Best AFC West Predictions For 2023 Season – NFL Betting Preview & Top Picks
2023 AFC West Season Predictions by Bryan Power
Will the Kansas City Chiefs dominate once again or will a surprise team in the AFC West win the division in the 2023 NFL season. WagerTalk NFL betting expert Bryan Power provides his AFC West Division betting prediction before the season kicks off September 7th!
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Kansas City Chiefs AFC West Betting Preview
Biggest favorite to win their division (-165) with a win total of 11.5 and it’s hard to disagree with that when you consider they’ve won the AFC West seven years in a row with 12+ wins in six of those seasons.
Yet I really don’t like the idea of laying that much juice on a division future and almost never like to recommend betting Over on a double digit season-win total. Keep in mind the Chiefs were actually +175 to win the division last year, so it’s a pretty big change.
Now Andy Reid and company are likely to be favored in every game this season despite facing the 5th toughest schedule and the three unique opponents (relative to the rest of the AFC West) are: Bengals, Eagles and Jaguars.
Interesting that while they won 14 regular season games, they only led at the half 10 times. So my instinct says they won’t win quite as many games this year, but I certainly don’t want to bet an Under on the season win total nor pick someone else to win this division.
Especially when you consider that Patrick Mahomes is 27-3 SU in division games (including 11-0 vs. Denver) since taking over as the starter. The Chiefs were one of only two teams (49ers) to have a perfect division record in 2022.
Los Angeles Chargers AFC West Betting Preview
Seems like respected money likes the Over on 9.5 wins here, but I’m not so sure. I do like Kellen Moore taking over as the OC as he’s known for being pretty aggressive, which was the opposite of what we saw from the Chargers’ offense in the second half meltdown in last year’s Wild Card loss to Jacksonville. I also like QB Justin Herbert.
The Chargers have improved their win total in three consecutive seasons including a 19-15 record under Brandon Staley, but here’s a trend for you: since 2002, only ONE team has improved its season win total four straight years. The other 16 that did it three straight seasons saw an average decline of 4.5 wins.
Note the Chargers were -0.6 in yards per play differential last season as well and that was with an offense that gained over 6,000 yards. Considering the Chiefs are always good and the Broncos and/or Raiders may be improved, I’m thinking Under 9.5 wins.
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Denver Broncos AFC West Betting Preview
It’s a massive coaching upgrade with Sean Payton replacing the ill-prepared Nathanial Hackett. Really, it’s been a slew of bad coaches here with Vance Joseph and Vic Fangio preceding Hackett. But what does Russell Wilson have left in the tank?
No team had worse injury luck last season than did the Broncos. Typically, unless you’re the Chargers, injury luck can greatly vary season to season.
Denver had a top 10 defense in EPA per play, so that wasn’t a problem, but the offense scored a league low 16.9 PPG. Payton has never had an offense finish with fewer than 21 PPG and never finished a season with fewer than 7 wins.
So the Broncos will be better, but not sure if I like them to go Over 8.5 wins. I know they had nine one-score losses including five by a field goal or less, but they also had just one win by more than one score.
They were projected for 10 wins last year, which seems crazy in hindsight but the belief in Wilson was a lot stronger last summer. I saw our friends at the Goldsheet predict a second place finish in the division and at +270 odds, I think I like that better than playing Over 8.5 at -110.
Las Vegas Raiders AFC West Betting Preview
Only favored in two games, questions over who will be the starter in Week 1 (though it looks like Jimmy G is going to be ready) and I don’t particularly like the head coach!
I think we may see some improvement – at least in terms of wins – out of the old Silver and Black this season.
Now, bettors aren’t buying it as Under 7.5 wins is juiced all the way to -190 at some places, so I might wait, let this hit 7 and then play Over. I think this offense could surprise.
The key is the defense, which was really bad last year, must improve. One negative is that there are three sets of back to back road games on the schedule and every time the second one is in the Eastern Time Zone (where the Raiders typically struggle).
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NFL Divisional Betting Tips By Teddy Covers
In this installment, Teddy breaks down betting angles covering the AFC West Division and how the Falcons could fare this season! He runs through each team’s schedule providing betting trends and angles to take advantage of. Listen now!
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