NFL Week 11 Betting Preview, Advice and Tips

Part of my handicapping process is to look at each NFL game from a statistical and matchup perspective. This, combined with Power Ratings and situational factors help guide me to an eventual decision.

This week, I will use bullet points to highlight some of the areas that stand out to me as I handicap three key NFL games.

Washington at Philadelphia (Thursday Night):

Washington shows a 65% pass defense, but that number has been steadily improving from where it once was (70+%).
Washington’s 27 defensive sacks are much more than what was projected prior to the start of 2024.
Washington’s kicking game, and overall special team play has been another pleasant surprise.
Washington has yet to have their full bye week or mini-bye week. For a new staff, what they’re doing without the benefit of an early reset is quite impressive.
In Philadelphia’s five-game win streak, the sack ratio has flipped from 6-13 to 19-14 (25-27 overall).
The Eagles have allowed an average of 13 points per game during the win streak.
Philly’s 3^rd best WR has eight receptions. It is important to have A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith in the lineup.
The visiting team in this series has an over 60% cover rate.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Baltimore has the NFL’s best looking stat sheet.
Behind Derrick Henry (1,120-6.1 per carry, 12 rushing TD’s), they average 182.6 rush yards per game!
Conversely, the Baltimore run defense is allowing just 3.4 yards-per-carry and 73 rush yards per game.
Lamar Jackson is on pace to shatter his passing yards career high, maybe by more than 700 yards.
Pittsburgh’s Patrick Queen is 2^nd on the team with 62 combined tackles/assists. He played for Baltimore last season.
Russell Wilson’s yards-per-completion number far exceeds that from Justin Fields.
Pittsburgh is running below league average at just 4.0 yards-per-carry. The rebuilt OL needs time to mature.
Chris Boswell is 23-24 for the year converting field goal attempts.
How long can Pittsburgh survive with no real pass-catching threat behind contested catch specialist George Pickens?
This will be Pittsburgh’s 1^st Divisional game. The remaining schedule is brutal, and includes games at Philly and home to Kansas City.
Pittsburgh has covered at least the last eight in this series as a home dog. They are 0-5 ATS the last five when favored.
It’s rare to see a win over three points for either team in this series.

Kansas City at Buffalo

If you took the team name off the jersey, KC has the stat sheet of a team that is 6-3, maybe at most.
This is BY FAR their best year defending the run. Their pass D% is a tad high (for them) but not completely out of range.
RB Kareem Hunt is a workhorse but is only averaging 3.6 per carry. The team will be better when Isiah Pacheco returns.
Once the run game contributes, I look for the offense to thrive, as the new WR additions are clear upgrades.
Buffalo’s turnover ratio of +13 is the best in the NFL.
Buffalo is less “pass-heavy” this season, while at the same time, Josh Allen has fewer carries. That’s a winning combo.
While Buffalo’s sack ratio is solid at 25-13, both the run D (4.9 per carry) and the pass D (69%) are below NFL averages.
Buffalo and KC have met in each of the last three regular seasons. While Buffalo has been snakebitten playing KC in the playoffs over this time span, it may surprise some people that Buffalo won all three regular season meetings, ALL IN KC.
For what it’s worth, the series has typically been lower scoring than most people would believe (regular season).

Football GoldSheet Newsletter

Looking for a second opinion on a game? GoldSheet is the country’s longest-running sports betting newsletter, offering stats, analysis, historical trends and power ratings for every NFL and college football game each week. Check out why bettors and oddsmakers have been using GoldSheet since 1954!

CHECK IT OUT

Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and my weekly podcasts with Las Vegas Cris, Ted Sobel and Jeff Dawson.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the point spreads, moneylines, totals and betting percentages through every week of the NFL season. Oh yeah, you can also find free NFL picks and predictions!

**************************************************

Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?

Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.