Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers NFL Week 11 Picks and Odds

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers Betting Preview

WagerTalk NFL handicapper Andy Lang offers his Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers NFL Week 11 betting preview. At the time of posting, the Packers are a 1.5-point road favorite at Minnesota in this NFC North showdown, with the total sitting at 47.5 points.

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Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers Predictions

• Minnesota Vikings +1.5 vs Green Bay Packers
• Total: 47.5 Points
• Green Bay has covered the spread in each of their last nine games.
• The under has cashed in each of Green Bay’s last seven games.
• All four of Minnesota’s home games have stayed under the total this season.

We have a divisional matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Packers lead the NFC North with an 8-2 record while the Vikings look to get back to .500 at 4-5. The Packers are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. Meanwhile the Vikings are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall and 1-7 ATS in their last 5 home games. Both teams play towards the under as it’s 7-0 in the Packers last 7 games and 5-2 in the Vikings last 7.

In Aaron Rodgers first game back from the Covid protocol list the Green Bay Packers defeated the Seattle Seahawks 17-0. It wasn’t pretty,as Rodgers only completed 23 of 37 passes for 292 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. You have to figure Rodgers was shaking off some rust and will eventually get back into the form. On the season he has 17 touchdowns to only 4 interceptions and has thrown for 2,186 yards. Aaron Jones did leave the last game with an injury, however it doesn’t seem to be a long-term concern and A.J. Dillon has proven himself more than capable of handling a larger workload.

The Green Bay defense really seems to have found their footing, they held Seattle to only 208 yards of total offense and forced two turnovers. It was against an offense led by a rusty Russell Wilson, but they were impressive nonetheless. On the season the Packs defense ranks 3rd in both points allowed per game with 18 and yards allowed per play at 5.1. They also rank 6th with 16 forced turnovers. With Rodgers back behind center and a rock solid defense Green Bay seems primed for a post-season run.

The Minnesota Vikings are coming off a 27-20 win against the Los Angeles Chargers and look to get back to .500 this week. The Vikings have split their last 4 home games. Kirk Cousins has a truly impressive stat line with 2,434 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. The offense is loaded with weapons, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen have combined for 1,317 yards and 11 touchdowns while the running game has averaged 122.4 yards a game with Dalvin Cook leading the way with 648 yards and 3 touchdowns on the season.

On the season the Minnesota defense has been middle of the pack, they’ve allowed 23.4 points a game good for 12th in the league and allowed 5.6 yards per play which ranks them 16th. Mike Zimmer’s defense has improved over the course of the season, however they are also pretty banged up. This week against the Chargers they were missing 5 starters including Danielle Hunter, Michael Pierce, Patrick Peterson, Harrison Smith and Anthony Barr. While they were able to overcome these injuries against Los Angeles it could be a real uphill battle against Aaron Rodgers and company.

The Green Bay Packers are clearly the class of the NFC North and have had the Vikings number of late going 4-2 ATS in their last 6 meetings. They seem like a strong play as they are only a -1.5 favorite. However there is a lot here to support a play on the under 47.5. The Packers and their opponents have only cleared 49 points twice this season while the Vikings and their opponents have only went over 49 four times this season, combining for a 13-6 record to under 49 points. The under has cashed in 6 of the last 7 as well as 9 of the last 13 meetings between these two teams. The Packers defense is in great shape and has only allowed 18 points a game good for 3rd best in the league. And while both teams have vertical threats, I have a sneaking suspension both teams will attempt to establish the run to try and limit mistakes. My strongest official play will be on the under here, with a second official play on Green Bay laying the 1.5 points.

Official play #1: UNDER 47.5
Official play #2: Green Bay Packers -1.5

🏈 NFL teams that lose to a division rival on the road should be hungry for revenge when they play that team at home, right? Not so much. On Thursday’s edition of WagerTalk Today, @CalSportsLV did some myth busting on some #NFL division trends.
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— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) November 19, 2021

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers Analysis from The GoldSheet

Aaron Rodgers didn’t have a great day in the Packers’ 17-0 home win against defenseless Seattle (23 of 37 passing, 292 YP, 0 TDs 1 int.), but there were a few dropped passes, and the performance was good enough considering the opposition. That was the Packers’ 9th straight cover but this week things will be a bit tougher, with the Vikings coming off an ego-boosting upset of the Chargers that snapped its two-game losing streak. Minnesota’s defense is tougher than that of the Seahawks by a good measure and will give the Packers more of an argument than Seattle could. Still, the Packers have won and covered 3 of the last 4 meetings with Minnesota (visitor 3-0 SU & vs. the points as well), and really have no interest in bucking Green Bay’s 9-game cover streak.

NFL Opening Line Report

In this week’s edition of The Opening Line Report, Teddy Covers and Drew Martin recap Sunday’s action before breaking down the Week 11 betting market from three key angles: a) What were the look-ahead lines from last week; b) Where did the lines re-open after Sunday’s action; c) Where the lines are heading before kickoff this week. Join Teddy and Drew every Monday for this informative NFL betting exercise. We cover this Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers NFC North clash at the 31:45 timestamp.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the NFL Week 11 moneylines, point spreads, first half lines and betting percentages, including this Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers showdown, from your desktop or phone.

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