Dolphins vs Chiefs Predictions, Picks and Best Bets

Dolphins vs Chiefs Prediction: The Betting Analysis

NFL content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his expert betting prediction and picks for Dolphins vs Chiefs NFL Wildcard matchup kicking off on January 13th at 8:00pm ET. What are they looking at from a betting perspective? Get his NFL Wildcard betting analysis now!

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Dolphins vs Chiefs Predictions: Best Betting Odds & Game Info

Saturday, January 13	NFL Wildcard Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Spread:	Miami Dolphins +4 vs Kansas City Chiefs
Total:	43.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Game Time:	8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT
Stadium:	GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO
TV:	Peacock

Dolphins Strengths and Weaknesses

When WR’s Hill and Waddle are healthy this team is a nightmare to defend. They had a 1,411 total yardage advantage on their opponents.

The run defense started slowly, but now clearly resides in the upper half of the NFL. The defense recorded 56 sacks.

They allowed 67% through the air. Injuries are making things worse, and in week 18 (Buffalo) three more players on the defensive side of the ball were lost. The team is at far less than full strength.

Chiefs Strengths and Weaknesses

Even in a “down” season, QB Mahomes is elite. Defensive numbers were mostly top-notch across the board, and points vs. their defense were hard to come by. KC has 57 defensive sacks, and the OL allowed just 28.

WR drops were well documented. I don’t think it was a team-wide issue, but I can clearly point to two, maybe three of their WR’s that are liabilities when the ball comes their way.

Mahomes took more risks, leading to an extremely unusual turnover ratio of -11. It continues to be difficult for the Chiefs to stretch the field like in the old days.

Dolphins vs Chiefs Prediction: The PICK

I harped on KC’s unfair schedule so much during the last few weeks, both in articles on this site as well as on numerous podcasts, but KC essentially had a “bye week” to end 2023, being locked into the #3 seed.

Advantage Chiefs. Miami limps into this game, and as I’ve said, without WR Waddle, the whole pass game suffers big-time.

In early November, in Germany, KC took a 21-0 lead and held on to beat the Dolphins 21-14. My biggest takeaway was that TE Kelce was held to three receptions for just 14 yards.

He’s healthy now, and Miami may be without as many as five defensive starters. I did take KC -3 (-115) early.

Miami comes into this game after losing a rough divisional game, costing them the #2 seed and two defensive starters. I can’t ignore KC’s rest edge (player reset), and would give up to -4.

Lean: Chiefs -3 (Good Until -4)

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