New England Patriots vs Dallas Cowboys NFL Week 6 Picks

Patriots vs Cowboys Betting Preview

WagerTalk handicapper Tony Mejia offers his Patriots vs Cowboys NFL Week 6 betting preview. At the time of posting, the Cowboys are a -3.5 road favorite at New England with the total sitting at 50.5 points.

Tony Mejia has been covering the NBA for nearly two decades. In celebration of next week’s season tip-off, all NBA plays will be available for $9 to kick off the season. Check out Tony’s Props and Futures Package for division title selections, regular season win totals and player awards.

Patriots vs Cowboys Prediction

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at New England Patriots
Total: 50.5 Points.
The Cowboys are 5-0 against the spread so far this season.
Dating back to the end of last year, the over is 9-3 in Dallas’ last 12 games.
Since the beginning of last season, New England’s games are 14-6-1 to the under.

The Dallas Cowboys have cashed in all five games this season and are a Ryan Succop field goal away from being undefeated, having dropped their Week 1 Thursday night clash in Tampa 31-29 as nine-point underdogs. After three consecutive home wins where they’ve averaged 40.3 points to defeat the Eagles, Panthers and Giants, they’ll be in the role of road favorite for the first time.

The New England Patriots are 0-3 at Gillette Stadium and will be looking for consecutive wins for the first time in 2021 after surviving the Texans 25-22 thanks to a dramatic second-half comeback last Sunday. Given that Mac Jones continuing to gain experience looks to be what this season is all about for the Pats, him bringing his tea back on the road comeback as a rookie was impressive. However, the Patriots look like a .500 team. Even their upset bid of Tampa Bay was aided by rain and questionable calls.

The Dolphins and Saints came into Foxboro and came away with wins. New England’s wins have come over the Jets and Texans, who come into Week 6 a combined 2-8. This matchup with Dallas offers an opportunity to swing upward since the Cowboys arrive playing at an extremely high level.

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott has thrown 10 touchdown passes over his last three games and has done so without relying exclusively on top wideouts Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. Cedrick Wilson has stepped up in place of the injured Michael Gallup in serving as a productive No. 3 option. Tight ends Dalton Schultz and Blake Jarwin have gotten into the act. In fact, over the past three weeks, the most targeted member of the Dallas receiving corps has been Schultz, who has drawn 22 passes his way over the past three weeks, dwarfing the next highest number of 12 that have gone to Cooper and Lamb.

Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard have thrived fueling the rushing attack behind an offensive line that has been putting in work despite being without suspended tackle La’el Collins. Pollard is averaging a ridiculous 7.9 yards per carry on first down, ranking No. 1 in the NFL. Elliott is second, posting 6.1. Together, they’ve gained 426 yards on 63 carries (6.8 ypc) on first down alone, which obviously makes life easier on Prescott to get the offense into whatever the defense is committed to handing over on second and third down, easily moving the chains.

Defensively, Dallas has been able to swing games thanks to the top rookie in the NFL so far this season, corner Trevon Diggs. The younger brother of Bills’ standout wide receiver Stefon Diggs has six interceptions over his first five games, tying a Cowboys rookie record while leading the league in that category. He was seen working with resistance cords wrapped around his right ankle in practice but is expected to play against the Patriots.

The same goes for Dallas DE Randy Gregory, who has been limited by a knee injury. With top defensive lineman DeMarcus Lawrence, it’s important that Gregory is out there for the Cowboys defensive front. The secondary definitely needs Diggs too, since safeties Donovan Wilson, Darius Thompson and Demontae Kazee are all dinged up and listed as questionable.

New England figures to try and run the football and play keep-away, a strategy that nearly paid off against the Bucs. However, it’s unlikely to be windy or rainy enough to help the Pats defense slow down an attack that’s clicking on all cylinders. The Cowboys have averaged 34 points per game this season.

The Patriots will look to keep pace with Dallas’ offense but are saddled with injuries along the offensive line. Right guard Shaq Mason (abdomen) missed the Texans game and has been limited this week. Tackle Isaiah Wynn is out due to COVID-19 and fellow tackle Justin Herron hasn’t practiced due to his own abdomen injury. Starting left guard Mike Onwenu did get back to practicing as he came off the COVID list, while RB Damien Harris (ribs) is expected to be out there as well. New England has been giving rookie Rhamondre Stevenson and veteran Brandon Bolden, back with the team for a second stint, a lot of carries of late.

Corner Jalen Mills is expected to return from an ankle injury, which is a big plus given the opponent and the fact New England traded Stephon Gilmore, who the team didn’t want to pay, to Carolina. He hasn’t played yet this season but is likely to play a big role for the Panthers going forward.

New England opened as a 1-point underdog, saw the number swing as high as four points and then some buy-back has it down to three to 3.5 points depending on where you wager. The total has been bet up from 48 to 50.5 points. Although the Patriots have historically been dominant at home, Tom Brady is no longer their quarterback and they’ve gone 5-6 straight up over the last 11 games since his departure. We’re seeing that although Bill Belichick is rightfully one of the best coaches of all-time, he can only do so much. Dallas’ talent and offensive execution should win out here. Lay the points with the Cowboys.

🏈Coffee and kickoffs?! Miami and Jacksonville head across the pond for an early Sunday showdown. Can Trevor Lawrence and Co. pick up their first victory? @MejiaDinero offers his thoughts on the London clash between the Jags and ‘Fins.#FinsUp | #DUUUVAL https://t.co/Tch1lGpYY5

— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) October 15, 2021

Patriots vs Cowboys Analysis from The GoldSheet

The Patriots look like a .500 team. Even their upset bid of Tampa Bay was aided by rain and questionable calls. The Dolphins and Saints came into Foxboro and came away with wins. Their wins come over the Jets and Texans, who come into Week 6 a combined 2-8. This matchup with Dallas offers an opportunity to swing upward since the Cowboys arrive playing at an extremely high level. Dak Prescott has thrown 10 touchdown passes over his last three games while Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard have thrived fueling the rushing attack behind an offensive line that has been putting in work. While Jones has been impressive, arguably the top rookie in the NFL this season has been Dallas corner Trevon Diggs, who has six interceptions over his first five games, tops in the league. New England is going to try and run the football and play keep-away, a strategy that nearly paid off against the Bucs, but it’s unlikely to be windy or rainy enough to help the Pats defense slow down an attack that’s clicking on all cylinders. The Cowboys have averaged 34 points per game this season and have produced 40.3 over their last three games. Laying the four points on the road with Dallas is the way to go here.

Patriots vs Cowboys Preview

Few teams have been able to slow down Dallas’ offense so far this season. Why kind of defense can Bill Belichick draw up? Kelly Stewart, Tony Mejia and Steve Merril offer their Patriots vs Cowboys NFL Week 6 bettering preview.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines, public betting percentages and so much more on every NFL Week 6 game, including the Patriots vs Cowboys, from your desktop or phone.

Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?

Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.