San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons Picks and Odds Week 15
San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons Preview
WagerTalk NFL handicapper Andy Lang offers his San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons NFL Week 15 betting preview. At the time of posting, the 49ers have climbed to a 9-point home favorite over the visiting Falcons, with the total sitting at 46.5 points.
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| NFL Week 15 | Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Point Spread: | San Francisco 49ers -9 vs Atlanta Falcons |
| Total: | 46.5 Points |
| Game Time: | 4:05pm ET / 1:05pm PT on Sunday, December 19 |
| Stadium: | Levis Stadium in Santa Clara |
| TV: | CBS |
San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons Predictions
This game is somewhat crazy because if Atlanta wins, they will move to 7-7, and the 49ers will also move to 7-7 and Atlanta will have the tie breaker and that would put the Atlanta Falcons…the same Falcons who have been outscored by 108 points this season…right in the middle of the playoff race in the NFC. The 49ers pulled off an incredible OT win against the Bengals last week and that gives them four wins in five games, and the books are telling us that even though these teams are separated by only 1 game, they don’t put these teams on nearly the same level as San Francisco is a 9-point home favorite. The total is 46.5 so let’s dig in and find our play in this game.
Give the Falcons credit…they’ve won six games somehow this season, and they’ve done it against the bad teams. The Giants, Jets, Jaguars and Panthers have fallen victim to Atlanta, and they also beat New Orleans with Trevor Semien and the Dolphins on a last second field goal. They allow the 8th most yards given up per game on defense, and they are the 9th worst team in the league in yards per game. It’s hard to find stats that explain how this team is 6-7, but their numbers do tell us a story that we can benefit from in our official pick for this game.
The 49ers have turned it on after losing five out of six to a tough stretch of opponents, and they’ve done it with a combination of a strong running game (when healthy), a dominant George Kittle and Garoppolo coming through big late in the game. Their lone loss in this stretch was to Seattle that shall be known as the Travis Homer fake punt game. Looking at season long stats for San Francisco can be deceiving as their running backs have rotated in and out, their receivers have been different from game to game, and so on…but incredibly they are tied for 4th for most yards per play this season, and their defense is 8th best in yards allowed per game.
Atlanta is surprisingly a really good first half team. They are 8-4 ATS first half on the season and 3-0 in their last three. Conversely, San Francisco at home ATS in the first half is 1-5. Atlanta is playing with house money at this point, and has no pressure as they are not expected to win here or make the playoffs. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they come out strong and keep this game close. I’ll take Atlanta first half +4.5 in this one.
OFFICIAL PLAY: Falcons first half +4.5
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San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons Analysis from GoldSheet
The Falcons might want to consider the barnstorming route and suggest to Roger Goodell to simply schedule them on the road, where they have won six of eight times this season (on two continents, no less!) as opposed to an 0-5 mark at the very frilly Mercedes Benz Stadium in ATL. While pondering what might trigger this very strange dynamic, and if there’s more to it than simply getting away from their wives for a day or two, as the Falcons have also flapped into the NFC Wild Card mix by slowly but surely implementing new HC Arthur Smith’s objective of a multifaceted ground game that worked so well when he was coordinating the Titans’ offense the past few years.
No Derrick Henry on the Falcons roster, but Smith is also the first coach (college or pro) to realize that Cordarrelle Patterson is more valuable as a runner than a receiver, and along with Mike Davis and now Qadree Ollison has given the Atlanta offense legit balance and taken some of the burden off of Matt Ryan’s shoulders.
Meanwhile, with wins in four of five, and holding tiebreakers with various teams jockeying along with them for the NFC Wild Card berths, the Niners, despite lacking style points, have a playoff look as they have again unleashed George Kittle (13 catches last week in the Cincy win!) on the league. But SF’s recent history vs. the points in Santa Clara is not that overwhelming (3-7 last ten), and style points can also come in handy when trying to handle the sort of a price the Niners will have to overcome this week…if they can overcome the taking-flight Falcons at all.
NFL Week 15 Opening Line Report
The push toward the 2021-22 NFL playoffs is officially on. In this week’s edition of The Opening Line Report, Teddy Covers and Drew Martin break down the Week 15 betting market from three key angles: a) What were the look-ahead lines from last week; b) Where did the lines re-open after Sunday’s action; c) Where the lines are heading before kickoff this week. Join Teddy and Drew every Monday for this informative NFL betting exercise. We begin the San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons discussion at the 36:50 timestamp.
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines and betting percentages for all of the NFL Week 15 games, including this San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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