Week 15 NFL Recap - Week 16 Betting Preview

NFL Betting Recap For Week 15

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his NFL Week 15 betting recap as well as his lookahead to Week 16 of NFL kicking off on Thursday! What are his takeaways and look aheads from a betting perspective? Read below now!

You get free NFL picks from WagerTalk all season long – including Week 16 and beyond. Get your free sports picks now!

NFL Betting Recap For Week 15

In part one of this article, I provide observations from Week 15. In part two, I will take an early look at two games for Week 16.

Before You Read NFL Week 15 Recap… Get $15 FREE towards all expert picks – including NFL Week 16 Bets & More

NFL Week 15 Recap

It was a foregone conclusion that Brandon Staley would not be the coach of the LA Chargers in 2024, but the embarrassing performance last Thursday Night led to an earlier departure. Lost in the shuffle was that General Manager Tom Telesco was also fired. This was a move that had to be made and here’s why:

Telesco was mostly passive on draft day and during free agency. In an era where teams trade draft picks like never before, Telesco made no moves in five of the last seven seasons. It got to the point where teams stopped calling him. As for free agency, I never really felt he had a blueprint for fixing the entire roster.

Where is the WR speed? LA has a solid one-two punch at the position (when Mike Williams stays healthy) but for years they have lacked a diverse pass-catching target, instead settling for the same old profile. Sticking to one concept helps at times with succession planning, but drafting Zay Flowers or Jordan Addison (both easily more camera-ready right now) would have given LA more creativity. I’ve written 40 NFL draft reports, and I shake my head sometimes with what I see on draft day.
While we’re at it, when was the last time Telesco made a meaningful in-season move?

To be fair, LA has mostly exceeded expectations in the 1st round. Unfortunately, perennial playoff teams are built on what you do to build the entire roster.
The starting roster is not that bad. Let’s see if LA can get the next coach/GM hire right.

15 minutes of fame? That’s the likely story for Tommy DeVito of the New York Giants. I read on Monday that he had been sacked 35 times this season. He’s thrown 160 passes. He’s just one of many back-up QB’s that are not suited to even be in the NFL, much less start.

Maybe we need to go back to what some organizations used to do a decade or so ago. The thinking was that your QB was the most important investment, with the backup QB being the second most important investment. Maybe that’s a bit high, but in a 17-game season, more thought needs to be put into this concept.

Chicago played well enough to win at Cleveland last week, but let the game slip away. Despite the loss, my Chicago Power Number improved, while Cleveland’s very average home performance caused me to lower their rating.

The Bears have twenty defensive interceptions and are certainly playing better defensively then they were earlier in the season. There’s upside moving into 2024, but the next three weeks are critical not only to further evaluate Justin Fields, but also to evaluate their Head Coach.

Riverboat Ron Rivera has likely reached the end of the line. One week after Tennessee, down 14, scored a touchdown and went for the two-point conversion, Rivera, in the same situation, opted to kick the extra point.

In this day and age, it makes sense to go for two. It didn’t back when scoring was lower, the rules were different, and there wasn’t such a thing as RPO’s (run-pass options). It does now, especially with extra points now not automatic.

Denver was exposed at Detroit on Sunday. Yes, they were in a rough spot, one that with all the variables was one of the strongest negative situations I’ve seen in the past several seasons, but consider this: During their resurgence, the defense did not markedly improve.

Denver rode positive turnover variance during the win streak. Both of their recent losses came when they failed to achieve a positive turnover ratio.

The path to the playoffs is still there thanks to an extremely manageable closing schedule, but Sean Payton will have to coach them up to make it happen. If they fail to get to the playoffs, what happens to Russell Wilson?

Josh Allen threw 15 passes for less than 100 yards and Buffalo won comfortably. Was someone listening to me? I’ve called for more reliance on RB Cook and the run game to take the pressure of Allen trying to force things in the pass game. Keep to that script and the Bills will not only make the playoffs, but be dangerous once in the playoffs.

Finally, how about that final interception made by Julian Love to secure Seattle’s “upset” over Philadelphia? Watch the entire sequence. He sprints back in the middle of the field and then hustles to the sideline to make a great play while staying in bounds.

As I said earlier, I study and write about the draft. What he did was an exact replica of the defensive back combine drill. I study what happens at the combine, how they backpedal, how they time their jumps, and can they secure the catch. Love was perfect in all three phases. Teamed with a “teacher” like Pete Carroll, Love likely used his training and instincts to put an end to the Monday Night game.

NFL Week 16 Previews – First Look at Two Sunday Games

Much of the talk this week will center on three high profile games, Detroit at Minnesota, Dallas at Miami, and Baltimore at San Francisco. Let’s instead use this space to provide a first look at two under the radar games.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If the season ended today, both the Jaguars and Bucs would be in the playoffs. The season doesn’t end today, and both teams have more work to do.

Jacksonville has lost three in a row and the Colts and Texans are now tied with the Jags at 8-6. Jacksonville does not play either team down the stretch, and with a Divisional record of 4-1, would win all tiebreakers should they defeat Tennessee in the final game. Tampa is tied with New Orleans and is one game ahead of Atlanta. They host the Saints on New Year’s Eve.

The Jags have to play better. QB Lawrence is not 100% healthy, and needs help from a defense that is below par in defensive sacks, and average at best in other key defensive categories.

RB Etienne’s yards-per-carry has been well below average this season. For Tampa, Baker Mayfield is showing high confidence right now, and after an extremely slow start, RB White, who was not running much more than 3.0 yards-per-carry, has been much better, going 81-375 at 4.6 yards-per-carry his last four games.

At 1st glance, my matchup analysis makes this a dead even game, and my Power Numbers have Tampa by ½ point. Can Jacksonville regain its confidence? It might be a good idea to get into the mindset of this team before game time.

Cleveland Browns vs Houston Texans

Cleveland has been much better at home, yet may have stolen one or both of their home games these past two weeks. Joe Flacco has led impressive game-winning drives, but he’s also thrown five interceptions in his three starts.

I’d argue that Cleveland and Houston were outplayed last week, and in Houston’s case, their win vs. Tennessee might end up being the difference between making and missing the playoffs.

Houston won without C.J. Stroud and WR Nico Collins which was impressive. You can’t fix everything in one year, but Houston is still quite vulnerable vs. the pass, and their OL has allowed 22 sacks in their last five games (19 allowed in the previous nine).

2-1 definitely gets Cleveland into the playoffs, while 1-2 makes this closer to a 50-50 proposition. Houston on the other hand will need to go at least 2-1 get in. Their game at Indy to close 2024 might be a classic “play-in” affair.

As for the matchup analysis, I do not think Cleveland can run on Houston, so Stroud or Keenum much have an efficient, mostly error free pass game.

Houston will be facing a Cleveland defense that is far and away the best in the NFL at limiting pass completions, to the tune of just 55.2%. Their task is to establish the run and wear Cleveland down. This is a classic chess match game that will be a fun one to watch unfold.

Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and my weekly podcasts with @lasvegascris

Get GoldSheet for Football Betting Tips All Year and Best Bets Today

The Football GoldSheet newsletter is now available for purchase at WagerTalk! From Week 0, in college football all the way through the Super Bowl, get expert analysis, box score recaps, power ratings and much more from the country’s oldest and most popular sports betting newsletter.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen NFL

WagerTalk’s live NFL odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the run spreads, totals and betting percentages for all NFL games.

**************************************************

Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?

Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.

Make sure to bookmark all the above!