2024 NFL Draft Preview: Top 10 Draft Pick Predictions, Bets and Odds

2024 NFL Draft Preview – Which Teams Will Draft Who?

NFL content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his 2024 NFL Draft preview specifically looking at who will be drafted in the top 10! Will any team surprise us with their pick? Which teams are looking to trade up or down? Read Ron’s top 10 draft picks preview below!

You get free picks from WagerTalk all season long!

2024 Football GoldSheet Newsletter Pre-Sale!

Early-bird pricing is now available for the 2024 Football GoldSheet newsletter. Take advantage of our best offer and lock in the 2024-25 Football GoldSheet newsletter at the lowest-available price, which will increase on the first of each month until the college football season kicks off in late-August.

Before You Read NFL Draft Preview… Get $15 FREE towards all expert picks!

2024 NFL Draft Betting Analysis

The NFL draft is just two weeks away. I’ve been busy, keeping track of every move made by all 32 NFL teams in free agency, using that information to carefully put together a needs board for each team. I’ve also researched over 350 draft eligible players, and am less than one week away from putting together a ranked order list for each position.

In addition to constantly writing about the NFL, I’ve thus far been a part of three podcasts discussing my takes on teams, players, and the draft itself.

In late February I wrote an article for Wager Talk about the importance of the combine and how I use the data which comes from the combine. Much has happened since then and it’s time to provide a draft update.

In this document, I will give you my latest feelings about how the first ten picks might play out. Obviously, things could change as we get closer to the draft, and there’s still work left for me to do, such as gather more complete Intel on each team’s intentions, and finalize my top tier ratings for each position. Here’s the latest, with some occasional handicapping nuggets thrown in along the way.

2024 NFL Draft Top 10 Draft Predictions

1. Chicago Bears: This pick is almost certainly going to be for QB Caleb Williams.  

2. Washington Commanders: QB’s drive the league, so look for this pick to be either Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels.  While many people are reporting that Daniels is the guy, I can confirm that the decision has NOT yet been made.  I expect Washington to finalize their intentions by the start of next week (4/15).  One indicator will be any sudden shift in the odds movement between Maye going here or Daniels.  Maye is currently +145 on Draft Kings.  I have not taken a position on this one.

3. New England Patriots: New England WILL get plenty of trade offers no matter which QB (Maye or Daniels) is still available.  I would trade with the Vikings if they offered picks 11, 23 a ’25 1^st round pick, and a current player (perhaps one of their underachieving ‘22 draft choices (Cine or Booth) from their secondary.  Then, as GM I would take WR Odunze if he’s there at pick 11 (35% shot) or go OT or edge rusher, using pick 23 for QB Penix.  If you believe a trade is possible, do NOT rule out the NYG moving from six to three, which would keep New England in contention to get a top two WR or OT Joe Alt.

4. Arizona Cardinals: Arizona traded back last year, but with eleven picks in this draft, and six of the top 90, there’s no need to do that now.  I think they run to the window to take WR Marvin Harrison, and I would consider draft props with this in mind.

5. Los Angeles Chargers: Jim Harbaugh doesn’t seem like a guy who would prioritize WR, but that’s the crying need.  Both Harrison and Nabors are Jamar Chase like talents.  That’s the way I would go.  They will get trade offers, and YES, I would strongly consider an offer from Minnesota if it involved picks 11 and 23.  What do I think they will do?  I think this is either OT Joe Alt or a trade back, and a pick for right tackle.  LA traded the least of all 32 teams under GM Telesco, but I expect this draft to be unconventional, and include several picks in the trenches (OL and DL), as Harbaugh reshapes the roster to his specifications.  

6. New York Giants: I generally like their GM and Head Coach, and that’s why I think they’ve actually overachieved these past two seasons.  Their record based on Pythagorean theorem principles could have been at least two games worse in each of the past two seasons.  They have to restock the offensive side of the ball, and have to upgrade the pass rush.  Will they go QB day 1 or 2? I personally would NOT use this pick to take QB McCarthy, or trade up for him. This again looks like a good landing spot for either WR Malik Nabors or OT Joe Alt.  The other choice is to move up and get QB Maye or Daniels.  Daniel Jones is on a team-friendly contract and he can easily be cut before 2025.  

7. Tennessee Titans: Protecting their young QB should be a priority, but the curveball could be TE Bowers, who could go anywhere from pick 5 to pick 20.  There’s also some chatter about going WR.  JOE ALT OPENED AROUND -175 TO BE TAKEN NO LATER THAN THE 7^TH PICK IN THIS DRAFT.  This is a play that I personally made, and would recommend up to -225.

8. Atlanta Falcons: I’ve said this for the LAST DECADE, edge rusher is the only way to go.  ADAPT OR DIE!  Now that I’ve said my peace, it looks like Atlanta is looking fairly heavily into CB with this pick.  As of 4/10, I do NOT have the internal Intel to say which way they will go, but “think” I can get it because new regimes can tip their hand in a few different ways.  Meanwhile, IF they do the right thing and go edge, do NOT be surprised if it’s not the player everyone is mocking to them (Dallas Turner).  DL Laiatu Latu (+600) has value that should be strongly considered.  

9. Chicago Bears: The Bears have only four picks in this draft.  Their IDEAL scenario should be that QB McCarthy remains on the board, and if not that, perhaps someone would trade up for WR Odunze, one of the top OL, or an edge rusher.  Their best hope is that Minnesota, Denver and even Vegas enter a bidding war for McCarthy and a rich deal is struck.  I think it’s 60-40 they trade back from this pick, moving no down further than pick 14.  If they stay, it’s Odunze, OL or edge.  Even at pick 11, these same options could be available.  Any wagers made as to who the 9^th pick in this draft will be should have multiple teams in mind.  

10. New York Jets: I’ve documented how the trade back from 13 to 15 last year cost them one of the coveted top four OL in the ’23 draft. Despite some upgrades in free agency, I’d still strongly consider OL in this spot, but if they are not internally pleased with their 1^st round pick from ’23 (LB/edge rusher McDonald) they could take another pass rusher or even go WR.  One of the biggest mysteries to me is where does TE Brock Bowers go in this draft?  I do NOT have a perfect spot for him, but feature TE is one of my primary needs for this team and Aaron Rodgers would like this pick.  Bowers is the ONLY person I would consider other than going OL in this spot.

2024 NFL Draft Bonus Section

Here’s a look at what Minnesota might be thinking with pick 11 (and 23), plus a few other bullet point scenarios that I’m watching very closely.

11. Minnesota Vikings: Now that Cousins is gone, QB is the obvious need, followed by cover CB and edge rusher.  It seems that the Vikings made the trade with Houston (obtaining pick 23) to do more than just fill CB and edge rusher. 

REMEMBER THIS: QB hype is huge every draft season.  Maybe, like Anthony Richardson (4, Indy) the hype is real and McCarthy goes early.  Or maybe, this is Will Levis (2^nd round), and McCarthy’s range is still 1^st round, but available at pick #9. 

This GM is not afraid to trade inside the Division.  Going OL or edge at 11 and QB Penix at 23 is my preferred move.  Penix is polarizing. 

With his stat sheet and arm strength, he can be a 1^st round pick for a team such as THIS ONE, with a serviceable OL and a stout TE.  With his injury history, he could also slip to the 2^nd round, which is far more typical based on past history.

Bottom Line:  I do NOT expect the Vikings to stay put at 11 and 23, and as of this writing, I have them taking either McCarthy at pick 9 or 11, or Penix, at pick 23 or in a trade up from pick 23.

2024 NFL Draft – Closing Notes

• As of 4/10. I’m hearing that Seattle is interested in going OG or center with pick 18.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they trade back a bit before making the pick.

• Pittsburgh has their eyes on two different OL.  They are more transparent than others in the draft process, so I will have more Intel closer to the draft.

• Dallas usually fills behind free agency losses.  Two things are highly possible.
  • One: They go OL with this pick.
  • They get jumped by another team (Tampa, Arizona, etc.) who know 100% of their intentions.

• Current Draft Propositions I’m tracking (Remember to shop for the best prices, which can vary widely)
  • The Jets drafting a TE with their 1^st pick is +200
  • If you think Buffalo will NOT take a WR with their 1^st pick then value exists everywhere
  • Cincinnati going DL/edge with their 1^st pick is +425/430
  • Both OL (+800) and DL (+650) carry value for Jacksonville as of 4/10
  • For now, I do favor OL, both favorites for Vegas (+140) and the Chargers (-120)
  • Finally, New Orleans carries value at edge/DL (+380) and at WR (+900)

Get GoldSheet for Football Betting Tips All Year and Best Bets Today

The Football GoldSheet newsletter is now available for purchase at WagerTalk! From Week 0, in college football all the way through the Super Bowl, get expert analysis, box score recaps, power ratings and much more from the country’s oldest and most popular sports betting newsletter.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen NFL

WagerTalk’s live NFL odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the run spreads, totals and betting percentages for all NFL games!

**************************************************

Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?

• Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
• Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
• Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.

Make sure to bookmark all the above!