Buffalo Bills vs Carolina Panthers Picks and Odds Week 15
Buffalo Bills vs Carolina Panthers Betting Preview
WagerTalk NFL handicapper Andy Lang offers his Buffalo Bills vs Carolina Panthers NFL Week 15 betting preview. At the time of posting, the Bills have climbed to a 13.5-point home favorite over the visiting Panthers, with the total sitting at 44 points.
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| NFL Week 15 | Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Point Spread: | Buffalo Bills -13.5 vs Carolina Panthers |
| Total: | 44 Points |
| Game Time: | 1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT on Sunday, December 19 |
| Stadium: | Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York |
| TV: | FOX |
Buffalo Bills vs Carolina Panthers Predictions
The 5-8 Carolina Panthers visit Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park to face the 7-6 Buffalo Bills on Sunday afternoon. The Panthers are coming off a 29-21 home loss against the Atlanta Falcons where they alternated between Cam Newton and JP Walker at quarterback. Meanwhile, the Bills fell just short of an amazing comeback as they lost 33-27 in overtime against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Both these teams are mirror images of each other in many different ways. First off, both had great starts to the season and have fallen off a cliff recently. Buffalo was in great position at 5-2 early on, only to ultimately go 2-4 on their last 6 games. Following a 3-0 start, Carolina has went 2-8 in their past 10 games.
The Panthers have the leagues best pass defense, only allowing 177.7 yards per game. The Bills are right behind them in the #2 slot with 179.5 passing yards allowed per game. The Bills get after the quarterback better than any team in the NFL as they pressure the QB 27.6% of the time. Second place in that category…. you guessed it, the Panthers pressure the quarterback on 26.8% of snaps. This game could very well come down to who puts more pressure on the quarterback and ultimately limits their passing yardage.
If that’s the case, you would have to feel more comfortable with Josh Allen than Cam Newton or JP Walker. Last week Allen had 417 total yards and three touchdowns, however he was seen leaving the stadium in a walking boot and is listed as day-to-day. Allen gained 90 yards on the ground against Tampa, he’s the first Bills player to rush for that much yardage since Week 12 of the 2019 season.
Another parallel, Allen has 29 rushing touchdowns, the only quarterback with more in his first four seasons is Cam Newton. However the Cam Newton experiment has failed, last week he turned the ball over twice and was benched in favor of Walker. Regardless of who starts or if they split time, there isn’t a scenario that inspires much confidence. Head coach Matt Rhule does insist that Cam Newton is his starter.
The Bills defense has been gashed on the ground in three of past fours games, including giving up 147 rushing yards last week against the Bucs. The Panthers rank below average in rush defense, as they give up over 115 yards per game. However neither team can take full advantage of this as neither runs the ball effectively.
Carolina’s last three road games were at Arizona, Miami and under the dome in Atlanta. A December game in Buffalo could be a shock to the Panthers system, as it’s going to be a balmy 30 degrees and cloudy.
The Bills are favored by 13.5 points and the total is 44 points. There isn’t much to be gleaned from either teams against the spread or over/under ATS records, as both are slightly below .500. We will need to look in a more unique direction. The Bills are ultimate front runners as they like to beat up on the lesser than teams, while struggling against stiffer competition. They have averaged 38 points in their wins and only 17.5 points in their losses.
Being favored by 13 points suggests a Bills victory in this game. The Panthers defense looks dead tired and have struggled down the stretch. They have lost their last 3 games, giving up 29 points to Atlanta, 33 points to Miami and 27 points to Washington. The Bills team total opened at a reasonable 27.5 points and remains around 28 with no juice on the over. Based on the magnitude of the game I’m fully expecting Josh Allen play through injury. We will make the Bills team total over 27.5/28 points our official play, as they desperately need to right the ship.
Official Play: Buffalo Bills Team Total Over 27.5/28
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Buffalo Bills vs Carolina Panthers Analysis from GoldSheet
While many of those on ESPN and the NFL Network are going to spend the week wondering how the Bills (now 7-6) have put themselves in position to miss the AFC playoffs after being one game from the Super Bowl last January, we’re hard-pressed to remember anything going as off-script as the Panthers season since Apollo 13. Since Cam was placed (forced?) Into the lineup, Carolina is 0-3, making the Panthers winless in the last 11 starts made by Newton dating to the end of his previous Charlotte assignment in 2019.
As it looks to be the past-sell-by-date Cam once more, we highly doubt the Panthers take advantage of some leaks in the Buffalo D (especially if still without run-stuffer DT Star Lotulelei). Caution, perhaps, as with Josh Allen leaving last week’s brave comeback attempt at Tampa Bay in a walking boot, it might be Mitch Trubisky Time at QB for the Bills. And with losses in 5 of 8, we’re a bit reluctant to lay a big price right now with Buffalo. But we’ll be kicking ourselves if not recommending against the Cam Panthers while we still have the chance, as only a switch back to Walker by Rhule would make us reconsider.
NFL Week 15 Opening Line Report
The push toward the 2021-22 NFL playoffs is officially on. In this week’s edition of The Opening Line Report, Teddy Covers and Drew Martin break down the Week 15 betting market from three key angles: a) What were the look-ahead lines from last week; b) Where did the lines re-open after Sunday’s action; c) Where the lines are heading before kickoff this week. Join Teddy and Drew every Monday for this informative NFL betting exercise. We begin the Buffalo Bills vs Carolina Panthers discussion at the 16:40 timestamp.
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines and betting percentages for all of the NFL Week 15 games, including this Buffalo Bills vs Carolina Panthers showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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