Week 10 NFL Recap – Week 11 Betting Preview

NFL Betting Recap For Week 10

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his NFL Week 10 betting recap as well as his lookahead to Week 11 of NFL kicking off on Thursday! What are his takeaways and look aheads from a betting perspective? Read below now!

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NFL Betting Recap For Week 10

As promised, this week’s article is all about coaches. Part One covers coaches on the hot seat.

Part Two covers coordinators, both the good and bad. Part Three discusses Coach of the Year odds as of 11/15.

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NFL Head Coaches On The Hot Seat

Brandon Staley: Staley is 23-21 overall coaching the Chargers, but has greatly underachieved with a roster thought to be of top ten caliber.

His coaching style has been often criticized, with a noticeable lack of quality time management decisions, and a rash of mistakes in 4th down play calling. LA finally reached the playoffs in 2022, then blew a 27-0 lead vs. Jacksonville.

I expect LA to part ways with Staley if LA does not make the playoffs, or if they are one and done once in the playoffs.

Arthur Smith: Smith is 18-26 with Atlanta, and shows little to no understanding of how to adapt to the changing rules in the NFL, which favor aggressive offenses.

This is a run first team that is content to grind out first downs but never test opposing defenses until absolutely necessary. Worse than that, his defenses have always played passive, enabling average or better QB’s to complete a high percentage of passes.

Last week Atlanta called 44 run plays and just 21 pass plays vs. Arizona, a team which had allowed an incredibly high 70% of passes to be completed. That was clearly the wrong game plan. Atlanta plays in the weak NFC South but has been unable to gain any traction. I don’t think he will be back in 2024.

Matt Eberflus: Eberflus is 6-21 with the Chicago Bears. I personally do not fully evaluate coaches until they have had a full two years under their belt, but the Bears may think otherwise. I haven’t seen anything special under his leadership, but as someone who studies the NFL draft in detail, he has received virtually no help from his bottom five draft team.

The Bears will have two very early 1st round picks in 2024. I’d lean to keeping Eberflus one more year, but that could change based on how his team looks for the rest of 2023.

Dennis Allen: Allen went 8-28 when coaching the Raiders, which was pitiful considering Hue Jackson (yes that Hue Jackson) went 8-8 with this team the year before he took over. He then took over here at New Orleans after proving his worth as their defensive coordinator. He’s currently just 12-15 as Head Coach of the Saints.

This is a perfect example promoting someone who is just not suited to being the main man in charge. Allen’s tenure is further complicated by the fact that he knows little about overseeing an offense, and his approach on this side of the ball is borderline tragic.

New Orleans was an annual playoff recipient with Sean Payton as their coach. Allen should be replaced before 2024.

Ron Rivera: Rivera is 26-33 as Washington’s coach, with his best season being 8-8-1. He’s consistently put his teams in position to win many a game, but lacks the creativity to get this team over the hump. In the past two seasons I witnessed too many instances where his 4th down decision-making was flawed.

I believe his coaching skill set is falling behind in this day and age. With new ownership in place, I expect a change.

I do not have Bill Belichick on this list, although I do believe there’s enough noise about New England’s performance to warrant some serious soul searching with regard to his future. Bill, the Head Coach is still quite good, but Bill, the GM has always been substandard, at least in regard to assessing rookie talent.

Belichick oversaw a draft of 12 players this past April. That has me thinking he would like to coach beyond 2023, with the opportunity to develop this draft class.

NFL Coordinators: The Good and The Bad

I’ll break this up into three sections, with short commentary. I’ll list the coordinators that I expect to be fully considered for Head Coaching jobs in 2024, the coordinators who are up and coming, and the coordinators who are underachieving.

NOTE: I can’t list everyone that’s done a credible job in these sections, so I realize there are names not on this list that could have been included.

Coordinators Who Could Be Head Coaches in 2024

Ben Johnson – Offensive Coordinator, Detroit: Johnson has fully transformed this team into a juggernaut and will be gone soon.

Lou Anarumo – Defensive Coordinator, Cincinnati: The Bengals are not a team that adds a ton a talent via free agency, and often do not receive national headlines for their (strong) approach to the draft. Anarumo does a great job with what he’s been given.

Dan Quinn – Defensive Coordinator, Dallas: The former Atlanta Head Coach recently turned down a job or two but I look for him to accept a job after this season. His defenses have been strong in takeaways and in rushing the passer.

NFL Coordinator Names to Know For The Future

Todd Monken – Offensive Coordinator, Baltimore: So far, so good for the offense. Monken is just in his 1st year in this role after coming from Georgia, and I expect him to implement even more of his system moving forward.

Bobby Slowik – Offensive Coordinator, Houston: He came with DeMeco Ryans from San Francisco and what he’s done with a rookie QB and an incomplete OL has been amazing. This too should be a long-term relationship.

Jim Schwartz – Defensive Coordinator, Cleveland: He’s been around for awhile and the 1st year DC has had an impact right away.

Steve Spagnuolo – Defensive Coordinator, Kansas City: He’s been with KC since 2019, but this might be his best work to date, as Spagnuolo has overseen a defense that has clearly exceeded expectations in 2023 despite some free agency losses.

Brian Flores – Defensive Coordinator, Minnesota: Flores was surprisingly fired after 2021 (Miami Head Coach), but resurfaced this season in Minnesota. The Vikings, expected to be quite bad defensively, have overachieved thus far under his leadership.

NFL Coordinators Who Could Be On Their Way Out

Matt Canada – Offensive Coordinator, Pittsburgh: Mike Tomlin is loyal to his staff, but Canada is likely on his way out.

Tim Kelly – Offensive Coordinator, Tennessee: Is it Mike Vrabel calling the shots or is Kelly, the former passing game coordinator calling the plays on his own? Either way, the Tennessee offense is not very good.

Dave Ragone – Offensive Coordinator, Atlanta: His career arc (Chicago pass game coordinator) has not been inspiring. This is his 3rd season in Atlanta. I’d make a change moving forward.

Mike Macdonald – Defensive Coordinator, Baltimore: The former Michigan defensive coordinator has found life in the NFL has its ups and downs.

In just one and a half seasons his defenses have squandered an amazing number of double-digit leads. I expect him to be the “scapegoat” firing that John Harbaugh must make after 2023 should things continue on the present path.

Vance Joseph – Defensive Coordinator, Denver: The former Arizona defensive coordinator may or may not be here in 2024.

Joe Barry – Defensive Coordinator, Green Bay: Fans have been clamoring for his firing. His tenure has had its ups and downs, and there have been issues closing out games and/or getting run game stops in the 4th quarter. This is his 3rd season

NFL Coach of the Year Odds

Listed below were the NFL Coach of the Year odds entering Week 10, via BetGM:

Dan Campbell: +150
DeMeco Ryans: +300
Mike McDaniel: +600
Kevin O’Connell: +1000
Mike Tomlin: +1600
Nick Sirianni: +1800

My take: Ryans is my favorite with what he’s done with all the changes made to this downtrodden team. Campbell is a highly deserving 2nd option, especially if the Lions achieve a top two seed.

Tomlin and Sirianni are interesting at long odds. All Tomlin does is win, even with a substandard offensive coordinator and a brutal schedule. Sirianni has really grown as a Head Coach.

Yes, GM Howie Roseman has given him tons of talent to work with, but battling through some injuries, Philly has the NFL’s top record at 8-1.

Bonus Section: Turnover Tidbits

Cincinnati has a turnover ratio of +10. If they regress back to the mean, will that create value going against Cincinnati?
Pittsburgh has a turnover ratio of +10. I expect regression. That means this overachieving team could be vulnerable.
LA (Chargers) are +8 in turnover margin. When favored, this could translate into some regression vs. the point spread.
Tampa Bay has a +8 turnover ratio. Baker Mayfield has had a solid season, but some regression could be expected.
Both Chicago (-9) and Las Vegas (-7) have below par turnover ratios, but in their cases, I would not guarantee that these ratios will improve.

Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and my weekly podcasts with @lasvegascris

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