Week 13 NFL Recap - Week 14 Betting Preview

NFL Betting Recap For Week 13

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his NFL Week 13 betting recap as well as his lookahead to Week 14 of NFL kicking off on Thursday! What are his takeaways and look aheads from a betting perspective? Read below now!

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NFL Betting Recap For Week 13

Part one of this article will take a look at some of the news and notes from around the NFL. Part two will take a closer look at several teams from the NFC in and assess their playoff chances during the stretch run.

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NFL Week 13 Recap

Let’s start with what I saw on Monday Night. Jake Browning was confident and masterful in leading Cincinnati to a victory over heavily favored Jacksonville.

Cincinnati also stopped Jacksonville from running the ball, which was at least a mild surprise. Significant injuries to key players hurt the Jaguars, but credit the Bengals for grabbing the road win.

Does this change my opinion about Cincinnati making the playoffs? Their divisional record probably keeps them on the outside looking in, but if they can somehow maintain their outstanding turnover differential then maybe they compete.

New England made headlines on Sunday for all the wrong reasons. To quote: The Patriots are first team since 1938 to lose three straight games despite allowing 10 or fewer points.

The defense is playing playoff football, although the loss of pass rusher Matthew Judon has most clearly affected their sack totals. Special team play has been a disaster and the turnover ratio has never been this poor under Belichick. Until now I always felt Bill would be back to see his young team develop. Now, I’m not so sure.

The Detroit Lions got back on the winning track but had to hold on to defeat Jameis Winston and the Saints, 33-28. The defense concerns me. Detroit has allowed 121 points in the last four weeks, all to teams that may not make the playoffs (none of the four have winning records).

The schedule remains manageable and I fully expect the Lions to win the division, but they must up their pass rush pressure. They have 25 defensive sacks through twelve games, and that is lower than what I projected.

My takeaways from the Arizona-Pittsburgh game are as follows:

Arizona keeps giving 100% despite a lack of talent. That has been true all season long.
Pittsburgh continues to play to its level of competition. There’s not enough offensive firepower or creativity to win by margin without turnover help.
Speaking of turnovers, their +10 margin may be unsustainable, and that could turn wins into losses.

Here’s some random statistics from teams that are unexpected based on my preseason predictions:

The Colts have 42 defensive sacks. That’s more than I gave them for the entire 2023 season.
The Dolphins have 41 defensive sacks. That total has been increasing of late.
Washington fired its defensive coordinator after allowing 45 points to Dallas. They allowed another 45 points this past Sunday. With three straight double-digit losses, Washington is performing as I expected. Remember, they dealt two very solid pass rushers at the trade deadline. That was a “wave the white flag” moment.
Cleveland is a very different team on the road. The splits on points allowed at home vs. on the road are large.

What’s wrong with Kansas City? Honestly, not that much. The defense has been solid and the sack ratio is outstanding. My take is the same one I had in May, and in August. Their schedule is unforgiving!

Philadelphia had Super Bowl revenge and two weeks to think about it. Vegas lost to KC, but scared them, also with a positive rest differential. Green Bay had three extra rest days and won at home.

What’s next for KC? Buffalo, desperately needing a win and off a bye week. New England, not a good team, but they will have a +3 rest differential and will be at home on Monday Night.

A rematch with Las Vegas, who will also have a +3 rest differential. After that is a rematch with Cincinnati, who has a +2 rest differential. KC gets everyone’s best shot thanks to the NFL putting them in unfavorable scheduling situations. That’s not being discussed enough.

NFC Contender or Pretender Heading Into Week 13

Atlanta (6-6)

Atlanta is a contender only because of the division they play in. Their current Power Rating is 23. What does that mean? An average Power Number for me is 25.5.

This puts Atlanta as a below average team. But they lead the soft NFC North by one game in the standings and sit at 3-0 in divisional play.

QB Ridder leads an offense that is decidedly a run-first operation. He was benched due to poor play, but reclaimed his job after the bye week.

The schedule has them playing each NFC South team, plus a home game vs. Indy and a road game at Chicago. They have the inside track to finish 9-8 and claim win the NFC South.

Green Bay (6-6)

Believe it or not, the tough part of Green Bay’s schedule is over. Wins over the Lions and Chiefs, two playoff-bound teams have put this team in prime position to make the playoffs.

The Packers have always been a tough December home team, and that could easily continue with home games vs. Tampa and Chicago. To get to 9-7, all the Packers would need to do is go 1-2 at the NYG, at Carolina, and at Minnesota.

Atlanta winning the NFC South helps the Packers. Atlanta holds a win vs. Green Bay, but the Packers hold head-to-head tiebreaker edges vs. New Orleans as well as the LA Rams. If QB Love limits turnovers, Green Bay makes the playoffs.

Los Angeles Rams (6-6)

LA has gone 3-0 since their bye week, fueled by a healthy Matthew Stafford. Their Power Number sits at 26.5, which in the NFC is worthy of playoff discussion. The defense has quietly become average to above average in most areas.

With a 4-1 divisional record, the Rams, much like most of the NFC teams we’re discussing in this section, just need to get to 9-8 to have a realistic playoff shot. They are 2-0 vs. Seattle, which is an enormous boost to their chances.

Unfortunately, they may need to sweep games vs. Washington (bad history as host, but Washington is reeling), home to New Orleans (mixed history) and at the NYG (good history, Rams off rest) unless they can win at San Francisco on closing day. Bottom line: The Thursday game hosting New Orleans might be a playoff elimination affair.

Minnesota (6-6)

Minnesota started the season slowly, and after losing QB Cousins to injury, was expected to miss the playoffs.

That’s now not the case, and it’s fairly clear the reason why. All of their losses have been one-score games. In four of their losses, Minnesota was -11 in turnover margin. The other two losses were both due to a -1 turnover margin.

Moving forward, Minnesota has a very tricky schedule, especially now that Cincinnati may have found an efficient QB. But the ball is in their hands because they close with three divisional games, two of which are vs. NFC North leader Detroit, and they hold victories over Green Bay (with a home matchup coming on 12/31) and Atlanta.

Getting WR Justin Jefferson back makes this team even more potent. Every game on the remaining schedule could be classified as a tossup, but if they stop turning the ball over than the Vikings have a decent shot at making the playoffs.

New Orleans (5-7)

New Orleans has arguably the most talent in the NFC South, although the WR unit is not at full strength and the absence of star DB Marcus Lattimore is not a good thing.

They also have one of the worst coaching staffs in the NFL. Dennis Allen prefers not to open up the offense until they get behind. They’ve lost their last three games, putting the preseason divisional favorites in danger of missing the playoffs.

The Saints have a grand total of 19 defensive sacks, putting them tied for 30th in the NFL. QB Carr may miss the next game (concussion), which “should” be a winnable one vs. Carolina. New Orleans has a Power Number of 24, which amazingly is still the “best” in the NFC South.

Closing games are at the LA Rams, at Tampa, and home to Atlanta. I think they need to go 4-1 down the stretch to make the playoffs, and that very likely must include wins over the Rams and probably Atlanta as well. Miss the playoffs, and Dennis Allen will not be returning as Head Coach.

Seattle (6-6)

About three weeks ago I faded Seattle with a ticket saying NO, they would not make the playoffs, at very generous odds.

This is a young team that was about to embark on a very treacherous stretch of games. They competed hard vs. most of these tough opponents, but at 6-6, they have a whole bunch of work to do to return to the playoffs.

Seattle is just 1-3 in divisional play, which includes a potentially back-breaking 0-2 vs. the LA Rams. The closing schedule is tougher than most of the teams listed in this section. Road games are at San Francisco, Tennessee and Arizona. Home games are to Philly and Pittsburgh.

Even 3-2 might not be enough to return to the playoffs. As it stands right now, they would lose tiebreakers to the Rams, Green Bay and Minnesota should they all finish 9-8. The missed field goal vs. LA on 11/18 may be the difference.

Tampa Bay (5-7)

Tampa 2-1 in the NFC South, but just 5-7 overall. They have a very similar Power Number to their divisional rivals, sitting at 23. They beat Minnesota, and have a very important game at Green Bay coming up.

The stat sheet puts them right into the mix for playoff contention, but I rate their coaching staff a bit below average, meaning I’m not sure if they can pull off four wins to make the playoffs.

They must beat Atlanta this week to remain in contention for the NFC South title, and then must beat Green Bay the following week to keep playoff hopes alive, as that would give them tiebreaker edges vs. both the Packers and Vikings.

Even with these two “upsets”, Tampa must close the year out going 2-1 vs. Jacksonville, New Orleans and (at) Carolina. It looks like Tampa is more likely to miss the playoffs as opposed to making the playoffs.

Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and my weekly podcasts with @lasvegascris

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