Week 16 NFL Recap – Week 17 Betting Preview

NFL Betting Recap For Week 15

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his NFL Week 16 betting recap as well as his lookahead to Week 17 of NFL kicking off on Thursday! What are his takeaways and look aheads from a betting perspective? Read below now!

You get free NFL picks from WagerTalk all season long – including Week 17 and beyond. Get your free sports picks now!

NFL Betting Recap For Week 16

In part one of this article, I provide observations from week 16. In part two, I look at what awaits a handful of NFL teams as they enter the final two weeks of the season.

Before You Read NFL Week 16 Recap… Get $15 FREE towards all expert picks – including NFL Week 17 Bets & More

NFL Week 16 Recap

The line for Tampa hosting Jacksonville was Tampa even or -1 during the time Trevor Lawrence was not certain to start at QB. Once cleared, Jacksonville became the favorite, and closed at -2.5 before kickoff. Based on my Power Numbers, that was an overcompensated move.

This was not the first time a line moved beyond what was reasonable due to QB news. My ratings showed Tampa -1 if Lawrence played. This was also not the first time Lawrence was questionable, and clearly, he was not 100% healthy. Be careful with line moves involving a QB who is not likely to be at full strength.

I know I sound like a broken record, but for the fifth game in a row, the Kansas City Chiefs faced a team with a positive rest differential. This affects game planning for both sides, and one could see that Mahomes and the Chiefs were not at their best.

As I’ve said, it’s not just who you play, but WHEN you play. The NFL dealt the Chiefs an unreasonable stretch of games, and yet I saw too many handicappers ignore the extra challenges they have had to face. Coupled with the fact that this team is not as good as recent editions, it’s an opportunity lost for people who do not understand how to do proper schedule analysis.

Not all QB changes work out, but two in particular caught my eye this week.

• Mason Rudolph took over for Mitchell Trubisky in Pittsburgh, completing 17 passes for 290 yards and two TD’s.
• Taylor Heinecke replaced Desmond Ridder and his stat line was 23-33 for 229 yards, a TD, and one sack taken.

What I liked was the trust both staffs had in these QB’s. Rudolph was allowed to throw deeper routes, and was ahead of the chains much of the game. The fact that run-oriented Atlanta allowed Heinecke to even attempt 33 passes showed the lack of confidence they had in Ridder.

Maybe for both of them it becomes just a one-week spike, but in my opinion both Rudolph and Heinecke seemed to be better options than the QB’s they replaced.

I wrote in this spot a week ago that Denver was exposed at Detroit. Yes, New England is an underachieving team, but there is no universe where they should have been bet up to -7, let alone -7.5.

As said a week ago, Denver rode positive turnover variance during the win streak. They lost the turnover battle (-1) again on Sunday Night. I’ll say one more thing about the team at the end of the article.

San Francisco lost 33-19 to Baltimore on Monday Night. Let’s not panic. These are the two best teams in the NFL right now, and it’s just one game.

With two weeks left in the regular season, both teams are favorites to secure the coveted #1 seed in their respective conferences. We may see a rematch in February.

Brock Purdy did not have a good game, but let’s not discount the fine work he’s done this season. His supporting cast is excellent, and come playoff time, that makes the 49ers a tough team to stop. No, Purdy may not win the NFL MVP award, but he’s good enough to give the 49ers a chance to win a much bigger prize.

Finally, hats off to the LA Rams, who along with the Tampa Bay Bucs, have reminded us all how important leadership is at Head Coach, and QB.

Sean McVay has overseen a team that is masterful at assembling a game plan that fully incorporates both the run and the pass. A healthy Matthew Stafford is dangerous, and deserving of top ten status.

The names on the defensive jersey’s are not well known outside of Aaron Donald, but the stat sheet is playoff worthy. Road games await at the Giants and at the 49ers. Even if they miss the playoffs, LA overachieved in 2023.

NFL Week 17 – Teams on Watch List

It’s the time of the season where teams start going in different directions. One group will fight to win their division and host at least one playoff game.

Another group will fight just to earn a playoff spot. A 3rd group may have just been eliminated from the playoffs and their season is suddenly over.

Finally, teams outside of the playoffs might be examining their roster to see who they will want to bring back, and who they will cut. This might mean a QB audition, or at other spots, rookies and former role players getting more playing time.

I’ve listed a few teams blow that are on my watch list for a variety of reasons. It’s not even close to being a complete rundown.

Check the local newspapers to see what some coaches may do in the final weeks, such as Ron Rivera in Washington, Brian Daboll in New York, and Jonathan Gannon with a young Arizona squad.

The Detroit Lions just clinched the NFC North. That’s a milestone accomplishment, and they should celebrate such an achievement. I know they are tied for the best record in the NFC, but both the Eagles and 49ers own tiebreaker edges right now. A loss to Dallas might lock them into the #3 seed.

I think there will already be a letdown of some kind this week, and I do not like the spot hosting the Vikings week 18 should the Lions lose this weekend.

I spoke about the LA Rams up above, but they deserve additional mention in this spot. Some teams get overvalued when fighting for a playoff spot, but in this case, the Rams have something nice going for them.

LA plays at the New York Giants this weekend. LA last played on Thursday, 12/21. The Giants just played on Monday, 12/25. That a nice scheduling advantage for a team that has won their last two games at that site by a combined score of 89-28.

New Orleans is 6-8, a full game behind Tampa and tied with Atlanta in the NFC South. They are getting plenty of negative publicity for how things have gone this season.

Don’t sleep on their chances this week. I have yet to run my matchup analysis data, but they play at Tampa this week and host Atlanta week 18. I think we’ll get maximum effort from New Orleans, who will have the extra rest advantage this weekend.

One team that you can begin to disregard would be the Tennessee Titans. Seattle stunned them with a late touchdown, eliminating the 5-10 Titans. The roster purge is only two weeks away as I suspect there will be quite a few changes. I’m not sure what the starting lineup will look like at Houston this week, but I want no part of backing them.

The Chicago Bears are competing hard down the stretch. The Head Coach and QB (Fields) are competing to stay in Chicago. They are 4-2 the last six games, and there have been no blowout losses since late October.

Atlanta comes to Chicago desperately needing a win to stay alive in the NFC South. Atlanta beat them on a 53-yard field goal last year, but I’ll be curious to see what the weather is in Chicago this weekend. Bottom line: Just because a team NEEDS to win does not mean they will win. Atlanta is 7-8 for a reason, and will get Chicago’s best effort.

Finally, how would you like to be Russell Wilson this morning? Reports are that he was running around in circles for much of the game Sunday Night vs. New England.

Sack totals had slowed to a crawl for the Patriots ever since Matthew Judon was lost for the season, but they got to Wilson five times, and Wilson fumbled twice, losing one of those fumbles.

It’s a new staff, but Denver comes into the final two weeks with built up negative late season situations that can’t be ignored. Denver has NOT been eliminated from the playoffs, or even from winning the AFC West, but the body language is not very good right now.

I may not be interested in backing them the rest of the way, and things could get really ugly if they are formally eliminated from the playoffs before their final game, at Las Vegas.

Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and my weekly podcasts with @lasvegascris

Get GoldSheet for Football Betting Tips All Year and Best Bets Today

The Football GoldSheet newsletter is now available for purchase at WagerTalk! From Week 0, in college football all the way through the Super Bowl, get expert analysis, box score recaps, power ratings and much more from the country’s oldest and most popular sports betting newsletter.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen NFL

WagerTalk’s live NFL odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the run spreads, totals and betting percentages for all NFL games.

**************************************************

Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?

• Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
• Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
• Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.

Make sure to bookmark all the above!