Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl Betting Preview – Part One

Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Preview: The Betting Analysis

NFL content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his expert betting prediction and picks for Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers NFL Playoff matchup kicking off on February 11th at 6:30pm ET. What are they looking at from a betting perspective? Get his Super Bowl betting analysis now!

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Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Predictions: Best Betting Odds & Game Info

Sunday, February 11	Super Bowl Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Spread:	Kansas City Chiefs +2 vs San Francisco 49ers
Total:	47.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Game Time:	6:30pm ET / 3:30pm PT
Arena:	Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	CBS

Chiefs vs 49ers Super Bowl Preview: Chiefs AFC Championship Takeaways

Kansas City (KC) took control from the start of the game, both offensively and defensively. QB Mahomes was sharp right away, and a very clear game plan emerged right before our eyes.

Taking advantage of the rest and reset they had in the final week of the regular season, KC realigned its offense to funnel through three key players, TE Kelce, WR Rice, and RB Pacheco. Turnovers began to shift in their favor, with immediate positive results.

Defensively, KC made Baltimore flinch early, and the Ravens surprisingly deviated from their usual game plan. What I was most impressed with was how KC didn’t just sit back and use the same game plan in the 2nd half. Instead, they blitzed more and caught Baltimore off guard.

The Ravens never adjusted early enough and when they finally stopped KC’s offense from bleeding clock it was too late to run a diversified scheme.

Here are some of my other KC observations as they head into their Super Bowl Preparations:

• KC stayed true to the run.  RB Pacheco ran 24-69, which doesn’t sound like much, but because he runs hard, he’s a threat to win in short yardage situations.  If they do not commit to the run as much, then the Ravens could have delegated more manpower to defending the pass.  KC’s game plan enabled Mahomes to have more options.
• KC felt disrespected defensively.  All the talk was about how good Baltimore was all season long.  KC’s defense vs. the pass graded out better using my metrics.  Lamar Jackson was held in check most of the game, and had to rally just to finish with a 20-37 passing ledger.
• KC sacked Jackson four times.  With an experienced set of pass rushers, that bodes well in the Super Bowl.
• Mahomes was willing to throw short.  Part of the success was finding open targets on 3^rd and 4^th down, but until the last play pass to Scantling, Mahomes had completed 29 passes for only 198 yards.  Baltimore’s defense was tough all season long, preventing big pass plays but this approach may not be enough to beat the 49ers.
• Finally, KC still has a problem defending the run.  They were lucky that the Ravens did not try to establish the run after the Chiefs got out to an early lead.  Defending RB McCaffrey may not be as easy.

All these areas will be explored further next week when I discuss the matchups.

Chiefs vs 49ers Super Bowl Preview: 49ers NFC Championship Takeaways

Down and nearly out for the 2nd week in a row, the 49ers rallied to overtake the Lions thanks to a few key plays, none of which included the 4th down decisions by Dan Campbell.

Plays that mattered included the lucky 54-yard reception by WR Aiyuk, the fumble by RB Gibbs on the very next play after the Aiyuk short touchdown catch, and the two drops from Lion’s WR Reynolds.

QB Purdy’s legs enabled the 49ers to extend drives, and when a QB has success scrambling it definitely opens op the rest of the offense.

San Francisco has to clean up a few things defensively, but the stage is set for a compelling Super Bowl matchup.

Here are some of my other San Francisco observations as they head into their Super Bowl Preparations:

• RB McCaffrey is the best non-QB in the NFL.  His playoff stat sheet reads 37-188 rushing, with four touchdowns, and he had added another eleven pass receptions.  
• That being said, issues include defending the run, playing tighter pass defense, field goal kicking, and effort.
  • The 49ers have allowed 57-318 on the ground in two playoff games.  I didn’t see that coming.
  • That last “backdoor cover” touchdown from the Lions is a reminder that SF secondary is not all that great.
  • Rookie PK Moody has missed a pair of makeable field goals in the playoffs. You can miss those vs. Mahomes.
  • Finally, someone needs to talk sternly to Chase Young. He doesn’t belong on the field unless he gives 100%.

Kansas City Chiefs First Look

KC started fast, but then the schedule turned ugly. As I have documented here, and on podcasts, the Chiefs had a negative rest differential for six straight weeks during the 2nd half of the season.

What changed everything was the week 18 reset, as KC was locked into the #3 seed. Since then, they beat an injured Miami team locked into a horrible scheduling situation, Buffalo who had a two-day rest disadvantage along with two negative situational indicators, and Baltimore, thanks to a solid game plan.

Now, let’s take a look at what they did accomplish during 2023, as I briefly break down the various units on their team.

Passing Offense: No one sees the field like Mahomes.  His ability to make quick reads and deliver throws from all angles makes him nearly impossible to defend. 

Healthy this year, he’s also been more than willing to use his legs to extend plays as well as get significant rushing yards. 

Beginning with week 18 (bye week for most of the starters), KC realigned its game plan to include peak performers such as TE Kelce, rookie WR Rice (now fully acclimated into pass patters) and RB Pacheco.

Just as significant, KC began to exclude those players who either dropped passes or ran incorrect routes. 

As a result, offensive turnovers went down, and efficiency, such as 3^rd down conversion rates, went up.  Four of five OL hold up quite well in pass protection.  I’d give the OL a B+ in pass protection, and certainly Mahomes knows them well enough to make any and all adjustments.

Rushing Offense: In past years KC has been willing to abandon the run.  While Mahomes still attempts more passes than most QB’s, RB Pacheco is seldom forgotten. 

It’s highly doubtful that RB McKinnon will play, leaving just Edwards-Helaire as the backup should Pacheco go down.  The game plan would clearly change if that happens.

Pass Rush: For the 2^nd straight season the Chiefs exceeded my pass rush expectations.  This year they sacked opposing QB’s 57 times, and did so with a nice mixture of veterans and younger players.  
The unit wasn’t as stout in the playoffs until last week’s four sacks.  Their matchup vs. SF’s OL will be something I will discuss next week.

Rushing Defense: KC has not fared well vs. the run most of the time, but in the past, they have stepped up when in counted.

The unit was in the bottom half of the standings during the regular season, and has allowed 339 yards (4.6 per carry) in the playoffs. While it should be noted that KC’s three playoff opponents all are stout running the ball, so is their next opponent.

Passing Defense: KC’s pass defense is improved over 2022 and that makes sense.  If you remember, injuries forced this team to start a whole bunch of rookies in the secondary during the 2022 postseason.  KC was 8^th in pass defense percentage, at 61.2%. 

This is a more than acceptable number, and they have only allowed 57.4% during the playoffs.  One surprising area has been their obtaining just eight regular season interceptions (two in the playoffs).  With their pass rush, the number should be higher.

Special teams: PK Butker has been outstanding, and the punt game has been solid.  For the 2^nd straight season their kick return coverage has not been good.

Coaching: Andy Reid adapted with the times.  He recognized the need for speed before others did, and was ahead of the game, realizing that with rules favoring offenses, it was time to discard the old offense and move to a more dynamic approach. 

Many people claimed that offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy did not really call the offense, but as I said a year ago, he deserved plenty of day-to-day credit, as Reid of course has many other roles as the head Coach.  Matt Nagy is the guy this year, and I think he’s done an “ok” job, but not quite to last year’s level.

San Francisco 49ers First Look

Passing Offense: Brock Purdy hit 69% during the regular season, showing outstanding accuracy for a guy who has barely started over 20 games. 

Turnovers were middle of the pack, and yes, he’s been lucky to have just the one interception in the playoffs.  The 49er pass protection is rated as slightly above average. 

Aiyuk, Samuel, Kittle and McCaffrey are dangerous in the pass game.  Different players step up from game to game, but I feel Kittle’s overall contribution remains underrated.  

Rushing Offense: McCaffrey is elite.  His yards-per-carry is amazing, and his vision is something to behold.  Like with KC, the drop in talent after him is enormous.  To bridge the gap, Deebo Samuel occasionally run the ball.  Samuel was 37-225 in the regular season, with a whopping five rushing TD’s.  That 6.1 per-carry average makes him dangerous.

Pass Rush: The 49ers produced 48 regular season sacks, led by Joey Bosa’s 10.5, plus two more just this past Sunday.  Those two sacks are the only two produced in the postseason.  SF hopes Chase Young, acquired at the trading deadline can help ramp up the pressure on Mahomes.  He had 2.5 sacks in nine regular season games with the 49ers.

Rushing Defense: Speaking of Chase Young, he’s been a liability vs. the run.  His effort this past Sunday was deplorable. 

The 49ers have been known for outstanding run defenses, as evidenced by their elite stat sheet of 2022, which read 3.5 per carry allowed and just 77 rush yards per game. 

Here are the numbers in 2023.  Games 1-8: 4.15-86 per game.  Games 9-16 (omitting game 17): 4.45-91 per game.  Yards allowed remained stout, but that was a function of holding leads. 

As noted in the first section of this article, the 49ers have been unusually poor vs. the run in two playoff games.  They are certainly capable of better.

Passing Defense: The 49ers allowed a 66% figure during the regular season, which was exactly as I anticipated (65.6% in 2022). 

They have playmakers in the secondary, as evidenced by their 22 defensive interceptions, but coverage has been at least a slight concern, and remember, longtime DB Jimmie Ward left via free agency prior to the season.  The 49ers have allowed 61.3% in the postseason.  

Special teams: Jake Moody has had a rough postseason, but the rookie was 21-25 in the regular season, going 6-9 from 40+ yards. 

It’s always a business decision to replace a veteran kicker, and my feeling is that they moved on from the exceptional Robbie Gould because they felt he would not be as effective from longer distances.  So far, there has to be a bit of concern.  The rest of the unit seems to be about league average.

Coaching: Kyle Shanahan is one of the best offensive game planners around.  They typically are good to go right out of the gate, and know how to get their fine skilled position players in space for the big play.  He has the respect of his entire team. 

Issues have always been there about his late game clock management, and will remain until he wins a big game such as the Super Bowl, although confidence is high based on what’s transpired in the playoffs.  The 49ers lost their prior two defensive coordinators to head coaching roles (Jets, Texans). 

Steve Wilks is in his 1^st year here after doing a credible job in Carolina.  There’s been a drop on this side of the ball as compared to the recent past, but Wilks is still above average in this role.

NEXT WEEK: I’ll take a look at the key matchups for the Super Bowl, and provide player and game picks as well.

Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and my weekly podcasts with @lasvegascris.

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