New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans Picks and Odds Week 12

New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans Betting Preview

WagerTalk NFL handicapper Andy Lang offers his New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans NFL Week 12 betting preview for Sunday, November 28. At the time of posting, the Patriots are a 7-point home favorite over the visiting Titans, with the total sitting at 44 points.

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New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans Predictions

• New England Patriots -7 vs Tennessee Titans
• Total: 44 Points
• New England has covered the spread in each of their last five games, while Tennessee has covered the spread in five of their last seven games.
• The over is 29-12 in Tennessee’s games since mid 2019 (though 2-1 under since Derrick Henry injury).

Two divisional leaders will meet in a crucial matchup at Gillette Stadium on Sunday afternoon between the 7-4 New England Patriots and 8-3 Tennessee Titans. The Patriots won their fifth straight game in dominating fashion over the Atlanta Falcons 25-0 on Thursday Night Football. The Titans are coming off an embarrassing 22-13 loss against the Houston Texans after winning their prior 6 games. Both teams are close to the top of the against the spread standings with 7-4 records while the Patriots are 3-3 ATS at home and the Titans are 4-1 ATS as a road team.

Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel is part of the Belichick coaching tree, playing the majority of his career as a player in New England. Bill Belichick spoke highly of Vrabel on local radio about how much he respects the job he has done in Tennessee. Vrabel is 2-0 as a head coach against Belichick with one of those wins being in the post-season. Belichick did give us his usual quote of “we’ll do our best to be prepared for Sunday”. But you have to figure he wants to prove that the student hasn’t become the teacher.

The New England Patriots have really gotten the job done defensively, allowing a league low 16.1 points a game. The Patriots also allow an average of only 313.2 yards per game which is the third least in the league. In the last seven games the Patriots defense has produced 16 takeaways, highlighted by four picks in 4th quarter against the Atlanta Falcons. The New England defense now leads the league in interceptions with 18 and have only allowed 13 points in their past 3 games. While the secondary is getting all the glory, the Pats defensive front has stuffed the run and pressured the quarterback which has led to those interceptions. New addition Matthew Judon leads the way with a career high 10.5 sacks and still has a good portion of the season in front of him.

Some may have thought the loss of Stephon Gilmore would set the New England defense back, but it’s classic Belichick to mix & match new pieces to equal more than the sum of their parts. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones has benefited from having a stout defense that gives him time to get a feel for the game. Jones has 14 touchdowns compared to 8 interceptions on the season and has improved greatly over the past five games with 7 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions. The Patriots have a dangerous running back duo between Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris, now that they are both healthy. Against the Falcons the Patriots had 20 first downs and 9 came on the ground which also takes the pressure off a rookie quarterback. Belichick and company have had extra time to prepare for this pivotal matchup which is a tremendous advantage.

As mentioned earlier, Mike Vrabel and the Titans are 2-0 against the New England Patriots. The Titans upset the Patriots 34-10 in Week 10 of the 2018 season and won 20-13 in an AFC Wild Card game the following season in a game that turned out to be Tom Brady’s last as a Patriot. Titans running back Derrick Henry was crucial in both those wins, however Henry is sidelined for the season due to a Week 8 foot injury. The Titans have relied on an offense that has scored an average of 26.5 points a game on 373.7 yards to lead them to first place in the AFC South.

Ryan Tannehill has been the motor within the offense completing 67% of his passes for 2,681 yards and 13 passing touchdowns. The first two weeks without Henry they were able to get wins against both the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams, however after last week’s loss to Houston you have to wonder if the league has figured them out. Tennessee has a middling defense that has allowed an average of 350 yards and 23.1 points per game. While they are stout against the run allowing only 97.2 yards a game, they have struggled against the pass allowing 253.3 yards a game good for the 9th most in the league.

This is a great matchup between two of the top teams in the AFC. Belichick is known for taking away the opposing teams best weapon. Considering the loss of Henry the Titans have a weakened rushing attack that will most likely be an afterthought. The Patriots will focus on Tannehill, keeping him in the pocket and ultimately forcing him into mistakes. The spread for this game is New England -7 with an over/under set at 44.

Considering the Patriots have had extra time to prepare and the depleted Tennessee rushing attack, I will be rolling with the Patriots spread here. Hunter Henry has caught a touchdown pass in 6 of his last 8 games. Tennessee has been stout against the run, so we will roll with a Henry TD for a player prop. Last week it was set at -115 and I would expect a similar number.

Official Play: Patriots -7
Official Prop: Hunter Henry TD -115

💰 Reminder: There are three editions of #BetOnIt this week: 1) College; 2) Thanksgiving games; 3) Sunday games. Here’s the Sunday edition as @kellyinvegas @MarcoInVegas @Greek_Gambler and @CalSportsLV break down the #NFL Week 12 betting slate.https://t.co/v2zROn4aTq

— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) November 25, 2021

New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans Analysis from The GoldSheet

They’ve been worried at the Pancake Pantry and other Nashville eateries about all of the Titans’ injuries on the offensive side, and how long Tennessee might be able to hang in there without Derrick Henry and Julio Jones. But even Carrie Underwood could tell you that it might be time to panic after the Titans couldn’t do anything, at home, no less, against the lowly Texans, with real questions about Ryan Tannehill being able to carry the offense after his four-pick stinker vs. Houston. That’s hardly the sort of look the Titans need at the moment against the surging Patriots and Bill Belichick, who’s one coach the crafty Mike Vrabel (who played for Belichick) won’t be able to outfox.

With wins and covers in five straight, suddenly the Pats have a Super Bowl look, led by a punishing defense that has allowed just 13 points across the past three games, the best such streak under Belichick since 2005. Picks by the D on the last four Falcon possessions last Thursday suggests the “Belichick touch” is back, while Josh McDaniels is able to lean on a chop-busting infantry led by Damien Harris to take a bit of the pressure off of Mac Jones, who stopped looking like a rookie QB about a month ago. Play New England.

NFL Week 12 Opening Line Report

In this week’s edition of The Opening Line Report, Teddy Covers and Drew Martin recap Sunday’s action before breaking down the NFL Week 12 betting market from three key angles: a) What were the look-ahead lines from last week; b) Where did the lines re-open after Sunday’s action; c) Where the lines are heading before kickoff this week. Join Teddy and Drew every Monday at 1pm ET / 10am PT for this informative NFL betting exercise. In this week’s edition, we cover the New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans game at the 14:00 timestamp.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines and betting percentages for all of the NFL Week 12 games, including this New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans showdown, from your desktop or phone.

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