LA Lakers vs Miami Heat Picks and Odds Nov 10
LA Lakers vs Miami Heat Betting Preview
WagerTalk NBA handicapper Tony Finn offers his LA Lakers vs Miami Heat betting preview for Wednesday, November 10. At the time of posting, the Heat are holding steady as a 5-point road favorite in Los Angeles with the total sitting at 215.5 points.
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LA Lakers vs Miami Heat Predictions
- Los Angeles Lakers +5 vs Miami Heat
- Total: 215.5 Points
- The Lakers are 0-6 against the spread in their last six games vs. opponent with a winning record.
- The Heat are 5-0 against the spread in their last five games vs. opponent with a winning record.
The Miami Heat and the Los Angeles Lakers meet for the first time this season. The meeting between Eastern and Western Conference foes is a rematch of the 2020 NBA Finals. The Lakers play the role of host at the STAPLES Center, with Los Angeles seeking a second straight victory for the first time his month. Miami has lost two of its last three games but is an Eastern Conference-best at 7-3 overall this season.
Tipoff is at 10:00pm ET in Los Angeles. Circa of Las Vegas opened with the visiting Heat as 4.5-point favorites, and the spread has held serve since the overnight lines were posted. The total in tonight’s west coast contest sits at 215.
In recent years, the Lakers have dominated this series, winning 10 of the last 15 meetings against Miami. However, that was then, and now is tonight.
The Miami Heat pose matchup issues for the Lakers at every position on the court. The offseason addition of veteran point and shooting guard Kyle Lowry gives the Heat a second quality backcourt player that can orchestrate the point position and completely change the game’s tempo. The pace of the Lowry-led Heat vs. that of Tyler Herro is vastly different. Expect Miami to walk, talk and play with a purpose tonight against the short-handed Lakers.
Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra is the architect of the most talented Heat roster since now-President Pat Riley was the franchises bench boss. Spoelstra’s troupe is slotted as the fourth-best offensive and fifth on the defensive end of the court heading into tonight’s contest.
Veteran all-everything Jimmy Butler leads the team in points (24.7), steals (2.3), and has dimed his teammates’ open looks (5.2 assists per game) at a crazy-good rate. Butler has also contributed on the boards with over six rebounds per game. There isn’t but a pair of players more important to their team than Butler when viewing most of the Player Efficiency Ratings in most major cyber-space NBA portals.
If the Sixth Man of the Year award were voted on today, my vote would go to Miami’s Tyler Herro. The maturation of the former-Kentucky Wildcat has seen a transformation of a player who was indecisive a season ago to uber-confident as the leader of the Heat’s second rotation. Herro is the general of a second unit that ranks 10th in the league in bench production. Herro is averaging career-high numbers in scoring (20.3 points), rebounds (5.4), and assists (4.0) per game.
The depth of Miami, the second unit of the Heat, is arguably a rotation that can compete with the current injury-riddled starting five of the Lakers. However, before pushing hard-earned paper across the sportsbook counter today, check on the status of center Bam Adebayo (questionable). Miami’s defensive rating without Adebayo as part of the Heat starting five is 112.1 points per 100 possessions.
The LA Lakers, led by LeBron James, was the usual suspect to win the Western Conference. However, the Lakers were a headstrong 6-5 at several Vegas and Offshore sportsbooks in July and August. Updated NBA futures find the Lakers behind the Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors to win the Pacific. Yet, LA is atop the Western Conference Title futures chart at many local and offshore shops.
Russell Westbrook and Anthony Davis haven’t found the cohesiveness to overcome the absence of King James. The latest updates on the Lakers undisputed leader finds James set to miss another 4-8 weeks. Westbrook’s reckless nature with little to no respect on the value of having possession of the ball has the Lakers heading south during a portion of the schedule that should have been contrary.
Depending on which strength of schedule, ratings you trust isn’t relevant. LA owned one of the softest-five schedules in the league to begin the season. With James in the starting five, the Lakers offense was scoring 99 points per 100 possessions. Without James, LA checks in with 89.2 points per 100 possessions. The Lakers are surrendering 108.8 points per 100 possessions without James being an active participant on game night.
Miami is scoring 112.5 points per 100 possessions and allowing 104.6 defensively. Tonight’s matchup between the visiting Heat and hometown Lakers requires that Anthony Davis be the best player on the floor. This requirement is not just the best Laker but the best player, period. This season Davis is shooting just over 12 percent from distance, and his free throw numbers are 10-plus percent less than last season.
On Monday night, Miami failed to outscore an injured Nuggets team as road favorites at Ball Arena in Denver. Tonight it will take an MVP effort and a reversal of his current form for Davis and the Lakers to earn a win at Staples. Expect a primetime performance from Butler and the Heat tonight at Staples.
The Knicks picked up a 15-point victory in Milwaukee last week. Can the Bucks return the favor at Madison Square Garden tonight? Join Joe, Tony, Kevin and Teddy for the NBA Tip-Off Show. https://t.co/gxws7SsvrL
— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) November 10, 2021
LA Lakers vs Miami Heat Analysis from The GoldSheet
We have no interest in backing a Laker side that has been underachieving in general and is playing without LeBron James. Not to mention Russell Westbrook has now added an inability to defend to his sketchy shooting, while Anthony Davis is playing with a thumb injury. Miami, conversely, is playing some serious defense (4th in the NBA) and surprisingly are 3rd in the league offensively as well. The Lakers are below average in efficiency and might still remember the Lakers taking the title at the expense of Jimmy Butler and his Heat teammates back in Covid-shortened 2020 championship in a six-game finals.
Miami is holding foes to just 41.6% overall, and 31.6% from beyond the arc, beating foes on the boards by an average of 49-41, and this season both Tyler Herro has made an offensive jump (20 ppg) as had Bam Adebayo (18.3 ppg, 12 rpg).
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