Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots NFL Week 13 Preview

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Betting Preview

WagerTalk NFL handicapper Andy Lang offers his Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Monday Night Football betting preview. At the time of posting, the Bills are bouncing back-and-forth between a 2.5 and 3-point home favorite over the visiting Patriots, with the total dropping to 41 points.

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Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Predictions

Buffalo Bills -3 vs New England Patriots
Total: 41 Points
The Patriots have covered the point spread in six of their last seven trips to Orchard Park.
New England is 19-8 against the spread as an underdog since 2010, including 2-1 this season.

This week’s Monday Night Football game will be an epic AFC East showdown between the 8-4 New England Patriots and 7-4 Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. Buffalo won both head-to-head matchups last season, winning 24-21 at home and 38-9 at Gillette Stadium.

The Patriots come in as the hottest team in the league after beating the Tennessee Titans 36-13 for their 6th straight win. The Bills are coming off a dominating 31-6 win of their own over the Saints on Thanksgiving night in New Orleans. This game features two of the highest rated defensive units in the league, ranking #1 and #2 in points allowed. They will meet again in New England less than three weeks after this game and if either is able to win both games it should be enough for the division crown.

The Buffalo Bills have alternated wins and losses in their last 6 games after winning four straight. Offensively the Bills are led by Josh Allen who is able to get the job done with his arm and his legs. Allen has already thrown for over 3000 yards with 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while adding 383 yards and an additional 3 touchdowns on the ground. Buffalo is a pass heavy offense overall as they have only run the the ball 285 times while opting to throw 418 passes.

The Bills always seem to have a stout defense and this season is no exception. In terms of yardage, the Bills allow the least per game with only 275.2 while ranking 2nd in rushing yards allowed and 5th in passing yards allowed. They also rank 2nd in points allowed with only 16.5 per game. However, the Bills defense had a major set back on Thanksgiving as top cornerback Tre’Davious White suffered a torn ACL that will keep him out for the season.

The New England Patriots seemingly have come out of nowhere as most thought this would be a rebuilding year with a rookie quarterback. However Mac Jones has settled in quite nicely with a solid rushing attack and a defense that seems to be on a mission. If Mac Jones continues at this pace he could be in line for rookie of the year considerations, especially if he’s able to lead his team into the post-season. Jones has thrown for 2,850 yards with 16 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. The rushing attack is a two-headed monster of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson who seem to alternate having huge statistical outputs. In true Patriot fashion Jones doesn’t focus on one stud receiver, preferring to hit whoever is open or has a soft matchup.

The Patriot defense has been otherworldly this season as they rank first in points allowed with only 15.8 a game. Some thought the defense would be in shambles when they lost elite cornerback Stephon Gilmore, however in typical Belichick fashion it has been next man up will get the job done. This defense also has a nose for the ball as they are tied for 2nd in takeaways. During the 6 game win streak the Patriots have dominated, winning 5 of the 6 games by 18 points or more.

Both teams against the spread records are almost mirror images of their straight up records as New England is 8-4 while Buffalo is 6-4-1. While both teams feature amazing defenses, both also hover around .500 when it comes to over/under ATS. The Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 while the Bills are 13-6-1 in their last 20 against the spread. We obviously have two of the top defenses in the league, you name a statistical category and both will be top five. Buffalo is favored by 3 in this game with the total dropping to 41 after opening at 44.

These teams are very familiar with each other, so I’m fully expecting a rock fight with both teams looking to avoid mistakes. Everyone knows Bill Belichick likes to take away the opposing teams top weapon. I think Belichick will focus on Josh Allen, keeping him in the pocket and ultimately making him uncomfortable and forcing him into mistakes. The loss of Tre’Davious White is huge for Buffalo and it may be just enough for the Patriots to find a weakness to exploit. I will take the free field goal and roll with the Patriots +3.

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Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Analysis from The GoldSheet

Six wins and covers on the spin for New England, done in various fashions, including last week when the rapidly-maturing Bama rookie QB Mac Jones and the offense took the reins against the Titans, with nine of the first ten drives resulting in either a field goal or a TD, has the Patriots in position to wrest back control of an AFC East race that they temporarily lended to the Bills a year ago.

Now, it’s Buffalo doing the chasing, and even though these teams will play twice in a 13-day span to likely determine the East winner, we are not too interested in picking the spot where New England cools down. After all, the Bills have hardly been a paradigm of consistently lately, alternating wins and losses since mid-October, and they lack the sort of chop-busting infantry that Tennessee used to gouge out considerable rushing yardage vs. Belichick’s defense last week (although the Titans would eventually lose contact in the 3rd Q).

As Buffalo hasn’t been able to stack wins together in almost two months and is now apparently proceeding (for the short-term, at least) minus star CB Tre White, who effectively shuts off passing lanes in his half of the field, we’re hardly ready to trust the Bills, moreover considering Belichick’s past successes at Orchard Park (6-1 vs. line last seven, even with Cam Newton at QB last year), and extended success in rare underdog roles (19-8 since 2010).

Bet On It | Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Preview

Join Kelly Stewart, Marco D’Angelo and Gianni the Greek for Bet On It at 3pm ET / 12pm PT on Monday afternoon as we break down tonight’s Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots showdown. The Vegas trio looks back at yesterday’s NFL action before previewing tonight’s AFC East Clash from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

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