NFL Week 5 NFC Betting Preview

The Minnesota Vikings are 4-0 and have trailed for less than four minutes this season. Can the Vikings maintain this high level of play, or will Minnesota come crashing back down to earth? Betting analyst Ron Marmalefsky shares his thoughts on the outlook in the NFC after the first four weeks, highlighting each team’s strengths and weaknesses thus far.

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NFC Betting Notes

As I did a year ago for Wager Talk, I’m back with occasional articles about the NFL and NCAA. These articles are intended to provide a glimpse into the process I use to prepare for not only the week ahead, but also to get ahead of the curve in determining a team’s fortunes as the season unfolds.

Last week I covered the all 16 AFC teams. This week I focus on the NFC. I continually look at my notes for each team all during the season, and evaluate whether a team is meeting, exceeding or underachieving thus far. While I look at numerous team and player metrics, this article will isolate two of my thoughts per team.

NFC Team Recaps

ARIZONA: Arizona is a disappointing 1-3, with an incomplete roster. The year two coaching staff remains in learning mode.

• Blame the defense, as they have allowed over 78% of passes to be completed.
• Both Kyler Murray and lead RB James Conner are performing at, or above expectations.

ATLANTA: After stealing a win hosting the Saints, Atlanta has a chance to catch Tampa in the NFC South race on Thursday Night. It’s evident that QB Cousins is still not at peak levels, but winning at less than peak efficiency matters in this division.

• Here we go again (and again). Atlanta has four sacks in four games played. When will they learn?
• The roster (other than at pass rusher) is coming together, but when will TE Pitts be a part of the plan (8-105 so far)?

CAROLINA: Andy Dalton has led Carolina to 60 points in two games, but lost in the shuffle has been the demise of the Carolina defense. As noted in their previews, the defense lost too much talent after 2023.

• All defensive metrics are underperforming based on my seasonal projections, which were already expected to fall below 2023 levels. With a LATE bye week, adjustments from the new staff will have to wait.
• Rookie WR Legette is 8-108 in two games with QB Dalton. With WR Thielen on IR, he’s likely a solid 2024 contributor.

CHICAGO: The offense has yet to find its footing but the pieces are there for in-season improvement, IF the OL can improve. I’m on record as saying this unit was not properly drafted. To date, they’ve allowed 16 sacks, and the run game is bottom tier.

• Caleb Williams is still a work in progress, expected of course, especially behind this OL. He’s completed 87 passes for just 787 yards.
• Somewhat quietly, TE Kmet has played well (18-162). As my readers know, TE play is important for rookie QB’s.

DALLAS: Despite serious flaws, and more Jerry Jones gibberish, Dallas is very much alive in the NFC East race.

• The major concern, as expected, remains the run game. It’s still unbelievable that Dallas hasn’t added to this area.
• The revamped OL is going through some growing pains. Better pass rushing teams will have at least a slight edge.

DETROIT: No offense is more balanced than this one. Unfortunately, the young secondary is not yet ready to hold their own.

• The Detroit stat sheet is spot on as compared to my expectations. Their Power # has remained consistent all year.
• Aidan Hutchinson has 6.5 sacks. I wanted them to add a companion sack presence, but they didn’t listen to me.

GREEN BAY: Jordan Love’s three interceptions last week is a reminder of what can happen when he tries to improvise too much and assume that his arm strength will carry the day. There are signs that the new defensive coordinator is an improvement over the old coordinator, but by no means is this a shutdown defense.

• Special teams matter! The worst unit in the NFL over the past several years still costs them games.
• The 13-6 sack ratio is a positive sign. That makes them relevant, so if only that special team unit was league average.

LA RAMS: LA has played three tossup games, going 1-2. Despite injuries and roster attrition, LA remains a playoff contender.

• The sack ratio is 7-13. Aaron Donald is missed, and the OL is showing a lack of depth. I like the DL additions, and it’s possible that the defensive pressure will get home as the season progresses.
• Let’s not forget how good Matthew Stafford is. He’s keeping them in games despite having little healthy WR talent.

MINNESOTA: Hats off to the coaching staff for a job well done. The unsung hero? RB Aaron Jones. His performance and presence have been essential to bring out the best in Sam Darnold. Minnesota has a good array of talent surrounding him.

• No team has moved up more in my Power Numbers (+5). It’s well-deserved.
• Remaining watch areas? How about the OL (11 sacks allowed), and if their solid run defense is sustainable.

NEW ORLEANS: What else is new? Dennis Allen could have had the Saints at 3-1, but the game plan changed once Taysom Hill was hurt. The stat sheet IS playoff worthy. If DB Lattimore is healthy, the Saints remain a tough team to play against.

• I thought the young OL would have some growing pains. They’ve allowed just 4 sacks. Instead, the run D remains soft.
• RB Kamara is overachieving based on my preseason expectations. That’s been helpful to their offensive attack.

NEW YORK GIANTS: There’s a well-known ceiling to what Daniel Jones can contribute. Close losses could have VERY easily been wins if they had any sort of faith in their QB.

• As I suspected, their secondary is not talented. Despite a more than solid 15 defensive sacks, the NYG have allowed 72.6%, which means they are unlikely to hold leads if the pass rush can not get through.
• Rookie WR Nabers has been amazing. Imagine what this offense might look like without him (35-386, 52 targets)?

PHILADELPHIA: Philly, we have a problem. Nick Sirianni is on the very hot seat right now. The bye week is more than welcome.

• Unlike Detroit, the Eagle DB rookies look good. The issues are a 6-13 sack ratio, and a leaky run defense (5.0 per carry).
• As noted often, Philly lacks a WR3. With both Brown and Smith banged up, the offense has predictably suffered.

SAN FRANCISCO: Last week was a reminder (even vs. New England) of what is possible for this 49er’s offense when relatively healthy. There are some stat sheet flaws however that have manifested with RB McCaffrey out of the lineup.

• I’m keeping an eye on pass protection (11 sacks allowed) and the usually stout run defense (okay, not special so far).
• If possible, TE Kittle is underrated. He does ALL the dirty work, and is making some highlight reel catches (15-161).

SEATTLE: The offense under their new coordinator (Grubb) is ahead of the defense. They finally played a decent QB in Goff, and as a result, allowed 42 points, after allowing 43 in games 1-3. I like how their Head Coach addressed the media after the game.

• Seattle has scored 23 or more points in every game. Moving forward, success in 2024 is up to their defense.
• Their exceptional trio of WR’s have combined for 67 receptions in four games. This stresses opposing defenses.

TAMPA BAY: I give Baker Mayfield tons of credit for his 2024 performance, which has even exceeded what he accomplished in 2023. With an early team stat sheet that has overall regressed, Baker’s performance is all the more important.

• Thus far, the OL has allowed 15 sacks (too high) and the vaunted run defense has been soft thanks to injures.
• WR’s Evans and Godwin have found the fountain of youth, while young RB Irving is outperforming RB White.

WASHINGTON: Dare I say this again: “Change the Culture!” Washington’s offense is doing amazing things, and rookie QB Daniels has exceeded all expectations. Now, can the defense do its part?

• Washington limited Arizona to 14 points, but still fields a bottom three overall defense by my metrics analysis.
• As expected, the run game has improved thanks to the elusive Daniels. It’s also paid dividends in pass protection, as his speed and vision thus far has enabled Washington to be league average in sack protection, a massive improvement over 2023.

Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and my weekly podcasts with Las Vegas Cris, Ted Sobel and Jeff Dawson.

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