Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Bucs Predictions and Odds Week 12

Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Bucs Betting Preview

WagerTalk NFL handicapper Andy Lang offers his Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Bucs NFL Week 12 betting preview for Sunday, November 28. At the time of posting, the Buccaneers are a 3-point road favorite in Indianapolis, with the total sitting at 53 points.

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Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Bucs Predictions

• Indianapolis Colts +3 vs Tampa Bay Bucs
• Total: 53 Points
• Tampa Bay is 0-5 against the spread on the road this season.
• Indianapolis is 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games.

Really fun matchup here as most of us Colts fans never dreamed that we would be playing Tom Brady in 2021, but here we are! We’ll start off with some crazy stats for this game:

-Brady has 5 interceptions the last three games. Carson Wentz has 0.
-Tampa Bay has 8 rushing TD’s all year. Jonathan Taylor has 13
-Indy is 7-4 ATS…Tampa is 4-6

Tampa came off the bye week and got shocked by Washington, but came back strong and dominated the Giants in a 30-10 win. The colts are winners of five out of six with the loss being an overtime loss to Tennessee. They started off the year with three straight losses, but have gotten into sync as the season has moved on, and last weeks 41-15 win against Buffalo was the highlight so far.

Jonathan Taylor has elevated himself into the elite running back class, and his MVP odds are even down to 25-1, which is incredible for a running back. Brady continues to do what Brady does…throw interceptions, win games and have more hair the older he gets. The third thing won’t help with handicapping this game, so let’s see what we can work with.

Gronk coming back for Tampa was big for them as Brady gets his friend and safety blanket back. Gronk’s first game back since injury looked like he never missed a beat as he caught six passes for 71 yards. Interceptions continue to be an issue for Brady, and he threw another one and we don’t know if that was his fault, but there was miscommunication with him and the receivers and the result was another turnover. Turnovers are hard to predict so I won’t try to predict one…but I’ll just say last week the Brady prop to throw an INT was plus money, and if it’s plus money again this week, I’ll be playing it again.

The rushing attack from Tampa was interesting as Tampa rushed the ball 27 times with eight different runners, and Indy does a good job against the run. Despite Josh Allen’s bad performance last week, the Colts secondary can be thrown on. They give up 247 yards average a game, and some of those games were against some really bad passing teams (Texans, Dolphins, Jets, etc). I feel Brady is going to do what he does best, which is run the ball when the defense plays two deep safeties, and then light up the secondary when they come out of it. As a Colts fan, I can tell you we cannot defend Godwin, Evans and Gronk along with Fournette out of the backfield. Brady should have a big day.

I was surprised to see how dominant the rushing attack of Indy was against Buffalo and that’s where this game will be decided. Tampa is back in the #1 spot for rushing yards per game allowed with only 78.4 and if they can take away the explosiveness of Taylor and make Wentz beat them with a heavy passing attack that spells trouble for Indy. At this point though, I can’t doubt this rushing attack. It will be a fun matchup to watch, but I think they find success and get Jonathan Taylor to his 9th straight game with over 100 yards from scrimmage. I just don’t think they can hold Brady back forever, and that’s why I like Tampa Bay to cover here.

The line is at -3, and if you can find -2.5 great. Brady will find the holes in the Colts defense and exploit them all game long, and I expect them to get to their 6th game of the year with 30 or more points. The Bucs have won seven games, and in six of them they’ve scored 28 or more. The one game that was under was the rain game in New England. So when they win, they put up a lot of points. I think the Colts play them close, so I won’t play this if it gets to 3.5, but as long as it’s at -3 I’ll take Brady and company to get the win and cover.

Official Play: Buccaneers -3

💰 Reminder: There are three editions of #BetOnIt this week: 1) College; 2) Thanksgiving games; 3) Sunday games. Here’s the Sunday edition as @kellyinvegas @MarcoInVegas @Greek_Gambler and @CalSportsLV break down the #NFL Week 12 betting slate.https://t.co/v2zROn4aTq

— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) November 25, 2021

Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Bucs Analysis from The GoldSheet

Following Monday’s matchup with the Giants on the heels of Bruce Arians calling his defending champions a “dumb football team” and criticizing Tom Brady’s decision-making for turnovers, it’s clear Tampa Bay wants to get things ramped up as they seek to defend their title. Indianapolis has bounced back from a painful OT loss to the Titans by winning three games in succession, dominating the Bills last week behind a brilliant performance from RB Jonathan Taylor. The Wisconsin product became the fifth player in the Super Bowl era to score five touchdowns in a game while racking up over 200 yards from scrimmage. Carson Wentz has also found a nice groove, so considering there won’t be any weather to worry about inside Lucas Oil Stadium, we may very well see a shootout. Indianapolis has won six of eight games and has been able to establish the run to set up the pass despite T.Y. Hilton just getting back in the fold. The Bucs are also getting healthier on that side of the ball, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see both teams top the 30-point mark.

NFL Week 12 Opening Line Report

In this week’s edition of The Opening Line Report, Teddy Covers and Drew Martin recap Sunday’s action before breaking down the NFL Week 12 betting market from three key angles: a) What were the look-ahead lines from last week; b) Where did the lines re-open after Sunday’s action; c) Where the lines are heading before kickoff this week. Join Teddy and Drew every Monday at 1pm ET / 10am PT for this informative NFL betting exercise. In this week’s edition, we cover the Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Bucs game at the 21:10 timestamp.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines and betting percentages for all of the NFL Week 12 games, including this Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Bucs showdown, from your desktop or phone.

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