New Orleans Saints vs Buffalo Bills Picks and Odds NFL Week 12

New Orleans Saints vs Buffalo Bills Betting Preview

WagerTalk NFL handicapper Andy Lang offers his New Orleans Saints vs Buffalo Bills Week 12 betting preview for Thursday, November 25. At the time of posting, the Bills are a 6.5-point road favorite in New Orleans, with the total sitting at 45.5 points.

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New Orleans Saints vs Buffalo Bills Predictions

New Orleans Saints +6 vs Buffalo Bills
Total: 45.5 Points
The over is 6-1 in the Saints’ last seven games
New Orleans is 4-0 against the spread as an underdog this season.

We talked on our videos last week that the Bills have wins over bad teams, and losses against good teams, and they are coming off their worst performance of the season against a team I would describe as good, not great in the Colts. I was high on the Saints last week as I though their running game would be too tough for Philly, and I was wrong as the running game was dominated by Philly and Trevor Semien couldn’t get anything going early for the Saints offense. So what do we with these two teams who are coming off of big losses?

It’s an interesting matchup for the Saints D and Bills offense because the Bills don’t even really try to run the ball and New Orleans has been the best rush defense this year outside of the Philly game. So I will expect very little production out the Buffalo rush game. As for the Buffalo passing game, it’s had it’s moments against bad teams, but last week could be a red flag. Indy’s pass defense is the weak part of the defense and Josh Allen was not productive. He now has 5 interceptions in the last 3 games, and Stefon Diggs is the only consistent option in the passing game. New Orleans is bottom half in pass defense, but can Buffalo take advantage?

New Orleans has major problems in the backfield with injuries to Ingram and Kamara. At the time of writing this, both players took Tuesday off with knee injuries and their status is unknown. On a short week, of course they won’t practice Tuesday so we will have to wait and see their status. Buffalo is still an elite passing defense, and I don’t think Trevor Semien can light them up, but on a short week and an unpredictable New Orleans offense I wouldn’t put anything past Sean Payton.

One thing I do on these Thanksgiving games is not pay too much attention to ATS trends. This week is very different from all others with the short week, the holiday, and odd travel. So I’m not depending on season tendencies on spreads and totals to make my plays for this game. I do think Buffalo won’t run much, and I do think New Orleans will struggle at times on offense, but if Kamara and/or Ingram plays I’m taking the over.

I’m seeing a Buffalo team fly over the total the last two weeks, and I see three of four starts by Semien go over the total. Some of it has been in garbage time (last week versus the Eagles), but those points count too. This total is at 45.5 points, and with the Saints being at home they are going to play all out for the entire game in front of their home crowd on Thanksgiving. I think Buffalo’s struggles last week are about as bad as they are going to be, so I see a rebound week for them. I’ll only play this if the Saints have one or both of their running backs for this game, if both are ruled out I’ll stay away. Wait until the final injury reports are in for New Orleans, and if we see a decent backfield…fire a way on the over.

Official Play: OVER 45.5

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New Orleans Saints vs Buffalo Bills Analysis from The GoldSheet

New Orleans surrendered 40 points to the Eagles last week, the most they’ve given up against an opponent all season. The loss was the Saints’ third in succession following the upset of Tampa Bay in which they lost QB Jameis Winston and dropped them down to .500. The fact Buffalo comes into town having dropped a 41-15 decision to Indianapolis won’t help matters since it has moved the Bills behind New England for the AFC East lead.

Similar to New Orleans, Buffalo also surrendered its highest points total of the season and saw QB Josh Allen continue a disconcerting run of sloppy play since turnovers did the defense no favors. This matchup should feature both teams tightening things up. Cameron Jordan has four sacks in his last five games while Marcus Davenport has recorded a sack in three straight, so expect Buffalo to run the ball to keep that pressure at bay. With Trevor Siemian set to start again, the Bills defense should also rebound.

Bet On It | New Orleans Saints vs Buffalo Bills Preview

In this week’s episode of Bet On It: Kelly Stewart, Marco D’Angelo and Gianni the Greek break down the three NFL Week 12 Thanksgiving games: Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears; Dallas Cowboys vs Las Vegas Raiders; and New Orleans Saints vs Buffalo Bills.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines and betting percentages for all of the NFL Week 12 games, including this New Orleans Saints vs Buffalo Bills showdown, from your desktop or phone.

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