Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Picks and Predictions Nov 29
Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Betting Preview
WagerTalk NBA handicapper Andy Lang offers his Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets betting preview for Monday, November 29. At the time of posting, the Heat have opened as a 7.5-point home favorite over the visiting Nuggets, with the total sitting at 207.5 points.
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Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Predictions
- Miami Heat -7.5 vs Denver Nuggets
- Total: 207.5 Points
- Denver has won and covered the point spread in six of the last seven meetings in this series.
The 9-10 Denver Nuggets travel to Miami for a Monday night showdown with the 13-7 Heat at FTX Arena. This matchup features two teams heading in completely opposite directions. The Denver Nuggets lost their 6th straight game at home to Milwaukee Bucks 120-109 on Friday night. Meanwhile the Miami Heat have won 6 of their last 8 games after beating the Bulls 107-104 in Chicago on Saturday night.
We saw some fireworks the last time these two teams played, as there was an altercation between Nikola Jokic and Markieff Morris that ended in a one game suspension for Jokic and fines across the board. In the end the Nuggets prevailed 113-96 at home. It will be interesting to see if Jokic plays on Monday night as he’s missed the last 5 games with a wrist injury. Both Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro are also questionable, however neither has a major injury.
The Miami Heat have been on fire of late as they have exceled on both sides of the ball, but what really makes this team shine is their stingy defense. The Heat rank 2nd in scoring defense only allowing 102.5 points a game and are the 4th rated defense overall. Their defense is a lethal combination with their rebounding that ranks 10th overall in the association. In the pre-season Bam Adebayo mentioned that a goal of his was to win defensive player of the year and you can tell this entire team is focused on that side of the ball.
The Heat also have the ability to put up points as they rank 10th in the league scoring 108.7 points a game. Jimmy Butler leads the team in scoring with an average of 23.6 points a game while Adebayo leads the team in rebounds with 10 a game. If the season ended today Miami would be the two seed in the Eastern Conference and they seem poised to make a run in the post-season.
This seems like it could end up being a lost season for the Denver Nuggets as injuries have truly taken a toll. Coming into the season the Nuggs knew they would be without Jamal Murray as he tore his ACL in April. Then Michael Porter Jr. ended up on the shelf with a back injury on November 6th. Neither player has a timetable for a return. Next P.J. Dozier tore his ACL on November 23rd. Most recently Nikola Jokic has missed the last 5 games with a wrist injury. It’s been far too much to overcome and now Denver has lost 6 straight games.
Will Barton started off the season on fire, but he’s been swarmed upon as opposing defenses have been able to key in on him. The Nuggets rank 26th in scoring and only 28th in rebounding. They are kept alive by an defense that ranks first allowing only 100.1 points a game. If Denver doesn’t string together some wins soon they could end up not rushing their stars back and choosing to focus on next season.
The Miami Heat are 3rd best against the spread with a 13-7 record including 6-1 at home. Meanwhile the Nuggets have the 2nd worst ATS record at 7-12 and are horrible on the road with a 2-6 record. The Miami Heat are favored by 7.5 and the over/under is set at 203. Both teams have question marks, however it seems like Jokic will be out and the Heat will be at full strength.
The Heat are dominant at home and are in far better form while the Nuggets are reeling after losing 6 straight games. There is also a revenge angle for Miami between the combination of the Jokic/Morris altercation and getting embarrassed in Denver. A motivated Heat team playing this kind of defense at home is a scary prospect.
My official play will be the Miami Heat -7.5. I would also look to Bam Adebayo for a points+rebounds prop. He averages 18.4 points and 10 rebounds a game. Without Nikola Jokic in the lineup Adebayo will get whatever he wants in the paint. The point+rebound line should be set around 27.5 for Adebayo which I would be more than comfortable with, probably even go 28 5 assuming Jokic is out. For those who can’t get a points+rebounds line, take points+rebounds+assists line as it should only be 1 or 2 more.
Official Play: Miami Heat -7.5
Official Prop: Bam Adebayo OVER 27.5 Pts+Rebs
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Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Analysis from The GoldSheet
Oddly, these East-West teams are meeting for the 4th time in this calendar year, and Denver has won and covered the previous 3, and 6 of the past 7 in the series since early 2019. The Nuggets had no trouble with the Heat in the first meeting this season, winning 113-96, in a game made famous by Nikola Jokic being ejected for slamming his shoulder into Markieff Morris and dumping him to the floor. Forgotten might be that the Heat couldn’t handle Jokic, who had a 25-point, 15 rebound, 10 assist triple double before being ejected. Denver is riding a 6-game SU and spread losing streak heading into this matchup, and the Nuggets rank 29th in net differential and 27th in rebounding percentage in that span. That contrasts with the Heat winning 6 of 8 SU and covering 6 of last 9, while ranking 9th in net in those 9 games. Very had to figure Miami as anything but motivated to stick it to Jokic, and the numbers show this as hot vs. cold. Play Miami
NBA Tip-Off Show
After starting the year 9-4, the Nuggets have lost six-straight to drop below .500 this season. Can Denver snap that streak tonight in Miami? Join Joe Raineri, Andy Lang, Kevin Dolan and Tony Mejia for the NBA Tip-Off Show at 4:15pm ET / 1:15pm PT as we discuss tonight’s marquee games. Stay up-to-date on the latest NBA news, stats, analysis, and predictions with our panel of professional handicappers as they preview tonight’s NBA action, including this Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets clash, from a betting perspective.
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