michaels puts together his NBA Stat Sheet, which offers a head-to-head comparison for how teams are performing in a number of key areas heading into a game. Click here to download Friday’s sheet, with notes on tonight’s Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat contest.
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