Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots Picks and Odds Week 15

Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots Betting Preview

WagerTalk NFL handicapper Andy Lang offers his Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots NFL Week 15 betting preview. At the time of posting, the Colts have climbed to a 2.5-point home favorite over the visiting Patriots, with the total sitting at 45.5 points.

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NFL Week 15	Betting Notes
Point Spread	Indianapolis Colts -2.5 vs New England Patriots
Total	45.5 Points
Game Time	8:15pm ET / 5:15pm PT on Saturday, December 18
Stadium	Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis
TV	NFL Network

Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots Predictions

The New England Patriots are onto Indianapolis to face the Colts on Saturday night at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Patriots are winners of 7 straight games after they held on for a 14-10 victory in the brutal Buffalo weather conditions. New Englands 9-4 record currently gives them a two game lead in the AFC East. The Indianapolis Colts are 7-6 after a 31-0 rout of the Houston Texans. The Colts sit at 2nd place in the AFC South, two games behind the Tennessee Titans.

These teams had some amazing head-to-head matchups in the early 2000’s that included Tom Brady vs Peyton Manning, Bill Belichick vs Tony Dungy and Marvin Harrison & Reggie Wayne vs Ty Law & Rodney Harrison. However Belichick and company haven’t lost to the Colts since the infamous “4th & 2” game, leading to an 8-0 record since 2009 including two playoff victories. It’s going to be interesting to see how these teams stack up now that Mac Jones and Carson Wentz are at the helm.

You can’t talk about the Indianapolis Colts without bringing up Johnathan Taylor. Taylor leads the league in rushing with 1348 yards & 16 touchdowns, while adding 338 receiving yards and two receiving TDs. Carson Wentz has done an amazing job protecting the ball, as he’s only thrown 5 interceptions on the season, including only one in his past 7 games.

On defense Indianapolis will focus on stopping the Patriots running game in an attempt to force rookie quarterback Mac Jones into mistakes. However the Colts defense is only middle of the pack against both the run and the pass in terms of yardage. They do lead the league in takeaways with 29, while only allowing 21.8 points a game, good for 9th in the league.

The Tennessee Titans ultimately have a three game lead over the Colts, due to the fact that they won both head-to-head matchups. With only four games remaining the Wild Card is the Colts most realistic hope for a playoff berth. A win here would do wonders for the Colts with a tough matchup looming in Arizona next week, followed by winnable games against Vegas and Jacksonville.

Even the most die hard Pats fans are surprised by the level of success Mac Jones and the Patriots have risen to this early in his career. Jones has completely bought into the “Patriot Way”, consistently doing what’s asked of him while completing over 70% of his passes good for 3rd in the NFL. Between Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson the Patriots have a two-headed monster at running back that has given Mac Jones time to get acclimated to the game. Two weeks ago the Patriots were able to beat the Bills 14-10 while only throwing three passes in the entire game as they were able to lean on the running game in the windy weather.

he Patriots defense may be the most dominant unit in the entire NFL so far this season. They allow only 15.4 points a game which is least in the league by a wide margin. They also allow the 3rd least yards, as well as being tied for third in takeaways with 26. The defense is “Classic Belichick” as the sum always equals more than the parts. The only slight weaknesses in the defense is against the run as they rank 19th in yards allowed.

Coach Belichick is known for focusing on shutting down the opposing teams most dangerous weapon, this week’s assignment….Johnathan Taylor… Shutting Taylor down is a tall task that will require a team effort. However, the Patriots have had two weeks to prepare for this game and Belichick has a 15-6 career record after a bye week.

The Indianapolis Colts are 2.5-point home favorites with an over/under of 45.5 points. Both teams have been incredible against the spread recently, as the Colts are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games while the Patriots are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games.

I’m not stepping in front of Belichick and the Patriots with two weeks of preparation. The Patriots defense should be able to somewhat contain Taylor and ultimately force Wentz into costly errors. As usual when I’m backing a slight underdog I’ll take the plus money in favor of the minimal points. That’s the case here as we make the Patriots +120 money line our first official play.

I’m also recommending the under 22.5 in the first half of this contest. The under has cashed in 8 of the Patriots last 10 road games. Both teams play great defense and run the ball efficiently. This a huge game with major playoff implications, so both teams will play it close to the vest especially early on. I envision the defenses tightening up in red area, leading to field goals in instead of touchdowns.

Official Play #1: New England Patriots Money Line +120
Official Play #2: 1st Half UNDER 22.5

✏️As the #NFL regular season winds down over the next few weeks, there may be some correlated parlay opportunities (i.e. remember how the NFC East ended last season?) Take a peek at our parlay betting guide for some additional wagering nuggets.
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— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) December 14, 2021

Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots Analysis from The GoldSheet

Interesting that in a 2021 season marked with more twists and turns than the Coney Island Cyclone rollercoaster, it’s a couple of old standbys–Bill Belichick and Andy Reid–who have once again emerged from the AFC pack. In Belichick’s case, we have to wonder if he really welcomed last week’s bye that was the first thing to stop the non-stop ascent of his Patriots across the past two months, with seven wins and covers on the trot.

Given that both teams have been able to successfully turn back the clock and emphasize the run in recent weeks, this might look more like an NFL version of last week’s Army-Navy game. But good luck to the Colts and Jonathan Taylor trying to out-physical a New England defense that has regained its swagger and then some, allowing just 36 points (7.2 pg) across the last five wins of the seven-game uptick, the second-best all-time five-game stretch of a Belichick defense (34 points allowed in the first five games in 2019 is the only one better).

Meanwhile, Mac Jones (just two picks last seven games) has been even less apt to make mistakes lately than Carson Wentz, whose two picks proved costly in the recent loss to the Bucs at Lucas Oil. Belichick simply finding more ways to win lately than Frank Reich, including eschewing the pass almost entirely in the recent wind-swept Monday night win at Buffalo, and we remain a bit perplexed by the wagering public, still seeming a bit slow to “buy” on the Patriots and prompting the oddsmakers to again open them as an underdog (though only slightly) this week.

Bet On It | Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots Preview

The barking dogs, sandwiches, teasers, and steam plays are back! Join Kelly, Marco, Gianni and Ralph every Wednesday for Bet On It as we discuss the NFL and college football betting slate from a variety of betting angles. We begin the Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots discussion at the 16:25 timestamp.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines and betting percentages for all of the NFL Week 15 games, including this Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots showdown, from your desktop or phone.

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