NFL Week 9 Sunday Night and Monday Night Football Picks and Predictions
Betting analyst Ron Marmalefsky shares his thoughts on the outlook on Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football – Colts vs Vikings and Buccaneers vs Chiefs! Don’t miss out!
Colts vs Vikings (Sunday Night):
The Colts are 4-4. Given the Division they play in, they are a valid contender for a wildcard playoff spot. The Vikings have lost two in a row, and while inside the playoff field in the NFC as of now, there are four teams just a game behind them, and another two teams within a game and a half. This is a meaningful contest, which is why the NFL flexed it to Sunday night.
The Colts play what I call a passive pass defense. They often allow the underneath completion, and as usual, are allowing a high percentage (68+) of completed passes.
They also have trouble stopping the run, and that is why they’ve lost the time of possession battle game in and game out.
Considering 2nd year QB Richardson’s NFL low completion %, it’s quite amazing that the Colts have scored as many points as they have with such low time of possession figures. Joe Flacco will start this game.
Minnesota has one of the NFL’s better run defenses. Without Richardson to worry about, they can focus solely on stopping RB Jonathan Taylor.
QB Sam Darnold has been effective, and the reason why is that he has Aaron Jones, which has enabled the Vikings to produce excellent run-pass balance numbers. With that said, he has thrown interceptions in five of his seven games.
Early Keys: The Colts will likely live and die by Joe Flacco’s medium to deep ball accuracy. He was interception prone last year in Cleveland, even while putting up massive passing numbers. If he limits turnovers, the Viking’s WR’s can win over the top.
Once again it is incumbent upon Indy to share time of possession. Minnesota may try to blitz more often, knowing that Flacco is not likely to escape and run for big yardage like Richardson would. Interestingly enough, Flacco’s two starts came when RB Taylor was out of the lineup. Given Joe’s accuracy, Taylor could provide the balance needed to keep the chains moving.
My Thursday Take: The Colts have played good football as a Sunday Night road team, but it should be noted that this is their 4th road game in the last five weeks, while Minnesota is off their mini-bye week. Richardson threw 133 passes in his five full games, while Flacco threw 82 passes in his two starts.
On the weekly Tuesday podcast, I noted that this game shaped out as potentially high scoring (over 45.5 points).
The number is now mostly 46.5, but the Colts fit a general team situation that suggests higher scoring games, so combined with the change in QB (and therefore game plan), the over is still the desired look.
Football GoldSheet Newsletter
Looking for a second opinion on a game? GoldSheet is the country’s longest-running sports betting newsletter, offering stats, analysis, historical trends and power ratings for every NFL and college football game each week. Check out why bettors and oddsmakers have been using GoldSheet since 1954!
SPECIAL OFFER FOR FIRST TIME SUBSCRIBERS
Sign up for WagerTalk news alerts and get free picks, discounts and
Buccaneers vs Chiefs (Monday Night Football)
Baker Mayfield has more than lived up to 2024 expectations, but the Bucs have given up 135 points the past four weeks and are currently on a two-game losing streak.
Led by a much-improved run defense, KC is the NFL’s only current unbeaten team. Passive? Not the Chiefs, who have added two WR’s and one pass rushing specialist in the past two weeks.
One surprising fact about Tampa’s performance this year has been regression defending the run. They allowed 3.8 per carry and 95 yards per game in 2023. Thus far, they stand at about 5.2 per carry, and nearly 132 yards allowed per game.
KC is not one of the better rushing teams, but there’s a path to running effectively in this matchup. I love what Baker Mayfield is doing this year, and he clearly has developed leadership characteristics.
The good news is that he threw for three TD’s and 330 yards last week without his top two WR’s. The bad news is that he threw two interceptions, giving him 11 for the season. With less familiarity with the current wideouts, it’s harder to be in rhythm.
KC reintroduced TE Kelce into their attack, which wasn’t surprising to me. Like when Rob Gronkowski was in Tampa, KC is wisely using Kelce only when it matters, preserving him for the long run. In this game, Mahomes will face adequate pressure, but he’ll also face a pass defense that isn’t perfect. Look for KC to have a balanced approach on Monday Night.
Early Keys: Tampa must force KC to be one-dimensional. If they let up vs. the run, then Mahomes will find favorable matchups in the pass game. Mayfield has run for 169 yards this season, and has a LB mentality when trying to extend drives with his legs. KC must be aware of his willingness to run on critical downs.
My Wednesday Take: It’s Monday Night, so do not expect a KC letdown. It’s also their 1st home meeting (and 2nd game) vs. Tampa since Mahomes suffered his only Super Bowl loss.
Mayfield is good enough to keep Tampa in the game, but he’s not facing Atlanta’s defense this week, so there will be more pressure and pass rush to deal with. That puts extra weight on getting things right with his weaker set of WR’s.
While I’m not endorsing a side or total for the game, I like the matchup of TE Gray vs. Tampa’s defense. KC is not afraid to use multiple TE sets, and with more attention paid to Kelce, that should free up Gray to win one-on-one.
Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and my weekly podcasts with Las Vegas Cris, Ted Sobel and Jeff Dawson.
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the point spreads, moneylines, totals and betting percentages through every week of the NFL season. Oh yeah, you can also find free NFL picks and predictions!
**************************************************
Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?
- Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
- Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
- Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.
Make sure to bookmark all the above!
