Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors Picks and Predictions Nov 30
Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors Betting Preview
WagerTalk NBA handicapper Andy Lang offers his Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors betting preview for Tuesday, November 30. At the time of posting, the Suns have opened as a 2.5-point favorite over the Warriors, with the total sitting at 221 points.
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Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors Predictions
- Phoenix Suns -2.5 vs Golden State Warriors
- Total: 221 Points
- The under has cashed in eight of the last nine meetings between these two teams.
One of the best games in the NBA so far this year on Tuesday between the two best teams right now. Couple of staggering numbers on how good these two teams have been: Combined, they’ve won 23 games in a row, and their combined record this season is 35-5. Golden State has been better ATS with a 15-4-1 mark while Phoenix is 11-9 so far this year. It’s worth noting that Phoenix is 5-5 ATS at home and Golden State is 6-2 on the road. So we have some trends leaning in the favor of Golden State.
There are a few patterns I’ve noticed with Golden State and Steph Curry’s minutes that are worth paying attention to. He is only playing the first half of the first quarter and then being subbed out. If the team plays the rest of the quarter strong, he sits the rest of the first quarter and then the first part of the second quarter before finishing the rest of the half. If the team struggles in the first quarter, Steph comes in at the end of the first quarter to try and get a couple of baskets. Kerr discussed this exact scenario a couple of weeks ago, and since then they’ve been working it to perfection and that leaves a lot of minutes in the second half for a Steph onslaught.
The Chris Paul-Steph Curry rivalry has been intense and fun, and Steph has the 28-22 edge in head to head victories. Chris Paul isn’t the leading scorer for his team like in years past, but he’s still productive on the stat sheet averaging 14.5-4.1-10.1 this season, and obviously his leadership and ability to run the team throughout the game are worth more than maybe any other player besides Lebron. I don’t put a whole lot into the history of their rivalry, or the Suns-Warriors history as Golden State is a really different team this season.
These two teams are next to each other in almost every category as they are the #1 and #3 rated defenses in the NBA, they are #1 and #2 in field goal percentage, #2 and #3 in scoring, etc. There is only one area I can really see an advantage that one team has over the other and that’s defense on the perimeter. Golden State is #1 in the league in allowing just over 38 points to guards per game while Phoenix is allowing 43 points on the perimeter. I bring this up because Golden State has a deep bench and they have been involved in a lot of games with garbage time which I believe inflates the numbers a bit higher for Golden State’s defensive numbers.
When Draymond and Wiggins are dialed in they can make games so difficult for the opposition, and I think they will be able to disrupt the offense, and limit Devin Booker as much as he can be limited. On the flip side I see Golden States combination of Curry, Poole and Wiggins being a bit too much, and we’ve seen Ayton at times be a liability and the Warriors will definitely get him in the pick and roll. Last season the Warriors were a real problem for Ayton as he averaged 15.4 points on the season, but only 10.2 against Golden State and he averaged a full rebound less a game than his season average.
The last factor that is leading me to pick Golden State is just the Steph Curry big game factor this season. His biggest games this season have come against the best opponents in the biggest spots. Against the Clippers in the second game of the season he went for 45-10-1 in a win, against a streaking Atlanta team he went for 50-7-10 in a win, he just went for 33-5-6 against the Clippers again in a win, and in the showdown against Brooklyn he went for 37-7-5 in an 18 point demolition.
Both teams are rested and at full strength, but with the perimeter advantage for Golden State, the Steph Curry advantage and Golden State beating teams by a league leading margin of 13.7 and Phoenix only winning by 7.6 points margin, I have to go with Golden State in this matchup to cover the 2.5 and win straight up.
Official Play: Warriors +2.5 and Moneyline
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Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors Analysis from The GoldSheet
Phoenix riding a 16-game winning streak, but Golden State has won 7 straight and owns the league’s best record, so, yeah, this is a big game. This is the first of two big games, as the same two will meet in two days at the Chase Center in San Francisco. Interestingly, over the last 15 outings Golden State is statistically better than the Suns by a bit of a margin, allowing just over 98 points per 100 possessions on defense compared with the Suns at 102, and scoring just shy of 115 points on offense per 100 trips (Phoenix is at 113.4).
The Warriors had dominated the Suns prior to the Covid-shortened 2019-20 season, compiling an 18-game series winning streak before the Suns improved shortly after the acquisition of PG Chris Paul and the emergence of draft picks C Deandre Ayton and F Mikal Bridges to complement star G Devin Booker. The Warriors have managed to cover four of the last five against the Suns but are 3-5 straight-up in most recent meetings and the series has gone under 8-1 last nine.
Golden State HC Steve Kerr likely salivating at the prospect of owning the best record in the league even though star G Klay Thompson has been on the shelf along with young C James Wiseman (and both have been assigned to the G-League affiliate and will be ready soon…but not tonight).
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