NFC South Predictions For 2023 – BEST NFL Betting Picks for the NFC South
2023 NFC South Season Predictions by Bryan Power
The Atlanta Falcons made some major changes during the offseason to put themselves in position to win the NFC South this 2023 NFL season. WagerTalk NFL betting expert Bryan Power provides his NFC South Division betting prediction before the season kicks off September 7th!
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NFC South Betting Preview
Across the NFL landscape, my favorite division future is the Atlanta Falcons (+215) to win the NFC South.
When I look at the NFC South, my thought is that it’s probably going to be a two-horse race between the Falcons and Saints.
The other two teams – the Buccaneers and Panthers – are probably both going to lose 10+ games. There very well may be some value backing the Bucs as underdogs on a game by game basis, but they actually had the worst point differential in the division last season (-41) and Baker Mayfield is a clear downgrade from Tom Brady, even though the latter was at the proverbial “end of the line.”
As for the Panthers, I can’t imagine a team with a rookie QB (Bryce Young) winning a division.
Case For New Orleans Saints NOT to Win NFC South
So let me make the case for the Falcons and against the Saints. I’ll start with the case against the Saints, who are the odds on favorite to win the NFC South (at +120 odds).
Going back to the last realignment (2002), there have been 49 instances of a division favorite being listed at plus money odds. Only 15 of those 49 (basically 30%) have gone on to win the division.nTake note – for this season – that trend applies not only to the Saints in the NFC South, but the Bills in the AFC East, Bengals in the AFC North and Lions in the NFC North.
Dennis Allen is 15-38 as a NFL head coach (he was 8-28 with the Raiders from 2012-14). He’s never gone Over a season win total and never won more than 7 games in any season.
Now I know Allen and the Saints have brought in Derek Carr to be QB1 this season, but Carr’s four worst statistical seasons have all come when he’s been in the first year under a new play caller.
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Case For Atlanta Falcons to Win NFC South
I like this offense – a lot – even with starting QB Desmond Ritter admittedly being a bit of a question mark. People can question taking a RB in the top 10 of the draft, but I love the addition of RB Bijan Robinson.
What I really love about this Falcons’ offense is what I’ll call the “moving chess pieces” – TE Kyle Pitts and RB/WR Cordarelle Patterson. The offensive line is top notch, Ritter should take a step forward in year two and I trust Arthur Smith as a play caller. I also thought WR Jonnu Smith was an underrated FA signing as well.
The Falcons’ defense was not good last year, but upgrades were made via free agency: Jesse Bates at safety. Calais Campbell, David Onyemata and Kaden Elliss (latter two coming from the Saints) in the front seven. The Falcons’ new DC (Ryan Nielsen) also comes over from the Saints!
The Falcons had a top five special teams unit last year and don’t discount the double revenge angle Atlanta has with New Orleans. They lost a pair of VERY tight games last year (by a combined four points).
And I’ll close my argument with this: the Falcons have the best schedule in the division as they are the only NFC South team that gets to play Arizona and Washington, perhaps the two worst teams in the entire NFC.
Looking at the respective odds for the Saints and Falcons to win this division, I don’t think there’s any denying as to who the better value is.
NFC South Prediction: Atlanta Falcons +215
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NFL Divisional Betting Tips By Teddy Covers
In this installment, Teddy breaks down betting angles covering the NFC South Division and how the Falcons could fare this season! He runs through each team’s schedule providing betting trends and angles to take advantage of. Listen now!
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