NFL Week 13 WagerTalk Power Ratings

All NFL teams have played at least ten games. Unlike some seasons, we can clearly identify the top teams in the NFL, and clearly identify the bottom teams in the NFL.

In my opinion there are two very clear tiers at the top of the NFL. Below is my list of the top teams, with five teams making my tier one group, and eight teams listed in my tier two group. As you will see, teams in tier two are separated by only one point in my Power Ratings.

In most years, it’s the middle of the NFL where teams hovering around .500 are closely bunched. This seems like an unusual case, where we have quite a disparity between the good and bad teams in the league.

Tier One NFL Teams

Detroit – 33.5

2T. Buffalo – 31.5

2T. Baltimore – 31.5

4T. Kansas City – 30.5

4T. Philadelphia – 30.5

Detroit has earned the right to be #1. Their offense is the most balanced I’ve seen in the NFL in quite some time. The one weak link is at CB, where their rookies are still finding their way.

Buffalo was already higher rated over KC before that victory, so there was no change in my #’s after their (expected) home win. Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level, slightly masking some defensive concerns.

Baltimore has put up amazing numbers on both sides of the ball as it relates to the run game, and the Todd Monken offense is even more efficient in year #2. Let’s not dwell on their result vs. Pittsburgh, as that series is one of a kind. This is potentially the NFL’s best team, but they still need to perform to capacity in big games, and perform better protecting leads.

Kansas City’s Power # has been the most consistent of any NFL team, almost never moving all season long. Mahomes is having a subpar season, especially with turnovers, but is always there in crunch time. The run defense has been their best in years.
Philadelphia crashed this group two-three weeks ago once their elite WR duo got healthy. There’s a massive drop after Brown and Smith, so these guys must stay healthy. I praised this team for drafting two nearly ready to go DB’s in the draft. It’s made a world of difference to their overall defensive #’s.

Tier Two NFL Teams

Los Angeles Chargers – 29

Green Bay – 28.5

Cincinnati – 28.5

Houston – 28.5

Pittsburgh – 28.5

San Francisco – 28

Minnesota – 28

Miami – 28

As you can see, not much separates these teams. I’ve never had this many teams hit tier two status, but I’m very comfortable with how the numbers shake out.

The LA Chargers play Jim Harbaugh football, which is a complement. I went out on a limb with my draft report, noting how “perfect” their draft was based on the style of play they would be utilizing. There’s still work to be done, but LA is not an easy out for any opponent.

Green Bay’s Jordan Love has backed up his play from 2023. The youth they’ve assembled at the skill positions has paid off, and they’re well-coached. The OL is top tier in pass protection. The defense isn’t there yet, but like the Chargers, they belong here.

Cincinnati may be a surprise to some as a top tier team, but Joe Burrow is a superstar, and at full strength, the offense is tough to stop. The defense has regressed (secondary), but like the others on this tier two list, they can beat any team in the NFL.

Houston had a lot of moving parts defensively to open 2024, and there was tape on C.J. Stroud. It helps that they play in the AFC South, but the coaching is more than solid and there are signs of improvement in several areas on the team.

Pittsburgh is 8-2. Let that sink in. Russell Wilson and Justin Fields were busts in Denver and Chicago, respectively, but behind a very raw OL and thin WR unit, Mike Tomlin’s team continues to outperform expectations.

It’s a (very) tricky schedule the rest of the way, with short weeks and divisional matchups galore, but any team with T.J. Watt on it has to be taken seriously.

San Francisco’s Power # is circled, meaning due to injuries there’s volatility in the number. George Kittle, Mr. positivity, and one of the good guys in the NFL was sorely missed last week vs. Seattle.

RB McCaffrey is coming off a serious injury, and several other important players are less than 100%. Last week proved you just can’t turn on a switch and play like they did in 2023. SF has room to improve, but even the run defense has taken a hit this season.

Minnesota has looked awfully good in 2024, especially defensively. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores runs a complicated scheme and it took a second year to see improvement. Sam Darnold still has a tier two ceiling, but RB Aaron Jones really helps.

Miami’s Power # was circled for six straight weeks, and finally came off the circle this week. This is their first week in tier two status, but with Tua having some games under his belt, the offense has been back in sync.

The defense may still hold them back, as it is basically league average, and below average in sack production. Injuries continue to stunt growth along the DL.

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