Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Week 10 Picks and Odds

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Preview

WagerTalk NFL handicapper Andy Lang offers his Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Week 10 betting preview. At the time of posting, the Colts are a 10.5-point home favorite over their AFC South rivals, with the total sitting at 47.5 points.

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Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Predictions

• Indianapolis Colts -10.5 vs Jacksonville Jaguars
• Total: 47.5 Points
• Indianapolis has covered the spread in five of the Colts’ last six games. Coincidentally, the over is also 5-1 in the Colts’ last six games.
• The under is 6-2 in Jacksonville’s games this season.

The Colts are winners of three of four, and the Jaguars are winners of two out of three, but what a win it was upsetting the Buffalo Bills over the weekend in the stunner of the year. The Jaguars are what you would expect out of a rookie head coach and quarterback combo…inconsistent. A 9-6 win over a top 3 team in the league preceded by a 31-7 loss to the Seahawks with Geno Smith at quarterback preceded by a 23-20 win in London over the Dolphins. For the Jags, we know that Trevor Lawrence and James Robinson will play so the Jags get their full offense. The defensive performance was a bit unexpected as they held the Bills to 72 yards rushing and 264 yards passing, but it might not have been a complete surprise. They are the third best team in the league allowing only 3.8 yards a carry, and they are 19th in the league defending the pass. The point is the defense is playing better than the public perception.

Living here in Indianapolis, I follow the Colts more closely than most, and while the division looks out of reach, they’ve improved as the season has gone on, and if they can keep improving they can turn out to be a decent team, but they aren’t elite, and I think they’re being a bit overrated. They have won three out of four games, but those wins came against the Texans, 49ers and Jets. In fact, their four wins are over teams that have a combined eight wins. They blew golden opportunities against Baltimore and Tennessee which would have given them a six game win streak and would completely change the narrative of this team.

The interesting matchup in this game, and the matchup that will likely determine the ML and ATS winner is going to be Jonathan Taylor and the Colts running game against the Jags run defense. The last three games the Colts have turned it on and have rushed for 163.7 yards per game, and if that keeps up, expect the Colts to control the time of possession. I think the Jags will be tough to run on, and that puts the ball in Carson Wentz’s hands which can be scary for both teams. He’s been efficient recently and has two or more TD passes in six straight games and Pittman is coming on strong, so I see success for the Colts in the passing game. The Colts defense is getting healthy and Darious Leonard is a turnover forcing machine, and one thing that is forgotten about the Jags win over Buffalo is that their offense didn’t score a TD. They’ve scored 21 or fewer points in seven of eight games, and the Colts defense has been good when the games have been close, and that’s where I think the value is in betting this game.

The Colts have covered six straight first halves against the spread, and they’ve averaged just shy of 20 points per first half in their last three. Jacksonville is averaging 5.3 points in the first half the last three so I’ll take the Colts -6 in the first half. The Jaguars offense isn’t explosive enough to put up early points against Indy, but the Colts offense can attack with the run or pass, and the Colts coaching staff has done a nice job in putting together offensive game plans to start the game. I want to avoid the second half in this game as the Colts can have letdowns if they get ahead so I’ll stick with the first half -6.

Player Prop: Take a look at Dan Arnold over his receiving number. The Colts give up just over 60 yards a game to opposing tight ends, and Lawrence has been looking his way the last couple weeks. He’s had 60 and 68 yards the last two weeks, and 17 targets in those two games.

🏈Four of Baltimore’s six wins this season have come by 1, 2, 3 and overtime. Can the Ravens put together a convincing performance against Miami on Thursday night? @MejiaDinero @BumpSports and @DrewMartinBets offer their thoughts.#FinsUp | #RavensFlockhttps://t.co/GLQR3UD7S7

— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) November 10, 2021

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Analysis from The GoldSheet

The Colts hammered the Jets and took advantage of New York’s unfortunate QB situation last Thursday, but don’t make the mistake of dismissing their dominance as a product of their level of competition. For the fourth consecutive game, Indianapolis scored 30 or more points. Jonathan Taylor matched Edgerrin James’ franchise record with six straight games with a touchdown and over 100 yards from scrimmage. Despite his turnover issues costing the Colts in a tough loss to Tennessee, Carson Wentz has been incredibly productive and may get T.Y. Hilton back from concussion protocol to add to his arsenal this week. He’s already established chemistry with Michael Pittman Jr. as a No. 1 receiver and is spreading the ball around nicely.

Jacksonville shut down Josh Allen and pulled off a massive upset of the Bills to improve to 2-6 on the season under first-year head coach Urban Meyer. The Jaguars haven’t won a true road game since Dec. 15, 2019 and may again be without top RB James Robinson, who missed the win over Buffalo due to a foot injury. The Jags haven’t won consecutive games since October of ’19 and they’ll likely struggle with a team that benefits from being at home while also enjoying a couple of extra days of rest since they played last Thursday.

NFL Week 10 Opening Line Report

Teddy Covers and Drew Martin recap last week’s NFL action before breaking down the Week 10 betting market from three key angles: a) What were the look-ahead lines from last week; b) Where did the lines re-open after Sunday’s games; c) Where the lines are heading before kickoff this week. We cover the Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars game at the 8:10 timestamp.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the NFL Week 10 moneylines, point spreads, first half lines and betting percentages, including this Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars showdown, from your desktop or phone.

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