Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl Best Bets, Picks & Predictions

Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Preview: The Betting Analysis

NFL content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his expert betting prediction and picks for Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers NFL Playoff matchup kicking off on February 11th at 6:30pm ET. What are they looking at from a betting perspective? Get his Super Bowl betting analysis now!

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Super Bowl 58 – Straight to the Best Bets, Picks, Predictions, and Player Props

Chiefs vs 49ers Super Bowl Prediction: Chiefs +2, Lean Over 47.5

Bonus Section: Some Player Props Worth Considering

Prop prices are fluid, and since becoming more popular than ever, they change rapidly.  I won’t be able to list some of the better props I have in this space due to line movement, but listed below are some recommended plays that are still available which are worth considering. 

As an aside, I will talk more about props on various podcasts later in the week.  Feel free to watch the podcasts live and ask a question.

NOTE ONE: Always shop for the best line.  

NOTE TWO: Cross-Sport Props are becoming an increasingly bigger part of my portfolio.  There are edges that can be had if one is willing to do the legwork to find the outliers (generous sets or wayward odds set).  A great majority of the cross-sport lines involve sports such as soccer and the NHL.  These lines come out later in the week, past the deadline for this article.

NOAH GRAY OVER 1.5 RECEPTIONS AND 12.5 YARDS: This is a replica of what I did last week, although Gray was +135 on the number of catches and at 9.5 yards.  Gray has had a 60% snap count, and last week was targeted five times, w/four open looks.  He’s also facing a more forgiving pass defense.  Lines range from -110 to -127 on receptions, and 11.5 to 13.5 on yardage.  

MAHOMES OVER 259.5 PASSING YARDS (Range I’ve seen is from 257.5 to 262.5): As an alternative you can get +200 or much more on Mahomes going over 300 passing yards, and anywhere from +350 to +500 on 325 or more passing yards.  I personally have +190 on Mahomes over 289.5 passing yards.

JUSTIN REID OVER 5.5 tackles and assists: He exceeded this number 12 of 16 times in the regular season, and 13 of 19 times overall.  Since I expect more of a shorter passing game from the 49ers, Reid should be involved in plenty of plays.

JI’AYIR BROWN UNDER 6.5 TACKLES AND ASSISTS: We’re starting to see this number dry up a bit, but Wager Web and one or two others still have it listed at 6.5.  Brown had 10 tackles and assists just last week, but never exceeded 6 prior to that.

I also recommend looking at head-to-head matchups, such as KC’s Scantling with more yards than KC’s Justin Watson.

One approach I use in games like this is what I call “manipulated” parlays. With the BET BUILDER option, you can build your own criteria, such as what I did with Mahomes over 33.5 pass attempts, parlayed to various other players, such as TE Kittle over 3 receptions. These parlays can still pay at plus money depending on how you set the criteria.

Do your homework on cross-sport props!  Like I noted above, many cross-sport props are not yet posted, at least as of this writing. One play I like that was sent to be was this: The total number of offensive plays in the Super Bowl -1 vs. the total points scored by the New Orleans Jazz when they play at Portland on February 10^th.  

FINALLY, HERE’S A NOVELTY PROP FOR FUN: Go UNDER 1.5 times Taylor Swift is shown during the National Anthem.

FINAL NOTE: While this concludes the football season, preparation and analysis never stops.  Expect to see me active over the next several months with podcasts discussing the changing coaching landscape, and the upcoming NFL Draft. 

I’m hopeful to share the stage with many knowledgeable handicappers in the field along this journey, which is intended to give the viewer a glimpse into the work that is done to prepare for the 2025 NCAA and NFL seasons.

Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and my weekly podcasts with @lasvegascris.

Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Predictions: Best Betting Odds & Game Info

Sunday, February 11	Super Bowl Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Spread:	Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 vs San Francisco 49ers
Total:	47.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Game Time:	6:30pm ET / 3:30pm PT
Arena:	Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	CBS

Chiefs Defense vs 49ers Rushing Offense: Super Bowl 58 Predictions & Preview

One of the best indicators of RB success in college and in the NFL is yards-per-carry. As RB’s age, that number typically declines. Anything close to 5.0 per carry is considered well above average.

Christian McCaffrey ran 5.4 per carry in the regular season, and is at 5.1 per carry in two playoff games. Unlike Baltimore, San Francisco figures to stick to the run game.

Brock Purdy was not much of a factor in the run game until last week, when he may have been the difference in the game. It’s something KC will need to keep an eye on.

The Chiefs are one of the weaker teams vs. the run and will have their hands full in this game. I expect McCaffrey to run at least 16 times in this game, and San Francisco would be wise to control clock with a mixture of the run and pass.

Finally, Deebo Samuel will get some rushing touches as well. KC has plenty of speed on defense, and might match up well with the outside run, but Samuel helps to diversify the attack. Look for Deebo to have 3-4 carries in this game, but I do not expect any big runs.

Chiefs Rushing Offense vs 49ers Defense: Super Bowl Preview

RB Pacheco had 97 rush attempts in his last six regular season games, and another 63 attempts in three playoff games.

We often think of the Chiefs as a Mahomes-driven passing team, but the greater reliance on Pacheco has paid dividends. Pacheco ran 4.6 per carry in the regular season, and 4.0 per carry in the playoffs.

As documented in last week’s article, the 49ers regressed defending the run in 2023. With that in mind, Mahomes won’t have to do everything by himself, and I expect another 15+ carries for Pacheco.

I won’t project him to have as dynamic an impact as McCaffrey, but as long as he is picking up 1st downs the result could be the same.

RB Edwards-Helaire is the next option. Running sparingly at 3.2 per carry during the regular season, he’s 10-53 in the playoffs, adding four receptions.

His value lies more in giving Pacheco a rest as opposed to making a big difference, especially on the ground. As we’ve seen throughout the season, Mahomes is not afraid to take off and run with the ball.

San Francisco’s LB’s are collectively among the best in the NFL and will likely limit some of his scrambles, but it is wise to assume that he will have one splash rush result.

Chiefs Defense vs 49ers RBs and WRs: Super Bowl Best Bets

Along with McCaffrey, WR’s Samuel and Aiyuk, plus TE Kittle are formidable options in the pass game. While the slightly injured Samuel has had the most playoff receptions as compared to Aiyuk (10 to 6), Aiyuk was targeted more (14 to 11).

Kittle’s touches ebb and flow based on how often he is tasked to block, but he was targeted ten times, with six receptions.

The most noticeable trend last week was how the four playoff teams relied almost entirely on their stars to do the heavy lifting in the pass game. Given my scouting report on the Chiefs and their solid pass defense, I expect shorter routes from the WR’s, as KC covers fairly well on deeper routes.

For me, TE Kittle is the X-factor. We’ll see how much he is featured in the game plan but there’s a path for him to be heavily utilized, especially as all the buzz is focused on the other TE, Travis Kelce.

Like I said a week ago, the 49ers would be wise to build up QB Purdy’s confidence early with some safer, rhythm throws. The 49ers will want to keep Mahomes off the field, as we know what happens when he gets in rhythm.

I think they will do so with a mixture of runs and passes. My initial QB set is 21-33 for Purdy, for 239 yards. I do NOT see fringe WR’s Conley or Jennings involved much unless there’s an injury, but there will be some three WR sets.

Chiefs RBs and WRs vs 49ers Defense: Super Bowl Preview

Everything flowed through RB Pacheco, WR Rice, and TE Kelce last week. There’s far less trust in any other WR on the roster, even though Valdez-Scantling had the big play at the end of last week’s game.

He had only one other catch, but in THIS game, he will be targeted deep once or twice, at least based on my analysis.

Games can be won or lost depending on the outcome of about 3-5 plays, and in my opinion, one of those plays might be the success or failure of a deep throw to Valdez-Scantling. This is a big stage for a rookie, but Rice has earned the trust of Reid and Mahomes. Baltimore was unable to stop TE Kelce.

It will be interesting to see how much attention San Francisco gives to defending him. Just last week, TE LaPorta was open all day, but mostly on shorter routes. Unlike the 49ers, KC is more than willing to use two TE sets.

Noah Gray was “unlucky” not to do more damage last week, as he was targeted five times, and there were two poorly thrown balls to him when wide open in the middle of the field.

Having two TE sets will not only improve Pacheco’s chances of running, but also create an additional reliable target for the mercurial Mahomes. Two more points: 1st, of the two teams, KC has had more pass rush success.

Joey Bosa of the 49ers may be the best pass rusher on the field, but I project KC’s pass rush to have more impact. 2nd, do not be surprised to see a few wrinkles in KC’s offensive game plan.

Reid is famous for running unusual sets with time on his hands, as I remember last year when four players literally spun around in motion before the play call.

Special Teams Notes: Super Bowl Preview

The kicking edge goes to KC”s Butker initially, but rookie PK Moody has a powerful leg and could hit a long field goal. As I’ve said in the past, making that 1st kick can be critical.

It would be best if Moody’s 1st kick is an extra point or a shorter, more confidence-building field goal attempt. I’m not sure if Deebo Samuel will be asked to return kicks, but given KC’s occasional return defense lapses, the edge here could be with the 49ers.

Coaching Notes: Super Bowl Preview

The Reid-Mahomes dynamic is real. Reid will design an offense to (hopefully for KC fans) confuse the 49ers and keep them off guard.

Defensively, KC relies on speed up front, but positioning in the secondary. Their fine defensive coordinator has pushed all the right buttons in the playoffs.

SF counters with Kyle Shanahan, who is as creative a play caller as there is. He’ll be willing to mix in the pass with the run, and likely won’t lose site of the fact that you “should” run on KC in order to create more single coverage in the pass game.

The defense under Steve Wilks will try to win in the pass rush, but must do so without letting Mahomes step up in the pocket, as his unworldly vision would then be on display. The back defense will likely play it safer, and underneath throws might be open under this assumption.

Super Bowl Keys to the Game

Purdy on the big stage. Will KC’s defense frustrate him or will he lean into his talented offensive weapons and let them take care of business.

Each team’s pass rush. Defensively, both teams have the ability to disrupt the opposing QB, but at times we’ve seen them neutralized.

These are two solid OL’s. Having time to throw would make either offense (with all their talent) that much more difficult to defend. KC’s run defense once in the red zone.

I think it’s a given that San Francisco will have some run game success, but once in scoring range, can KC, in a shortened field, make the necessary stops? Will the game be won or lost on the success (or failure) of some deep passing attempts? If so, who does that favor?

The 49ers Will Win If:

• McCaffrey takes over the game with his ability to not only break tackles, but have tacklers miss him completely.
• The 49ers make Mahomes pass on their terms, with Bosa having an impact and the LB’s cutting off his run lanes.
• George Kittle reminds people as to why he’s one of the very best TE’s in the current game.
• KC commits too many “unnecessary” penalties, leading to free plays and 1st downs. We’ve seen this before.

The Chiefs Will Win If:

• Pacheco provides value, especially considering the 49ers seem to be regressing vs. the run.
• KC hits on 1-2 big pass plays, as I suspect they will try to go over the top to catch the 49er secondary napping.
• KC’s defensive adjustments help to stymie the 49ers, forcing them to run a more basic offense.
• KC is able to win the time of possession battle.  Just like Tom Brady, Mahomes, once allowed to get in rhythm is not going to be easy to stop.

Chiefs vs 49ers Final Thoughts

With all that being said, this is shaping up to be a great game. I use three methods of handicapping, Power Numbers, situational factors, and matchup analysis. Let’s examine all three.

My Power Numbers show this as SF -2. At the current line, I show no value. I have no situational factors impacting this game. That leaves the matchup analysis. Based on everything I’ve studied and written about, I show KC with the edge, but it is only a modest one.

McCaffrey and Kittle are quite formidable, and that cannot be discounted. Still, if SF can’t ramp up the pass rush, I show their secondary as being the most vulnerable, and the creative Reid could keep the LB’s and DB’s off balance.

Kelce and probably Rice will get their yards, but even though KC improved once they stopped going to the less reliable players on their roster, this game might be won with those same players.

I would not be surprised if Valdez-Scantling, Justin Watson, and if he plays, Skyy Moore are schemed open. If that happens, it’s on them to make the play.

Chase Young has been a liability during the playoffs. He’s clearly capable of better, but I suspect KC will have some plays designed to take advantage of his liabilities.

Bottom line: KC has the better pass defense, the better QB, and thus far, the more reliable kicker. I’ll lean San Francisco in a comparison of skilled position players, but overall, this could be yet another trophy for the improving Chiefs.

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