Week 11 NFL Recap – Week 12 Betting Preview

NFL Betting Recap For Week 11

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his NFL Week 11 betting recap as well as his lookahead to Week 12 of NFL kicking off on Thursday! What are his takeaways and look aheads from a betting perspective? Read below now!

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NFL Betting Recap For Week 11

Let’s take a look at some notable team, player, and coaching performances (good and bad) from last week.

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Revisiting NFL Week 11 Results

Yet another NFL QB will miss the rest of the season. Joe Burrow will undergo season-ending wrist surgery.

That puts Jake Browning in charge of the 5-5 Bengals, who currently reside in last place in the AFC North. Who is Jake Browning?

You might be surprised to know that Browning threw for over 12,000 yards at Washington, with a 94-34 TD to interception ratio. Slightly under 6’2”, he does not possess rush ability. Browning was 8-14 for 66 yards last week, and took three sacks.

OUTLOOK: My personal Power Number for Cincinnati will be lowered approximately five points. I expect turnovers to rise, with their outstanding +10 figure unsustainable. I do not expect Cincy to make the playoffs.

Mike Vrabel (Tennessee) was once considered a well above average coach. His best trait is being “rules expert”, with a keen understanding of how to take advantage of loopholes such as keeping the clock running by taking consecutive penalties.

Unfortunately, he has no offensive acumen, and prefers an offense that features straight-ahead runs and very few pass attempts unless absolutely necessary.

Last week his team was down 13-0 and then 20-0. Despite that, Will Levis attempted only 17 passes in the entire game.

OUTLOOK: The closing schedule is actually manageable, but the Titans have little margin for error at 3-7, and 0-2 in the Division. There is a path to securing a wildcard spot, but only if they stop playing not to lose, and start playing to win.

With Deshaun Watson out for the year, Cleveland has turned the reins over to Dorian Thompson-Robinson, a rookie from UCLA.

They’ve not asked him to do too much, as he has hit 55%, but for only 295 passing yards on 44 completed passes. He IS a rush threat, although he has not yet fully utilized that aspect of his game.

OUTLOOK: If the season ended today, Cleveland would be the 5th seed in the playoffs. The next two games are on the road, at Denver and at the LA Rams. Playing Pittsburgh is nice, but the Browns will be tasked to step things up vs. many of their upcoming opponents. I lowered my Cleveland Power Number by 2.5 points with the rookie, but I still see them as playoff-bound.

Will Carolina win another game? Sitting at 1-9, they now embark on a three-game road trip. While I do believe they will find a way to finish around 3-14, I fully expect the Panthers to finish with the worst record in the NFL.

Unfortunately, that means Chicago, and not Carolina will secure the 1st pick in the 2024 NFL draft.

OUTLOOK: Trading the farm for a hoped-for NFL franchise QB can be dangerous. To many this is second-guessing, but believe me, you don’t burn a half-dozen high draft picks for a QB that is much smaller than the NFL standard, and was never going to be confused with Joe Burrow or Andrew Luck as being a “can’t miss” prospect. Carolina must provide Bryce Young with much better surrounding talent, which will be difficult considering their lack of high NFL draft capital.

That was quite a stat sheet from the NYG-Washington game. Ron Rivera outdid himself in the 31-19 loss to a Giants team with basically one viable offensive player and a pretty bad defensive resume.

Washington had a 403-292 yardage edge and sacked Tommy DeVito nine times! The game was lost thanks to a -6 turnover ratio, with three interceptions and three fumbles lost.

OUTLOOK: The NYG aren’t going anywhere even with the win, but Washington could be in even worse shape. I project them as being an underdog in five of their last six games, and a potential finishing record of around 6-11. Look for the new ownership to make wholesale changes to the coaching staff before next season, starting with Ron Rivera.

I’m concerned about the Seattle Seahawks. They sit at 6-4, but the missed field goal at the end of the game now has them 0-2 vs. the LA Rams, and the upcoming schedule is brutal.

I like Geno Smith, but he has a relatively low ceiling and does throw a bit too many interceptions. The OL is young, as is the secondary. The long-term forecast is promising, but I do not see Seattle as a complete team at the present.

OUTLOOK: The positive is this: Who could catch them in the race for the final playoff berth? Right now, the Seahawks are two games clear of their nearest pursuer, but the next four games are home to SF, at Dallas, at SF, and home to Philly. Going 1-3 possibly keeps them in the playoff hunt, but the Rams now own a tiebreaker advantage, and the Divisional record could be as low as 2-4. Watch this team carefully.

What’s next for the New York Jets? Zach Wilson made too many mistakes, but the QB room is at rock bottom now with Tim Boyle the presumed starting QB this Friday vs. Miami. Who is Tim Boyle.

His best college season was in 2017, at Eastern Kentucky. He had an 11-13 TD to interception ratio that year, and possesses no rushing skill set. In the NFL, he’s played for four teams, and has a 3-9 TD to interception ratio, and -4 career rushing yards. He is 50% (7-14) with the Jets, for just 33 yards.

OUTLOOK: I think we’ll see musical chairs at QB with the Jets the rest of the way. The defense will try to keep games close, hoping turnovers will swing in their direction. It’s hard to downgrade their Power Number any further than what Zach Wilson brought to the table, but I see another 1.5 downgrade at the present time.

Finally, after yet another close win, do we think the Denver Broncos can make the playoffs? Denver has only one win by more than three points, but there are promising signs.

Sean Payton’s BEST accomplishment to date has been keeping Russell Wilson out of harm’s way. Wilson has been accurate (69%) and has 19 touchdown passes to go with just four interceptions.

He still takes way too many sacks (32 so far). Payton is probably wise to keep Wilson under wraps, making sure they come away with some points on every drive, but 24 field goal attempts is still too many.

OUTLOOK: Denver has a 217-268 point ratio but stand just one game removed from the playoffs. My Power Number suggests about 8-9 or maybe 9-8, so there is at least some hope. The two games left vs. the LA Chargers will probably be the most impactful to determining their playoff future. The overall stat sheet is not playoff worthy, so at some point we may need to see the bubble wrap around Wilson be removed.

What to Look For in NFL Week 12 Matchups

Green Bay at Detroit: A Detroit win would move their Divisional record to 3-0, which could be critical in their overall seeding

San Francisco at Seattle: Another Divisional loss could potentially end this NFC West race. With a game vs. Philadelphia still on the horizon, the 49ers remain in the race for the #1 seed in the NFC with a win.

Jacksonville at Houston: Winning this home game is critical for the surprising Texans. A loss puts them two games behind Jacksonville in the standings, and with a 4-1 Divisional record, Jacksonville could end Houston’s hopes to win the AFC South.

New Orleans at Atlanta: Both teams were off last week. Games vs. these two teams are usually coin flips.

Baltimore at the LA Chargers (Sunday): LA cannot afford another loss, which would put them at 4-7. Via tiebreakers, Baltimore is the current #1 seed in the AFC, but they’re also one loss away from falling to the #5 seed. This should be a great game.

Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and my weekly podcasts with @lasvegascris

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